Friday, November 15, 2013

#Chennai - 10:45pm, 1st round of moderate showers is nearing city from E-S-E. Now its around 55km from coast.

8:30pm analysis suggest that 30W "Deep depression" has moved W-N-W, maintaining pressure round 997mb and winds gusting upto 65 kmph.

10pm, Satellite IR shows massive convective activity very near to central, N Tamilnadu coast ... 

RT @Ck_Mohammed: @weatherofindia Its Raining In #Thiruvanmiyur & Coast of #ECR #Chennai (7:14pm)

#Chennai - 7:50pm, Pallavaram, Polichalur zone got a mini round of drizzle ... Check IWM station for live report ..
6:30pm, The cloud mass of depression has covered entire Tamilnadu coast now... HEAVY rain seen near coast ...
6:30pm, Heavy T showers seen near N, central Tamilnadu, #Chennai coast at around 150 km away from coast ...

#Chennai - 7pm, Drizzle seen along Kovalam zone over South suburbs of city.

#Chennai - 7pm, Upper, medium level winds have picked up speed during past 4 hrs and the direction is from E-N-E.
#Chennai - 5:05pm, DARK now, Stiff and COLD breeze from North continue. Temperature has gone down to 27 C.

#Chennai - 5:50pm, Drizzles expected to push into parts of city from E-S-E in next 2 hrs.

"30W" - moved West and landfall expected near Karaikal. HEAVY rain ahead for N,central,S-E coast of Tamilnadu

Analysis at 2pm, suggests that "30W" has drifted W-N-W and intensified slightly.
Now the system is termed as Deep Depression, with pressure around 997 mb.
Position is 9.5 N , 83 E
Winds gusting upto 65 kmph.

3:30pm, Satellite visible shot reveals that T showers are very near to N-central,N Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.
RADAR image also confirms the same.
4:28pm, light rain approaching N,central coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai from E, S-E ... now at around 75km from Chennai city.

Latest NAVGEM and GFS model suggest a W-N-W movement from now and will cross Central Tamilnadu coast near Karaikal by evening of 16-Nov.

Showers are expected to start ALL along N,central,S-E Tamilnadu coast in next 6hrs.
Chennai city may get drizzling or light rain starting from 8 / 10pm.
Towards early morning and all thru the day (16-Nov) ... Widespread HEAVY rain expected for central, N Tamilnadu coast and into interior zones of S-E,central Tamilnadu.
Heavy / Moderate rain also expected for S Andhra coast during next 24hrs.
At 2pm, "30W" has shown some intensification into Deep Depression and has tracked West... more on this coming up in 30 min.

Chennai - 2:08pm, cold in air.
Heavily Cloudy now!
Showers seen over bay at 100km E, S-E from city.

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 1.50pm,Clear skies,bright Sunshine, Cold & breezy, the dry spell continues., Sky pic

Siberian High and its teleconnection

The Siberian High (also Siberian Anticyclone) is a massive collection of cold or very cold dry air that accumulates on the northeastern part of Eurasian terrain. Usually, it is centred around Lake Baikal. The Siberian High is the strongest semipermanent high in the northern hemisphere and is responsible for both the lowest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Siberian High affects the weather patterns in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere: its influence extends as far west as the Italy and as far southeast as Malaysia, where it is a critical component of the northeast monsoon. Occasionally a strong Siberian High can bring unusually cold weather into the tropics as far southeast as the Philippines. It may block or reduce the size of low-pressure cells or cyclones and generate dry weather across much of the Asian landscape including India with the exception of regions such as Hokuriku and the Caspian Sea coast of Iran that receive orographic rainfall from the winds it generates.

[1] The easterly from SH is propagating equator ward  towards south.  

[2]  Tropical Easterly produce wave pattern and clouds form in crust.

[3] Due to southward propagation of wave pattern the clouding is shifted to south relatively.

[4] Already the cold is felt in Eastern coast. that is cold wind advection from SH. 

[5] However the WML or cloud mass positioned down near EAST of  Kottaipattinam [09.97 Deg North / 79.20 Deg East]

[6] The expected land fall may start in the south to day late afternoon.

30W - during past 12hrs has moved west

11am, Latest visible shot shows clouding has moved closer to Tamilnadu coast..

1:15pm, Showers nearing central , N Tamilnadu coast , Chennai from east, S-E. Now at around 100km.

#Chennai - 12:30am, CALM with temperature 23.2 C.
Upper level winds are from East.
No sign of RAIN yet !!

Nagercoil and zones near to it (South tip of Tamilnadu) got HEAVY rain from 5pm to 9:30pm of 14-Nov-2013.

30W - Depression, drifted S-W again. Rain to start along Tamilnadu coast by evening of 15-Nov

Latest analysis of 30W over S-W Bay shows that the system is still a Depression with pressure around 1000mb.
During past 12hrs it has VERY slowly drift S-W again.
Now it's positioned at 9.8 N , 84.7 E
Wind gusts can reach upto 55 kmph.

Satellite IR at 11pm shows, very heavy convective activity over its W,N-W quadrant, near North East Srilanka.

GFS Models suggest a S-E Tamilnadu coast landfall along N Srilanka tip on noon of 16-Nov.

Showers are expected to start along central, S-E Tamilnadu coast by evening of 15-Nov, and N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and S Andhra coast will start to get showers from early hrs or early morning of Saturday, 16-Nov.
S-E, central, N Tamilnadu coast is in for widespread Heavy rain on Saturday.. "Super Saturday".
From Friday night till late evening of Saturday, showers can be accompanied by wind gusts reaching to 50 or 60 kmph along the Tamilnadu coast.

The Sea Surface Temperature along central, N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai coast CAN reduce the intensity of rain for these zones... check this  SST effect over cloud mass "
for more about this scenario.