Saturday, May 22, 2010

Readings as on 22nd. May: IT's 51c !!
Highest in Asia:Larkana (Pakistan): 51c, Sibi (Pakistan) 50c, Jacobabad: 50c.Incidently,the evening humidity in Larkana was 5%.
Highest in India: Ganganagar: 48.9c,Hissar: 48.0c,Jaisalmer:47.7c, Kota:46.7c.
Hottest Night:Jodhpur:31.0c, Ahamdabad:30.6c.


That's Hot ! Its the desert state of Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan that is bearing the brunt of very gruelling heat! Highs of 51c in Pakistan and 48.9c in India now,is hopefully going to shape up the "tardy" development of the seasonal low in Rajasthan/Sindh. A core pressure of 998 hpa is now prevailing, but its been the same since "Laila's" formation. Forecasts show it the pressure coming in the region down to 996 hpa, by the 25th.of May.
7:30pm, Huge thunder cells over central Pakistan, Kashmir, N-E Karnataka and over N-W Andhra... http://ow.ly/i/1HpS
7:30pm, Signs of LOW system of "Laila" emerging along Orissa coast .. http://ow.ly/i/1HpS
IMD :: south-west monsoon has advanced into some parts of Comorin area just to the south of Kerala... http://ow.ly/1Oxsf

Monsoon reaches Sri Lanka & South Extreme India


The south-west monsoon has advanced into some parts of Comorin area just to the south of Kerala, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said late on Friday.
The seasonal rains have also covered the remaining parts of south-east Bay, more parts of south-west Bay and east-central Bay and some parts of west-central and northeast Bay of Bengal.
Conditions are favourable for its further advance into some parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of south-west Bay, some more parts of west-central, east-central and north Bay of Bengal during next three days.
Importantly, the monsoon has made an onset over Sri Lanka, the penultimate stopover before it breaks over Kerala, at least five days ahead of normal date of May 25.
If the current pattern sustains, the onset over Kerala should happen during the next week itself, as projected lately by the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services.
In what are first comments on the emerging weather in the Arabian Sea, the IMD may have just indicated that monsoon flows are in tact despite the nuisance value of erstwhile cyclone “Laila”.
The IMD also noticed persistence of convection over many parts of Bay of Bengal, apart from strengthening and deepening of the westerly winds and increase of the pressure gradient.
Meanwhile, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University in its latest update indicated enhanced probability of excess rains for almost the entire western half of the country from July-August-September (JAS).

FLOODING RAINS?

According to experts, this might translate as flooding rain for these parts from mid-July onwards from a monsoon powered by an emerging La Nina in the equatorial and west Pacific.
Ahead of this, June-July-August (JJA) is forecast to feature enhanced probability for normal rainfall for the country as a whole, but west Uttar Pradesh might witness excess precipitation.
August-September-October (ASO), too, as in the case of JAS, is likely to see excess rains for the west of the country but with lesser north-to-south spread.
Probability for enhanced rains through this period would be high east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, western Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, north Kerala and north Tamil Nadu.
Excess rains to the west and peninsular west of the country is known to carry the signature of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Indian Ocean equivalent of the El Nino-La Nina phenomenon, but with a more direct impact on Indian monsoon.


IOD PHASE

The IOD is said to be positive (negative) when the sea-surface temperature is high over West Indian Ocean (East Indian Ocean). By the same token, a negative IOD is expected to have an adverse impact on concurrent rains over India.
Meanwhile on Friday, erstwhile cyclone ‘Laila' weakened twice over to become a depression and lay anchored over Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh, the IMD said in an update.
Current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is likely to weaken further and move in a north-northeasterly direction.

Widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during the next 12 hours and decrease in intensity thereafter.
Fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls, is likely over Orissa during the next one day and more. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next two days.
Squally winds reaching 45 to 55 km/hr in speed and gusting to 65 km/hr are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during the next 12 hours.
The sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
The IMD continued to cite numerical weather model predictions suggesting the possibility of the remnant of ‘Laila' to crawl out into the North Bay of Bengal.
In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. The system continues to be under constant watch.
south-west monsoon plays a very important role in ensuring the ‘well-being' of the Reserve Bank.. . http://ow.ly/1Oxph
India rainfall totals (from 1-Jan-10 to 21-May-10) and "Laila" rainfall total ... http://ow.ly/1Oxl2

India rainfall totals and "Laila" rainfall

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 21.5.2010
--------------------------------------------------------
Cherrapunji 474 cm
Passighat 145 cm
Silchar 134 cm
Dibrugarh 113 cm
Itanagar 103 cm
Dhubri 98 cm
Gangtok 89 cm
North Lakhimpur 86 cm
Coochbehar 79 cm
Guwahati 68 cm
Lengpui 62 cm

Cyclone Laila rainfall toppers
-------------------------------
Addanki received the highest rainfall of 522 mm 
Maddipadu 510 mm, 
Kothapatnam 258 mm 
Ongole 142 mm.


Posted by Pradeep

Ongole: rivulets swollen, villagers marooned .. . http://ow.ly/1Owrj
6pm, Thunder cells over N-E and S Karnataka, and heavy showers over Orissa contine .. http://ow.ly/i/1Hm5
@CriticalCareInd >> How long is it raining ? Heavy showers lashing Orissa coast, latest sat. shot at 6pm... http://ow.ly/i/1Hm5
Laila - Heavy showers :: Addanki received the highest rainfall of 522 mm, Maddipadu 510 mm, Kothapatnam 258 mm and Ongole 142 mm on 21-May
Good satellite shot of Cyclone "Bandu" ... http://ow.ly/i/1HlD
More about Cyclone "Bandu" .. http://ow.ly/1Owhp
Next Cyclone will be "Phet" and not "Bandu"... because Bandu is already formed near CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA .. http://ow.ly/i/1Hlw
RT @richa_agrawal43: nw d laila effect cn b seen in kolkata.. itz dark outside n raining heavily (3:34pm)
RT @rajarshibasu: Its raining in kolkata. Enjoy the effect of laila. Aila with a big l. (3:58pm)
RT @Aagan86: the rain in kolkata is not due to laila saye alipur met dept
4pm, Heavy showers continue over Orissa coast, N-E Andhra, and over South Coastal Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/1Hg2
Almost S-W monsoon showers continue over South Kerala and Kanyakumari District of S. Tamilnadu.
On 21-May, Andhra heavy rain.. Tiruvuru (Krishna dt) recorded an extremely heavy rainfall of 25 Centimetres
Maximum temperatures may rise by 2-3 0C over plains of northwest India during next 24 hours .. (already temp. are hovering around 45 deg C)
western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region during next 3-4 days
Rain map of 21-May, Shows heavy showers along Orissa coast ... http://ow.ly/i/1Hej
Rain on 21-May, Gopalpur 11, Diamond Harbour 7, Jagdalpur 5,Cherraunji, Puri, Keongjhargarh and Kalingapatnam 4 and Tuni and Paradeep 3 CM
Heat wave conditions are also prevailing over most parts of west Madhya Pradesh and over some parts of east Madhya Pradesh.
Severe heat wave conditions are prevailing over Rajasthan and Gujarat.
@shajikvm >> Is it raining there? Pls update your location in Kerala. Thanks
RT @shajikvm: Rain........Rain..........Rain............kerala is sooooo cooooooool with monsoon........................ (3:20pm)
Chennai - Touched a max. temp. of 35.7 Deg C at 11:30am .. now its at 32.8°C and having CLEAR sky
Monsoon advances further and almost over Kerala coast and Kanyakumari .. http://ow.ly/1OtxG
@SwathyS >> Is it raining there? Pls update ur location in Kerala. If possible upload a monsoon photo as well. Thanks
RT @SwathyS: Monsoon hits kerala? Its seems so. (7:49am)
GFS predicts S-W monsoon over South Kerala in another 72 hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/1H7d
Chennai - now 12:01pm is 34.9°C ... and having a clear day.
11am, Low of "Laila" is affecting coastal Orissa now .. http://ow.ly/i/1H3m
last year (2009) Extreme south peninsula - Kanyakumari got its first S-W monsoon rain on midnight of 22-May-2009 or early hrs of 23-May-2009
11am, S-W monsoon almost over South extreme peninsula .. we can see lots of convective activity around the tip of India. http://ow.ly/i/1H3m
RT @AuraofDreams: RT @HeadlinesIndia Relief work on in cyclone-hit coastal Andhra http://bit.ly/d9ilHn India news cyclone
Monsoon Watch - 9 .. we can expect monsoon over kerala coast within the next 2 days .. http://ow.ly/1OsSF

Monsoon Watch - 9

By Friday late night, the depression (erstwhile "Laila") over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved north-northeastwards and weakened into a well-marked low pressure area over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. The rainfall area has now moved into the coastal Orissa region, but much less in intensity.We can see the winds in the 30-40 knts range around the 2 systems.(IMD Wind Map).
With the development of a low level convection over Comorin Area, we can expect the Monsoon to further move Northwards,covering the Comorin area, and the whole of Sri Lanka.With the Westerlies now at 30 knots,we can expect this within the next 2 days. Hence, the Monsoon's Arabian Sea branch will be at the doorstep of peninsula India.









Further 2 days ahead, after the advance into Sri Lanka by today/tomorrow, I think we can get a surety of its advance into Kerala around the 24th./25th. of May.
The only hesitation on my thinking on this is the ITCZ. The wind map shows the ITCZ along the equator stretching from Africa upto the Bay of Bengal.This parameter, the line, should move into the 5N region around the South Arabian Sea to carry the embedded Monsoon current along with it. Normally, I do not have doubts that this will hold up the advance, as In the Bay, the ITCZ is at 5N.








As on today, I pesonally still feel the Monsoon's advance will halt for 4/5 days after reaching upto coastal Karnataka. This may happen, as discussed before, because the thrust we see now is a result of a "rebpond reaction", and may fizzle out temporarily. 



Posted by Rajesh (http://rajesh26.blogspot.com)
@Jag_just_me >>> "Bandu" is already here .. check this out .. http://ow.ly/1OrZL
RT @DisastersAlerts: Green alert: Tropical Storm BANDU affected few people with wind speeds of hurricane strength... http://dlvr.it/17GHz
Chennai - Clear day to start ... "Heat is back ON"
Cyclone "Laila" is no more ... http://ow.ly/1OrXY
Cyclone "Bandu" ... is already here and it's a Rare cyclone in a Rare zone. ... http://ow.ly/1OrX0

Cyclone "Bandu" ... Rare cyclone in a Rare zone.

Its over Western corner of Arabian sea
JTWC warning
-------------------------------

220300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (BANDU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 212338Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DECOUPLED EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP 
CONVECTION, INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
TC 02A IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, 
HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
HAS WEAKENED. TC BANDU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF 
ADEN. INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL 
INFLOW IS HINDERED BY LAND, THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU 48, TC 02A SHOULD DISSIPATE 
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DIRECTION, 
HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS THAN THIS 
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 20 ... May be the Final warning

Cyclone "Laila" is no more..!
This may be the Final warning for this system.


JTWC warning
-------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED 
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST INDIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
REMAINS ELUSIVE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE OR RADAR 
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING 
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE 
AND CONTINUE WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 36, TC 01B COULD REINTENSIFY IF IT 
REFORMS OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

JTWC path
-----------------------------


IMD warning
----------------------------

Sub: The Depression weakened into a well marked low pressure area.

            The depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved further north-northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north coastal Andhra pradesh and adjoining Telangana at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.
            Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours and Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.
            According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal.  on 24th May 2010. The system is therefore under constant watch.

            This is the last bulletin for this system.


Latest satellite shot
----------------------------------

21st.May was a real HOT day in the desert state of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Notice the abrupt cooling towards the eastern areas.IMD map indicates the extreme heat over the regions.Even in adjoining Pakistan we see a blistering heat wave.








Hottest in Asia: Daddu (Pakistan): 50c
Hottest in India: Idar (Gujarat): 48.5c. The highest ever in Idar. The TOI says its the highest temperature ever recorded in Gujarat State. I have yet to confirm that.
Some HotSpots in these 2 States: 
Gujarat; Ahemdabad: 46.8c, Bhuj:46.0c, Baroda:45.2c,  Rajkot:45.5c.      
Rajasthan:Jaisalmer:47.2c, Ganganagar:46.3c, Bikaner:45.6c,Kota:45.2c
Mahableshwar: Day 29.6c, Night 19.5c
Mumbai: Colaba:35.0c, S'Cruz: 34.4c. 
Mumbai will have partly cloudy skies this weekend, and days and nights will be hot and humid. Westerly breeze may bring some respite, but more humidity alongwith it. Pre Monsoon rains expected in Mumbai around 1st. week of June.


Monsoon Watch - 9.