Thursday, November 21, 2013

Helen now close to coast



HELEN
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis
                      UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                  ADT-Version 8.1.5               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  21 NOV 2013   
      Time :   143000 UTC

      Lat :   16:05:49 N 
      Lon :   82:44:39 E

    
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
 4.4 / 977.9mb/ 74.6kt

    
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.0     3.7     3.2

 Center Temp : -67.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C


  1. The vertical development is curtailed
  2. Laterally it has expanded and started diffusing. 3. It neared very close to coast near Kakinada and may expect it to cross soon within few hours
HELEN, now very near to land and signs of weakening seen !
A W.D system is expected to affect Kashmir, N Punjab on 23-Nov.

As of now, Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu (except for S tip Tamilnadu) during next 2 days !

5:30pm, A LOW is slowly drifting into S-E corner of Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3Nbry 

T showers expected to continue over S,central Kerala, W,S-W W-ghats of Tamilnadu and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

#COLD conditions over N,N-W,N-central,W,central, East #India to continue during next 2 nights.

Helen - Heavy rain along N-central Andhra coast, No weakening seen yet, 190km S-S-E of Kakinada

At 5:30pm, Cyclone HELEN has not shown any weakness, it has drifted to West now.
Pressure around 978 mb
Winds reaching to 135 kmph.

Latest RADAR shows, Rain have pushed into N-central,central Andhra coast.
6:40pm, Now it is around 195 km from Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.

Satellite IR at 6pm, shows major Cloud mass has started to push into Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.


JTWC, NAVGEM expects the system to drift W-S-W in next 12hrs and make landfall near Machilipatnam, on noon of Friday.
But the Cyclone may push West or W-N-W from now on, and make landfall along Mahilipatnam to Kakinada coastline in next 12hrs.

Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for people and properties along central Andhra coast. 

HELEN - Drifting N-N-W and maintaining same intensity. 200km S-E from Kakinada

Analysis at 1pm, show that the system has slowly move N-N-W, maintaining its intensity.
Now positioned at around 200km S-E from Kakinada.
Pressure around 978 mb.
Winds gusting upto 130 kmph.

Going by latest movement and travel speed, the Landfall can take place along Kakinada and Machilipatnam coast in next 12hrs.

1:30pm, Satellite visible and Visakapatnam RADAR image suggests Rain has started along N coast Andhra, even into Visakapatnam.

High winds reaching to 130 kmph and HEAVY rain are expected along coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Showers with High winds can push into S Odisha as well in next 18hrs.

Helen - Drifted N-W and Intensified. 250km E-S-E from Machilipatnam

During past 10hrs, Cyclone HELEN has not moved significantly, in fact it has only drifted N-W.
Latest ADT analysis suggest that the system has intensified by dropping pressure from 992mb to 980mb.
Present wind gusts are upto 130 kmph.
Location is 15.33 N , 83.51 E... around 250 km E-S-E from Machilipatnam.

Visible shot at 8:30am, reveals there is heavy convective activity around its center.

Now the predicted landfall is near Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Since the movement is very slow, LESS rain activity seen along coastline.
Some rain seen pushing into N-coast of Andhra above Machilipatnam.

Almost NO rain expected along N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai till evening, unless the system makes a W-S-W movement.

Helen at 5:30am, 21-Nov-2013



HELEN
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
                      UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                  ADT-Version 8.1.5               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  21 NOV 2013    Time :   000000 UTC
          Lat :   15:25:43 N     Lon :   83:50:02 E

    
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.7 / 989.0mb/ 59.0kt

    
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.5     3.7     3.7

 Center Temp : -72.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

 Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN        
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF  

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   58km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1008mb

 Satellite Name :    MET7
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.7 degrees

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