Monday, May 06, 2013

"91B" and "92B" - Two circulations !!

According to NRL,
"91 B" is now located over 7.4 N , 74.3 E.
"92 B" is Fresh and located over 5.5 N , 87.9 E

Latest analysis show that the circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf mannar, S-E corner Arabian sea).

8pm, Satellite IR shows TWO circulations and its cloud activities...

Latest COLA model suggests a Depression over S. Bay on 10-May, and expects the system to move N-W after that.

IMD GFS model suggests almost the same, but after that it expects the system to move North into Bay.

All together a different track is projected by NOGAPS model. A depression is expected to form just S-E of Srilanka on 10-May and drift into Srilanka and then into Gulf Mannar in subsequent days. This is highly unlikely.

7pm, Going by the latest Satellite shot, still the Bay circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar)

Today, a weak low level circulation is seen along E.Uttarpradesh and Bihar, it's trough can be seen upto S-W Karnataka 

And a weak circulation over North N-E states still persists !

The North South trough from Bihar, E.Uttarpradesh is expected to persist for another 2 days ... 

In next 2 days, T.showers to continue for most of Kerala, S,W.Tamilnadu ... 

Some T.showers also expected over S,N,N-E Karnataka and into N,N-W Andhra till Wednesday...

Heavy T.showers to continue for N, central, S-E Bengal ... 

Scattered Heavy T.showers to continue over most of N-E states and Sikkim ... 
7:50pm, Kolkata airport is reporting "Rain with Thunderstorm" 

7pm, Massive T.showers seen over S,central Kerala, W.Tamilnadu, S-W Karnataka, E.Maharastra, N-W Andhra, N-E Odisha 

7pm, Massive T.showers also seen over S,S-W,central Bengal as well ...

Monsoon Watch - 4 2013 Quantum Analysis, Part -1.....Full Note on Vagaries...

#Chennai - Yesterday max = 37.7 C. Today from 11am its cloudy with a thin high cloud cover, temp at 3:40pm = 33 C with Sea breeze from E-S-E

Yesterday, #HOT S.Peninsula ... Nizamabad, Kadappa and Gulbarga recorded the highest maximum temperature of 43 C
RT @aknarendranath: Cyclonic churn over Bay put under close watch - Business Line @weatherofindia 

RT @bumblme: Monday 3:00 PM: and it is 42°C / 108°F in #Hyderabad @weatherofindia 

3pm, reports of Heavy T.shower over S.tip Tamilnadu ... #Nagercoil

2:30pm, Heavy T.shower seen over S.tip Tamilnadu and over Gulf Mannar ... 

3:30pm, T.showers seen over S.Jharkand, N-E Chatisgarh and into S-W Bengal .. T.cells popping over Odisha, N-E Andhra 

#HOT at 3:30pm, Nagpur airport = 47 C, Hyderabad = 43 C, Ahmedabad = 42 C, Delhi = 40 C, Lucknow = 37 C, Kolkata = 34 C, Bangalore = 33 C.