Tuesday, April 30, 2013

The W.D upper level circulation is over N-W Pakistan ... and will drift E-S-E towards Kashmir in next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/20r1I 

The present rain over Kashmir is expected to vanish after tomorrow !! http://ow.ly/i/20r6M 
Almost NO rain forecast for most of central,East,West and N-central Peninsula India during next 5 days... Very #HOT conditions expected !

Some T.showers expected to persist over N-E Andhra, S,coastal.Odisha during next 4 days !!

Scattered T.showers to continue over S,central Kerala and over S.tip Tamilnadu till 3-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20qLR 

Scattered heavy T.showers to continue over most of N-E states, Sikkim and over N,E Bangladesh for next 4 days... http://ow.ly/i/20qQi 
Today a circulation is seen over N.Madhyapradesh and its southern extension can be seen upto N,N-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/20oSz 

From 2-May the wind direction will shift to W,S-W over S.Peninsula, this will make the zone super #HOT from 2-May... http://ow.ly/i/20pmk 

South Bay may pop its first LOW on 5/6-May !!

The seasonal heat LOW over E,central India will be around 1000mb on 2-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20pV1 

The East India heat LOW will then spread to N,N-W of India and into Pakistan after 3-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20q3E 
Monsoon Watch -3 2013 (Additional)...April 30th....see Map on vagaries
The arrival date is calculated seeing todays position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress (In cricket parlance:projected score at the current run rate).This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces look well arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.
Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the embedded Lows to fizzle out, and to get going.

Arabian Sea Branch: Though there is some improvement in most of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, may not be affected by the temporary "dis-organisation " in the equatorial winds at the equator. ( Provided they regroup fast).

On these calculations, Vagaries would still maintain the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2013(20th May), Sri Lanka around 27th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 3/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th June (5th June).
Mumbai by 12/13th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thundershowers could start from around 6/7th June 2013.

Bay Branch: SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 15th.May (12th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 18th-20th May 2013.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 9th of June, along with the NE states.

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

5pm, T.showers seen over S,coastal Odisha, N-E Andhra, N.Karnataka, S. Kerala and S.Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/20iVj 

#HOT at 4:30pm, Nagpur is around 45 C, Ahmedabad = 43 C, Varanasi = 42 C, Thiruchirapalli = 41 C, Patna = 40 C, Jaipur = 38 C, Kolkata = 35C

Yesterday's Max temperature map.. most stations over W,central, E, N,central-Peninsula India have reported above 40 C 
#Chennai - Airport, Yesterday max temp was 37.3 C. Major heating on cards starting from 2-May ... expected to cross 40 C.

#Chennai - 5:10pm, temperature is around 33 C, Humidity around 59% , now having good Sea breeze from E-S-E.