Monday, October 14, 2013

NEM Watch -3

The current ENSO trend, which is neutral and the MJO, which shows  a weak phase till the 21st, and a "neutral phase from the 22nd till end of October. 

A rapid movement of the ITCZ towards the South, we see Easterlies picking up along the TN coast from Wednesday.
NE winds start their domination from Tuesday.
However, it can be assumed, seeing the November MJO and Easterly wave flow, with a couple of strong systems from the Bay, the NEM will be near normal in Chennai (Normal = 822 mms .Expected 800 mms). Overall we see the NEM can be above normal by 10% in TN (All TN average = 440 mms. Expected 500 mms) and about 10% above Normal in Vellor (Normal 414 mms. Expected 450 mms).
Bangalore may get its normal share of 225 mms for the season.
From the current trends, it seems the NEM will set in around the 22nd of October.We can assume the NEM to remain weak to moderate till the end of October. We see the Monsoon strengthening only in November.

On Wednesday, a low form in the Southern parts of the Bay, around the 10N/12N line.
The Low moves westwards, and gets embedded in an Easterly trough East off Sri Lanka along the 10/11N line. But due to lack of favourable parameters, it is apperant the easterly wave lacks strength, and may precipiatate only around Sri Lanka region (East coast)...

Chennai will get brisk East winds from Wednesday as a result.
As a line of wind discontinuity forms in the Southern Peninsula Interiors, we get thunder showers in interior TN and Karnataka from Tuesday thru the week.But, Thunder Showers in Chennai city on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bangalore gets good thunder showers from Tuesday thru this week, due to the LWD.

from vagaries