Sunday, April 25, 2010

RT @keralatourism: Vembanad Kayal & Kumarakom, Kerala, India
RT @keralatourism: Vembanad Kayal & Kumarakom, Kerala, India
RT @hashkochi: RT @Jinurocks :Heavy raining over..i think wind destroyed many of d farm ,but its a cool soothing breeze in this hot weather.
RT @hashkochi: RT @Jinurocks :Heavy raining over..i think wind destroyed many of d farm ,but its a cool soothing breeze in this hot weather.
RT @methala: Heavy premonsoon rains @ kochi (7:18pm)
6:30pm, Some showers still over N. Tamilnadu and Heavy showers over central Kerala and along W. Ghats ..
6:30pm, Thunder storms over S-W Pakistan and over west Rajasthan ..
RT @Ssaaju: @Ssaaju @weatherofindia raining now :))) (4:38pm)
RT @Ssaaju: It's goin darker nw in whitefield b'lore , windy n it's goin to rain again .. :))) wat a Sunday :))) @weatherofindia
RT @AlertNet Today's World Malaria Day. Check out special coverage page with interviews, features and photos malaria
3:30pm, Isolated thunder cells over N. Tamilnadu and over Kodaikanal & Munnar mountains..
RT @AlertNet: Sandstorm & heavy snow sever vital air link to China's earthquake zone, severely affecting relief efforts
Surprise!!, a thunder storm is sweeping over S-E Rajasthan for the past 2 hrs..
2pm, Signs of thunder cells over N-E corner and South of A.P.
Karnataka to launch ‘Green Bangalore’ project ...
RT @praveen_j: Incredibly Kerala RT:@rajumons: Wat a pleasure trip it was.Frsh smell of rain nd nice green scenery !..really enjoyed.
RT @savetreeandmore: SaveTreesSaveMoney blog update Silent Valley National Park,Kerala,India -Rain Forests of India
1:30pm, Thunder squalls already over West Orissa bordering Chatisgarh. Some signs of showers over extreme S Kerala & TN.
RT @rajesh26: Different trend.S Mumbai. (36c) xperiancing hotter days than S'cruz (34c) last 15 dys.S'cruz low "falls" to 24c today,from 27c
China builds world's highest dam, India fears water theft ...
India Meteorological Department Moots Dynamic Models To Forecast Monsoon..
South west Monsoon forecasting ...!! .. interesting ...

South west Monsoon forecasting ...!!

IMD's long range forecast has only one thing of interest, that is its prediction that this year its going to be 98% of long term average. But it does not specify which regions would get more rain and which regions would get less. As 98% would be a country wide weighted mean; and india is a big counry, there's still a possibility of some part/parts having droughts/less rain.
IMD should improve its forecast, make it more informative and make it more interactive. I see some room for improvement in these quarters. And one more thing: Why isn't IMD including weather data and readings from regions and countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet,Bangladesh,Burma and Srilanka. My guess is, the readings from these regions/countries would definitely play a crucial in monsoon forecasting. Monsoon is regional phenomenon and monsoon winds do not recognize political boundaries.I am sure the premonsson conditions in pakistan and tibet plays as important role in monsoon generation process.
Posted by Mr. Neeraj
SAARC nations comprises India, Pakistan, Bangaladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan and Srilanka and there is co operation on weather among SAARC nations.
Though Monsoon is regional, it spreads further into Asia up to China. That why it is known as Asian Summer Monsoon.
But contrary to your belief, the [SW]monsoon winds originate from SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE near 30 Deg South and 60 Deg East in south INDIAN OCEAN.(Say, near Mauritius)
[1] The Southern Hemisphere MASCERENE HIGH plays a crucial role in determining Asian Summer Monsoon winds.
[2] The position of this HIGH pressure depends upon ENSO
[3] Further ENSO has its influence of the Sea surface Temperatures in Eastern Pacific i.e East of 180 East International Date Line.
[4] The land heating (or the heat low)in Jacobabath in Pakistan
[5] The Sub Tropical Westerly Jet zonal flow & the Sub Tropical High [STH] position over Himalayas and Tibet etc. etc also matters. These climatological factors are also taken in to consideration along with major predictors. But their influence may be in lesser scales than compared to the influence of Masceren High, SOI and other major predictors.
Region specific LRF can be tried or attempted provided the local climatological influence is properly understood or accounted and ensemble evolved accordingly.
In our country other agencies lick C-DAC, Center for atmospheric Sciences [IISc], SAC and few Agricultural Universities including TNAU are releasing advance forecast about monsoon RAINFALL. More or less some of them are regional specific.

posted by Mr. Anonymous
Myanmar is not a SAARC member but Afghanistan is. And yes, i do have some knowledge about where SW monsoon starts. I was just pointing out to the fact that Pakistan and Tibet also plays a role and i feel that these things are not given due importance. Overall prediction of course depends on the important factors that you have pointed out. But other factors will surely help to fine tune the whole thing. And yes, though Burma and China are not in SAARC, i again like to point out that SW Monsoon does not recognize any boundaries.
And on another note, all the countries in this region and particularly those in SAARC should cooperate much more as the economy and livelihood of the people in these regions depend on SW Monsoon.Maybe India can provide some assistance in weather data collection in SAARC countries.
Posted by Mr. Neeraj
@bawejaaakash >> If possible please try to post real time weather updates from your city "Delhi". Thanks
@Ssaaju >> Some strong western disturbance(WD) crossing from Pakistan may give heavy showers and reduce the heat. Another WD is in 48hr.
@bawejaaakash >> Before 15-May the city may experience one or two DUST storms with mild showers. SW-Monsoon will arrive after 25-Jun-2010.
@bawejaaakash >> Delhi is expected to get some pre-monsoon thunder showers after 15-May.
@Ssaaju >> If possible please report about weather happenings and report from your place. Where are you from ? Thanks
Rain on 24-Apr, Showers over S-S-W Karnataka and over Kerala ..
Rain on 24-Apr, Heavy and widespread over N-E states (it's like N-E states are enjoying an early Monsoon)...
Moisture incursion is taking place over West Bengal... Heavy afternoon thunder squalls expected for another 48 hrs. ... Fresh western disturbance over Punjab and Kashmir in another 48 hrs.
Heat wave conditions are prevailing over isolated pockets of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.
On 24-Apr, Highest Maximum temperature of 44.7 °C was recorded at Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh).
Chennai - So far this summer, the stiff S-E breeze all along has not allowed the temperature to go beyond 37 deg C
Chennai - now 12:03pm is at a moderate 34.7°C , Humidity 59% and with mild S-E breeze.
11am, N-E states are receiving heavy showers again, south peninsula is getting ready to host another round of TS ..
8:30am, Gulf of Mannar was having an active thunder storm ..
Early hour thunder cells along Kerala coast over Sea will normally occur during MID of may. We are having it for the past 3 days.
Early hour thunder showers along Kerala coast are signs of early South-west Monsoon, Sat shot at 5:30am..
RT @rajesh26: @weatherofindia On 24-Apr, Mumbai remains hot at 36c today with clear sky.Thane (suburb) jumps to 39.4 (AWS reading).