Heat coming down.

Chennai has experienced some cruel days during the month of May-08.
Take a look at the last 5 days temperatue chart...

May month's highest recorded temperature was 42.9°C.

Now that the South-west wind has come up, the temperature has come down and moreover we are experiencing some CHILL winds during afternoons & evenings.

South west monsoon is near..

As we can see the early signs of Southwest winds and rains over South bay.

"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during next 48 hours."... reported by IMD.

Going by the latest satellite pic also we can see the monsoon cloud mass and the direction of air current.

Here in Chennai, humidity is bit low and the daily average Max temperature stands at 40 degrees celcius.
Here is the past 5 days humidity chart.

For the past 3 days including today (13-May-08) some parts of Chennai was experiencing some Electric showers.
Since the south west winds has started coming up during evenings, it's bringing in some moisture and lowering the temperature.
This condition will increase in activity and Chennai will have a nice WET electric evening in days to come.
Expect it!!

The path of destruction..."Nargis"

Some cruel remains of "Nargis"

"Nargis" - Aftermath

The effect of Cyclone Nargis on Burma (Myanmar) has been devastating and international relief is only trickling into the country. The military junta continues to bar access to most international disaster relief specialists and continues to block aid. So a natural disaster threatens to become a a humanitarian crisis of genuinely epic proportions.
With 22,500 dead and 41,000 missing, most of them from a massive storm surge that washed over the Irrawaddy delta, it is the most devastating cyclone to hit Asia since 1991, when 143,000 people died in neighbouring Bangladesh.
Without proper sanitation and clean water people still scavenging in the inundated remains of their homes could fall victim to waterborne diseases-----cholera, dysentery, dengue and malaria epidemics spreading among survivors is a frightening possibility. Burma is on the brink of a “devastating public health crisis” if help is not allowed to flow across its borders immediately.
The UN says that 'thousands of bodies' were floating in nearly 2,000 square miles of the flooded Irrawaddy delta.The junta's refusal of international humanitarian aid is, the UN laments, “unprecedented”. The United Nations has said that it had a responsibility to protect' the civilians victims of crimes against humanity regardless of whether sovereign governments wanted them to or not.

Temperature Rising

For the past 5 days Chennai's Maximum and Minimum temperature has been on the rise...
Take a look at the chart.

Max of 41.9 degrees
This will be the case for most of next 10 days.
Take lots of fresh water...to stay away from the harms of such temperatures.

IMD on "Nargis"

Morning’s Cyclonic Storm “Nargis” over southwest and adjoining southeast and west-central Bay of Bengal near Lat. 13.00 N and Long 85.50 E, about 550 Km east of Chennai, remained practically stationary and intensified into Severe Cyclonic Storm at 1430 hours IST of today afternoon, the 28th April 2008. The current meteorological analysis and Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction slowly for some more time. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve and move northeastwards.

TC - 01B "Nargis"

Now the tropical cyclone is given a name... "Nargis"
Take a look at the latest position and it's predicted movement.

In chennai though, it's HOT, very humid and high cloud cover. The high cloud cover is due to the outer ring of the cyclone.
Chennai is clear from it's threat.
According to the JWTC and some numeric forecast, the cyclone was predicted days before that it won't hit Chennai OR even any part of India.

TC - 01

The summer superstar "Tropical Cyclone TC-01".
Take a look at the latest satellite pics ...


And the latest JWTC forecast of the TC...

All of a sudden

In chennai the summer heat is building by the day.. take a look at the last 5 days Temperature chart.

As we have monitored the south bay for the past 3 months, there was considerable activity... NOW all of a sudden a cloud mass has developed into a well marked LOW pressure system., then today it's a Tropical Depression laid center at 750KM east-southeast of Chennai.
Take a look at the development of the system and the latest PIC of the system.


Both JWTC and Indian Met department are tracking it as a potential tropical cyclone.
According to Indian Met office report...
"Yesterday's low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal has intensified in to a depression and lay centred at eight thirty hrs IST of 27th April within half a degree of latitude twelve degrees north and longitude eighty seven degrees east at about seven hundred fifty kilometres east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction."

But according to the JWTC/US Navy prediction...

the system is predicted to move in a North-East direction.

Even the COLA numeric forecast also suggests same as JWTC..
If it moves West or North-west... we (Chennai) might be on the way.
Let's wait for tomorrow and we'll see the direction.
Remember during 1st week of May-2004 a same kind of tropical depression crossed Chennai and South Andhra.

Some heavy showers down south

Thru the last week there was heavy activity over the Southern extreme end of Tamilnadu OR India.
Take a look at the Satellite pic dated ....

It clearly shows a small tropical low system moved from South-Bay crossing Srilanka and Then brushing the Southern Tip.
This caused widespread very heavy rain over that region.

Take a look at the present satellite pic, the South-bay is somewhat calm after 2 months of intense activity.
This calm is not going to be long...!

Something wrong over south-Bay

Take a look at the latest sat pic...

we can see a small swirl near to Srilanka...
After 133 yrs the south tamilnadu is experiencing a monsoon like weather during this time of the year.
Here in Chennai, it's almost clear less humid and hot with Hi: 34.7°C @ 1:19pm.

Heat is slowly picking up!

In Chennai the heat is slowly picking up, for the past 5 days it was around 33°C.
The humidity is also high, so it's sultry day and mild nights.

Still the wind direction is from South-East and this is favorable for an electric shower.
The southern tamilnadu is experiencing some electric showers then and there.
Still we can see the south BAY is active with upper cyclonic circulation and the Sea temperature is also a bit high.

"92B", no threat

As the numeric forecast suggested the "92B" dissipated around the central bay.
Chennai is experiencing the HEAT again for the first time in this Initial Summer burst..
Yesterday's Hi: 35.2°C @ 10:30am Low: 27.2°C @ 6:25am
But at around 1:30 PM there was widespread electric showers...it was heavy at places.
And recorded a 16mm for the day.
Today is April-1 "April Fool's Day"...but this day will mark the start of Summer-2008 for Chennai.
For the past 5 days, the wind direction is again favorable for the moisture from the sea to set in around mid-noon and then later develop into an electric shower.

Another thing, going by the satellite pic we can see the south bay area is still very much active.
I think we can expect a Hot, Humid and Wet APRIL.

Latest update on "92B"

This is the latest satellite pic... it seems the system has gained strength and moved north. Now it's almost parallel to Chennai and expected movement is north,...presently it's moving north.
Take a look at the latest bulletin from US Navy,
----------------
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 89.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF IMPROVED PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND CONTINUED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. A PARTIAL 281457Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, BUT BETTER ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AT THE CENTER AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO HELP FUEL THE CONVECTION. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

Tropical Depression "92B"

We are tracking a tropical low pressure system "92B".
For the past week the southern bay of bengal was very active.
Past week's tropical disturbance was due to the sudden rise is sea temperatures over the south bay. Take a look at the past week and present sea temperature...


Now coming to the tropical low "92B"...first take a look at the satellite pics of last 3 days and now.



This system is quiet a huge one with good moisture feed from the rising sea temperature. The upper cyclonic circulation over the south central bay is still there...this will make the system to sustain.
However some numeric forecasts predict that the system will die down in another 3 days almost near the same location. Anyway keep your fingers crossed till next 48 hrs.
Take a look at the US Navy picture of the sysem.