Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Heavy rain for central,N Andhra coast, S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu on Thursday !!

HELEN has not moved again... but latest ADT analysis show more intensification ... Pressure now around 987mb, Winds upto 110 kmph

Showers expected to start along central,N Andhra coast by morning of Thursday.
This is the 10pm, Satellite IR of Cyclone HELEN, "shows heavy convective activity around the center of system" ... 

For #Chennai, N Tamilnadu coast, if Cyclone Helen moves W-N-W or N-W then there's very LESS chance of rain even after landfall.

In next 12hrs, there's a chance of low level circulation along corner of S-E Arabian sea near S Kerala, more heavy rain for S,central Kerala
Due to S-E Arabian sea circulation, Heavy rain also expected for S tip Tamilnadu during next 36hrs...
Before tomorrow evening showers also expected for #Kochi. May ruin the Ind v WI #Cricket match.

Helen movement

 Location Lat:15.4 Lon:83.8
   Date  Time   Swh        Swell  Wind    Sst    Current
20-NOV-2013 05:30  2.948(SE)  0.838(SW)  24(SE)  27  38
20-NOV-2013 11:30  3.165(SE)  1.012(SE)  24(SE)  27  43
20-NOV-2013 17:30  3.364(SE)  0.853(NW)  28(SE)  27  42
20-NOV-2013 23:30  3.506(SE)  0.802(NW)  31(SE)  27  37
21-NOV-2013 05:30  3.032(SE)  0.778(NW)  26(SE)  27  32
21-NOV-2013 11:30  2.384(SE)  0.925(SW)  21(SE)  27  34
21-NOV-2013 17:30  2.000(SE)  1.015(SW)  20(SE)  27  37
21-NOV-2013 23:30  1.771(SE)  1.051(SW)  17(SE)  27  31
Courtesy :INCOIS
  • It just entered where SST is low [Predicted value]
    The movement is about 20kmph.
    It may emerge coast between Kakinada & Vizakapattinam 
    [near TUNI [17 Deg 17 min N / 82 Deg 36 min East]
    It may take another 12-13 hours to cross coast 
    which is about 260km WNW

Helen - Almost NO movement and Slightly intensified

Latest analysis at 6pm, shows that HELEN has not moved greatly, drifted slightly to W-N-W again.
In fact it has intensified slightly.
Latest pressure at core is around 992mb and winds reaching upto 100 kmph.
Positioned at 15.41 N, 84.01 E at 6pm.

Visible satellite shot at 4:45pm, show GOOD convective activity around its center.

Wind analysis at 5:30pm show, high winds of above 65kmph around center.

Computer Models still consider a Near Nellore, Ongole landfall as Cyclone by evening / late evening of 21-Nov, Thursday.
JTWC has forecast a path towards central Andhra coast, between Ongole - Bapatla - Machilipatnam

What are the present forces acting on the Cyclone?
There are anti-cyclones at low levels over North Arabian Sea and over central Arabian sea at upper levels. These can guide the system to move in a W-S-W direction in next 12hrs.
And moreover the models expect the central Arabian sea (upper level) Anti-cyclone to move into South Peninsula in next 18hrs and this can weaken the Cyclone before landfall.

Wind and Rainfall forecast ::
Latest RADAR image from Visakapatnam shows the Cyclone over its South and Machilipatnam RADAR starting to show HELEN over its East at around 200 to 250km from coast.

Going by latest status and model forecasts.
Central, North Andhra coast to start receiving light to moderate rain with winds gusts from morning / mid morning of Thursday. Rain and wind intensity will start to increase after from mid-noon tomorrow.
S Andhra coast is in for moderate rain from mid-noon tomorrow.
N.Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai can get showers only after the landfall, that is after midnight of 21-Nov.

Cyclone HELEN

04B is now officially named as Cyclone Helen. 
At 12:20pm, it is not seen moving during past 4hrs.
Pressure around 993mb.

#Chennai - as of latest model analysis, the city is expected to get LESS or NO rain till evening of 21-Nov.
RT @rajugana: Bangalore 9.45am, Clear skies, mist / foggy morning. Cool n breezy.. a pic @ Varthur lake 

#Chennai - 10:20am, Warm with breeze from N-N-W. Current temperature is 31 C.

9:30am, analysis show 04B has intensified and may be named as Cyclone Helen.

04B may become as a named Cyclone as "Helen" as it is showing GOOD intensification during past 6hrs.
One Recent analysis of "04B", show a pressure drop of around 984mb and ADT analysis at 9:30am suggest pressures around 993mb.
Recent ADT analysis of 04B even suggest a S-W movement during past 4hrs... after making a brief N-W drift... 
9:30am, Visible Satellite shot also supports the intensification and the Organized nature of the Storm... 
At present N-E Andhra coast is getting cloudy with a high cloud cover.

04B - Now a weak Cyclone and has drifted W-N-W. Landfall near Ongole expected !

Analysis at 5:30am, show that "04B" has attained Cyclone strength and has tracked W-N-W .. 
Wind analysis show a good organized center with pressure around 996mb and winds upto 90 kmph ...
ADT analysis at 7:30am indicates, Pressure around 992mb and winds gusting to 98 kmph.
And it has drifted N-W above 16 th parallel.
Here's the 7:30am satellite visible shot of Cyclone "04B" ... 
As of now, "04B" is expected to drift W-S-W in next 6 hrs and make landfall near Ongole, Andhra in next 36hrs.