Thursday, July 30, 2015

Friday 30th July Post (Night)

BB-3, now a depression at 992 mb, is positioned in SE Bangladesh. Likely to track W/NW and weaken. Should weaken to 1000 mb by Sunday. 

An new embedded Low in the axis is likely to form in Central India by around 3rd/4th August.

As the erstwhile system in Rajasthan merges with the Monsoon axis, the Western end of the axis rapidly moves Northwards. Due to BB-3, the slope Eastwards of the axis is steep, sloping SE.

Friday 31st and Saturday 1st August..Heavy showers are likely in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand, Western U.P. and in Western Nepal. 

Rains increasing in both Punjabs on 1st August and continue on Sunday 2nd. 
(Gujrat in Pak Punjab gets increasing precipitation from Saturday. Saturday and Sunday showers will measure around 20 mms per day).

Heavy showers in Chattisgarh. Jharkhand and West Bengal.

Rainfall increasing (due to sectoral strengthening of the off shore trough) in South Konkan and Goa and Coastal Karnataka from Friday and effective thru till Monday.

From Vagaries

Cyclone Komen over N Bay, very near to S-coast Bangladesh

Today, the S Rajasthan circulation has moved N-N-E and weakened over N,N-central Rajasthan..
During past 24hrs, the N Bay LOW has intensified into a Cyclone, now very near to S-S-E Bangladesh coast ..

Now, the Cyclone is named as Komen, this is expected to be short-lived as it is expected to make landfall by drifting N,N-N-W in 12/18 hrs.

10:30am, One can see the 2 circulations and the clouding around it. Entire N,N-E,N-W,central Bay is very active ..

RT @ChennaiRains: @Cycloneoi Cyclone in North Ind Ocean after 25 years, July,First since 1989 

GFS, JTWC expects the Cyclone Komen to move North and make landfall over S coast Bangladesh and move W-N-W to Bengal ..
11:30am, Komen - ADT analysis ... pressure = 995.3mb, Winds gusting to 70/80 kmph. "No weakening observed".
Landfall in next 6 to 10hrs.

By morning, 1-Aug... remnant of Komen will be over S,central Bengal as Depression..
On Saturday, 1-Aug.. the present Rajasthan circulation is expected to drift into central Pakistan and fizzle out ..
The remnant of Komen is expected to travel West into Jharkhand and then to central Chatisgarh on 2/3-Aug..

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs

Before morning of 31-Jul,
Heavy widespread rain for Bengal, Jharkhand, N-coast Odisha and Bihar...

Due to Rajasthan circulation..
Scattered Heavy rain will be over W,central, N,E Rajasthan in next 18hrs.
During next 24hrs, coastal Maharastra is expected to get scattered moderate / heavy rain including Mumbai.

For S Karnataka, #Bangalore, N,N-E Tamilnadu, S,central coast Andhra, #Chennai moderate / light rain possible after 6pm today.

On 31-Jul, as Komen drifts West into Bengal.
Widespread HEAVY rain for N,N-E Odisha, Bengal, Jharkhand, E Uttarpradesh, N,central Chatisgarh
On 31-Jul, Some of heavy rain will also push into E Madhyapradesh as well.
Heavy scattered rain also possible all along Northern zones of Monsoon axis..i.e.. E Bihar, E,central,N Uttarpradesh into Uttarakhand.

Remnant of Rajasthan circulation will continue to pop more rain for N,N-W Rajasthan on 31-Jul.

On 31-Jul, the HEAVY T showers are expected to be back for S,S-E Karnataka, Bangalore, N,N-E Tamilnadu, Chennai, S Andhra.