Monday, November 26, 2012


A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E. 
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.

More in Vagaries...
Night temp for N,N-W,N-central India will be a bit higher from tomorrow due to the upcoming W.D .. It'll be normal again from 29/30-Nov.
Almost NO rain forecast for entire peninsula from 28-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/1axTN

A moderate W.D will reach W,S-W Kashmir by tomorrow evening .. and expected to persist with Rain/Snow for 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/1axWG 
COLA suggests that Maharastra Anti-cyclone will persist till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8

COLA even predicts that the anti-cyclone will make the entire peninsula DRY from 28-Nov .. http://ow.ly/i/1axM8 
More showers expected for S,S-E Tamilnadu tonight and before tomorrow late evening ... http://ow.ly/i/1axHP 
5pm, Showers slowly creeping into S.Tamilnadu again from Gulf Mannar ... http://ow.ly/i/1awlB 
A circulation is entering into S-E corner bay at this time ... http://ow.ly/i/1auiu

IMD suggests that the circulation will move North into E.Bay and vanish along Myanmar coast on 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aujC

But NOGAPS still persists with a Tamilnadu coast landfall as a Depression on 2-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/1auk9   
12:30pm, Showers seen over Gulf Mannar and seen pushing into S.tip Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1aucP