Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years:
(Must be global warming -:))).

Analysis of ice cores, drilled at Law Dome just inland from Australia’s Casey Station in the Antarctic shows increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years.

But inevitably global warming is then invoked on the basis of speculation and correlations.

Dr van Ommen said the ice cores provide a record of annual variations in snowfall and provide a record that stretches back over 750 years.“Over the past 30 years, the cores indicate that there has been a significant increase in snowfall in that area,” he said.“The snowfall increase we see in the last 30 years lies well outside the natural range recorded over the past 750 years,” Dr van Ommen said.

“This inversely correlates to the occurrence of a significantly lower rainfall and subsequent drought that has been experienced in the southwest of Western Australia. “So when there’s extra moisture at Law Dome, the same circulation pattern is starving Western Australia of moisture.”

Further work is underway to explore these connections and understand the reasons behind them. However, these events of greater snowfall in the Antarctic and drought in WA also coincide with human induced changes in the atmosphere that may be contributing to global warming.

The item only becomes newsworthy because of this “coincidence” and the speculation that this increased snowfall may be linked to the drought with reduced precipitation in Western Australia which may be linked to “global warming” !!

But the tag “global warming” brings in the funding.

Today is Climate Fools Day. Celebrate it!

"The climate has gone up and down for billions of years.
It’s been much hotter and much colder.
The temperature has gone up and down slower and faster.
There has been much more and much less CO2 in the atmosphere.
Other planets in the solar system are changing at the same rate as earth.    

Why is it any different now? 

Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”

This is a quote from Dr. Richard Lindzen. He is one of the world’s most respected climatologists, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor of Atmospheric Science.

Global warming hysteria is on the retreat. Each October 26th is celebrated as a day of remembrance that the fight against pseudo-science must go on, and we must be ever vigilant. 

On this occasion, we bring you this excellent posting by Anthony Watts - "Today is Climate Fools Day."

Read more here
N-E monsoon first Cyclone expected to form over S-S-E. Bay on Diwali day 5-Nov-2010.
A Low level circulation is expected over S. Bay on 29-Oct... this will start the N-E monsoon along the Tamilnadu coast.

Rain from Typhoon Megi ... a report

Though a storm’s strength is gauged by wind speed, tropical cyclones also pose a hazard because of the intense rain they bring to a region. This image shows the heavy rain Super-typhoon Megi unleashed as it tracked west across the Pacific between October 13 and October 23, 2010. The heaviest rainfall—more than 600 millimeters or nearly 24 inches—appears in dark blue. The lightest rainfall—less than 75 millimeters or 3 inches—appears in light green.
The storm’s track is superimposed on the rainfall map. Megi formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on October 13, 2010. It quickly strengthened to a named storm, and three days after forming, had grown to a super typhoon. In general, rainfall roughly matches the storm track, especially west and northwest of the Philippines.
Over the northern Philippines, Megi cut a wide swath of destruction, destroying homes and accounting for at least 28 deaths, according to the Associated Press. As the storm track indicates, Megi reached its greatest intensity immediately east of the Philippines. The storm weakened slightly after October 17, but remained powerful across the northern Philippines.
Over the South China Sea, Megi re-strengthened somewhat before making landfall along the Chinese coast. The storm dropped heavy precipitation along a curving path between the Philippines and China.
Away from the storm track, areas of heavy rainfall appear east of Taiwan, where torrential rains led to deadly landslides. The Associated Press reported that, as of October 24, floods and landslides had killed as many as 31 people in that island nation. United Daily News reported that the heavy rains in Taiwan might have resulted from interactions between Megi and monsoon weather patterns northeast of the storm.
This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

7.7 Magnitude Quake off Sumatra on 25-Oct-2010

At 9:42 p.m. local time (14:42 UTC) on October 25, 2010, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of Indonesia. The quake struck 20.6 kilometers (12.8 miles) below the floor of the ocean, spawning a 3-meter (10-foot) tsunami on Pagai Island. Pagai is accessible only by boat, and rough seas prevented rescue workers from reaching the island immediately after the disaster. Within roughly 24 hours of the quake, however, news reports told of more than 100 casualties and as many as 500 people missing.
This image shows the region where the earthquake and numerous aftershocks occurred on October 25 and 26, 2010. Bathymetry appears in shades of blue, and topography appears in shades of brown. Thin black lines delineate coastlines, and a thick black line marks the fault line in this region. The epicenter of the 7.7-magnitude earthquake appears as a red star. Aftershocks appear as red circles, with bigger circles indicating stronger aftershocks.
West of Sumatra, a string of islands runs southeast-northwest. Nearest the epicenter, Pagai is divided into two parts: Pagai Utara in the northwest, and Pagai Selatan in the southeast. Tiny islands fringe Pagai Selatan’s western side. Pagi and its tiny neighbors evidently bore the brunt of the high water.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the October 25 quake resulted from thrust faulting along the subduction zone where the Australia Plate slides below the Sunda Plate. Relative to the Sunda Plate, the Australia Plate moves toward the north-northeast at roughly 57–69 millimeters per year. The USGS described the October 25 event as the latest in a series of ruptures. The quake occurred roughly 800 kilometers (500 miles) south of the 9.1-magnitude earthquake that struck December 26, 2004. Tsunamis from that earthquake killed more than a quarter million people.
Located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesia experiences considerable seismic activity, in both earthquakes and volcanoes. On October 26, 2010, the Australian Government’s Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre reported that Mount Merapi on the Indonesian island of Java (southeast of Sumatra) erupted, releasing plumes of volcanic ash.
Bay is getting very active as the Easterlies is slowly filling into S-E Bay ...
6pm, Heavy showers now engulfing most of Kerala, S. Karnataka and W & N-W Tamilnadu ...
RT @weatherplanet: Record Number Of Cosmic Rays Hit Earth In 2009.
RT @alertnet: VIDEO: Climate change raises flood risk for Asia s coastal cities GdnDevNetwork disaster
2:30pm, Massive thunder showers sweeping most N. Tamilnadu, S. Karnataka and N. Kerala ..
12:30pm, Heavy thunder showers along N. Tamilnadu coast and N. Kerala ...
IMD :: North-East monsoon may break out by Friday, 29-Oct ..

IMD :: North-East monsoon may break out by Friday

The launch window for north-east monsoon has been thrown open with India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the seasonal rains may break out over Tamil Nadu and adjoining peninsular India around Friday.
Coinciding with the launch phase, a weather system has been forecast to wash over along the Chennai coast Sunday/Monday to bring heavy rains over Chennai and the rest of the Tamil Nadu coast.

Prevailing wind pattern suggested that the westerly winds may be entering the last lap over Peninsular India, if not entirely swept away by the north-easterlies turning easterlies more to the south.
The easterlies are shown to rapidly gather steam across the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Peninsular India to strike up a steady cruise by Friday when the onset of north-east monsoon is expected to happen.
The build-up to Friday as seen by the IMD indicated that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south coastal Orissa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Kerala and Interior Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

International models did not indicate any major weather system (monsoon depressions or cyclones) materialising as part of the north-east monsoon entourage until during the first week of November.
The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), however, predicts the formation of a low-pressure area over South-east Bay of Bengal by November 5, up to which forecasts were available.
Significantly on Tuesday, the IMD saw the south-west monsoon exiting large parts of East, Central and Peninsular India in one fell swoop paving the way for the monsoon on retreat or north-east monsoon.

The system had withdrawn from Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat; most parts of West Bengal and Sikkim; parts of Orissa, more parts of Chhattisgarh, most of Vidarbha, parts of Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan; North Arabian Sea and parts of Central Arabian Sea.
Forecast until Sunday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have fallen two to three deg Celsius below normal over some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh ahead of the onset of winter over north-west India.
Forecasts indicated that minimum temperatures would fall by one to two deg Celsius over Indo-Gangetic plains and East India during the next three days.
Chennai - Having good low cloud formation and few thunder cells seen over W-S-W of Chennai. Good wind from N-W. Mild temp. at 32.3 deg C
Wave after wave of heavy N-E showers will start for N. Tamilnadu coast from 30-Oct.
N-E monsoon current will be over Tamilnadu coast from midnight of 28-Oct.. N-E Showers expected from morning of 29-Oct.
11am sat shot shows the associated heavy cloud activity over S-E Bay...
Low level easterlies is already over S-E Bay over Andhaman islands ..
A low pressure system is expected on 29-Oct just S-E of Srilanka and travel towards S-E Tamilnadu on 31-Oct...
5:30am, A minor low level circulation is along N. Tamilnadu coast and another one taking shape over S. Bay ...
Chennai - goin to be another showery afternoon