Monday, May 25, 2009

Kolkata getting ready for cyclone "Aila"

Kolkata getting ready to face cyclone "Aila".
Here's the latest satellite pic

and JTWC warning text and projected path.

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250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 88.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (AILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AROUND A MORE
SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A
242023Z 85H TRMM PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TC 02B IS
BEING STEERED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BY A MID-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 KNOTS ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA
BEFORE TAU 12. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20
FEET.
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South west monsoon is moving into area upto northern Kerala.
Nagercoil - Is very windy with sprinkles of rain over night. Now 7:40am, it's very windy with high cloud cover.
Latest GFS predicts more rain for southern Kerala.