Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Readings as on 18th. May:
The scene shifts from the sub-continent.
Hottest in Asia: Makkah (S.Arabia): 48c
Hottest in India: Wardha (Maharashtra) 47.4c. Nagpur:46.2c,Satna: 46c.
Hottest Nights: New Delhi(Palam): 34.0c,Chandrapur:34.0c,Kota:33.8c, Hissar:32.6c,Nagpur:32.0c,, New Delhi (S'Jung):32.0c,Jaipur:31.8c, Aurangabad (Maharashtra) 31.7c.
Mahableshwar hotter than Mumbai today !!
Mahableshwar max. 35.1c
Today's Mumbai day temps:Colaba:34.9c, S'cruz:35.5c.

Monsoon forecast: I think tthe Cyclone is moving as per the expectations in my blog written yesterday. Striking the coast near the A.P./Orissa border, and then sort of grazing it, and moving North-East. What happens to the Monsoon? My personal assumptions are:The energy gets sucked into the system, and suddenly we find a drop in the rain rate around the Andaman Islands.This will stall the further movement of the Bay branch, by 4/5 days. A lot of rain will move up the east coast during the next 4/5 days. Can this be called Monsoon rains? Technically no. And,subsequently, as the Bay waters will cool down a bit, fresh momentum required for the monsoon may take another week.Monsoon will advance into North-eastern region in the first week of June.


The Arabian Sea branch gets the initial pull from the cyclone,at the time the cyclone enters the land.Subsequently, the south-west flow of clouds and moisture can continue into Kerala uninteruppted. Hence, it is very possible, that regular monsoon winds can enter Kerala by the 25th./26th. Further movement Northwards may then take another week to gather momentum. The 200 hpa winds are not yet regrouped. The cyclone may have delayed this important parameter a bit,though their is no direct co-relation between the jet streams and the cyclone. 




Monsoon movement into Karnataka and Northwards could be in the first week of June.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 9 ... http://ow.ly/1MFHS

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 9

IMD warning
-------------------

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and laycentred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.00N and long. 83.50E, about 350 km east of Chennai, 520 km south of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20th May 2010.
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from tonight. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.
Update on "Laila":
Latest position at 13.3N  83.3E. With pressure dropped to 985mb and winds at 50 knts. 




Possible area of striking coast near Kakinada, on 19th. evening, and then tracking along the East coast. As expected, it will turn to North-Northeast on hitting landmass. 
Will strike the coast as Cat1 TC, and may maintain this intensity for at least 24/36 hrs. due tto its proximity to the sea.Heavy supportive clouding seen in interior Karnataka.


Rainfall upto 250 mms initially expected along A.P.coast, and 50-70 mms in interior A.P. and North T.N. coast.and winds will reach 70 knts aalong the shores.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 8 .. (Chennai out of "Laila" 's path)

JTWC projected path:
----------------------------



181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z

Latest Satellite shot
----------------------------
Massive showers can be seen over Central Tamilnadu , Central Tamilnadu coast, N-W Tamilnadu and over Central Karnataka

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 7

The core is loosing its strength a bit and this will re-generate in another 6 hrs time


IMD warning:
-----------------------------

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards  and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18thMay 2010 over southwest and adjoining southeast  westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.00N and long. 84.00E, about 400 km east of Chennai, 550 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
            The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20th May 2010.
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls  (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours.  Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmphlikely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.
           
            Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

            The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.
           
            Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.



Satellite shot at 6 pm IST
-----------------------------------------

RT @ndotnanda: @chandrutech heard that cyclone is moving towards chennai. Next few days you will not enjoy the weather. for sure!
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 6 ... (May make landfall over Ongle and Visakhapatinam) ... http://ow.ly/1MtIR

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 6

IMD warning:
--------------------------

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning (Orange message).

            The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards  and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining southeast  & eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.50N and 84.50E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai, 600 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
            The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongle and Visakhapatinam by early hours of 20th May 2010.
Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls from today, the 18th May 2010 evening/night. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase subsequently as the system moves closer to coast. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast from today night.
           
            Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

            The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.
           
            Next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.



Latest satellite shot
----------------------------


RT @banglanews_eng: Tropical cyclone could hit India and Bangladesh... http://tinyurl.com/35r738j
Chennai - Mild drizzle has started and cloud cover is very heavy. We have LOW cloud movement from W-N-W
4:20pm, Very latest IR shot of Cyclone "Laila" overlaid with RADAR and tracking image as well .. http://ow.ly/i/1CoU
Cyclone Laila May Stall Monsoon’s Progress in India ... http://ow.ly/1Msau
@PPrakash >> Please choose a Cyclone Name from this list .. http://ping.fm/MAEof
Update of Cyclone:
Latest position is 12.4N 84.5E.That is 285 Nm east-southeast of Chennai. It has tracked west-northwest at 13 knots in the last 6 hrs.Peak winds are at 40 knots and gusts at 45 knts in the southeast and southwest quadrant. Pressure still at 996 mb. Likely to deepen now onwards.
Expected to take the North-North-west track initially, and later after 30 hrs. recurve in a North-Northeast direction. Might just be "on and off" the coast while just hitting the coast south of Vizag.Will graze the east coast after that while moving North-East.
Heavy rains along the path, and gusty winds and rough seas along the T.N. and A.P.coast with the movement of the cyclone will prevail.
RT @k_srinivasan: very good weather.temp has dropped considerably.courtesy: laila cyclone
RT @rajuprc: friends living in coastal andhra ,beware of the cyclone
RT @Weather_1: Cyclone won't impact India's monsoon progress-official http://bit.ly/bENI2s
2:30pm, a gud part of Cyclone "Laila" 's outer strands are over North Tamilnadu and over South Andhra .. http://ow.ly/i/1Clw
Rain due to Depression/ Cyclone will always start as sprinkles, then steady drizzle and steadily increase as time goes on.
Chennai - Getting darker .. that means the HIGH cloud cover is getting thick.
RT @neomonk: Cyclone approaching! - http://bit.ly/aEEmBB RT: @msnarain: Wow! Just came to the balcony! The weather is awesome in Chennai!
Barotropic prediction system for the tracks of tropical cyclones (WBAR model) .... http://ow.ly/1MpXs
Projected path of Cyclone "Laila" ... http://ow.ly/i/1Chs .. MAJORITY OF MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS,
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
If the Cyclone "Laila" follows the path projected in this diagram then the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast will set in around 23-May... (cont)
Chennai - High cloud cover is getting THICK than 3 hrs before. Only mild wind from West and sometimes from South.
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 5 (bigger, fast moving and closer) ... http://ow.ly/1MpOg

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 5 (bigger, fast moving and closer)

A fast moving Giant Cyclone "LAILA"


JTWC:
-------------------------

180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION AROUND TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
AND DEEPEN. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 48
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF INDIA, CROSSING INTO BANGLADESH AS A WEAK 35-KNOT TC BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

JTWC projected path:
----------------------------------


Satellite shot at 12:30pm IST
------------------------------------------------
Compare the sat. shot at 10:30am IST in our update # 4
Now it has become bigger and even close to land.


IMD warning:
------------------------

BOB 01/2010/05 Dated: 18.05.2010
Time of issue: 1045 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Alert.

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.00N and 85.50E, about 570 km east-southeast of Chennai, 690 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1250 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in anorthwesterly to northerly direction during next 72 hours towards Andhra Pradesh coast close to Machhalipatinam.
Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from today, the 18th May 2010 evening/night. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase subsequently as the system moves closer to coast. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast from today night.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govtsare being informed accordingly.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.
RT @namitha26: Cyclone Laila To Bring Heavy Rains In Tamil Nadu And Andhra Pradesh http://bit.ly/cRn0kj
Update on 01B:
The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards since last observations,6 hrs.ago,intensified into a Cyclonic Storm‘ LAILA’, as per IMD status given, and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May  near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam.
The current winds are at 35 knots, 63 Kmph.and core pressure constant at 996 mb
Internationally,it is still in the "Tropical Storm" category. "TS" means winds upto 35 knts. Cat1 would mean the storm upgrading to "Cat 1" (severe cyclone) would be if winds are in the 34-63 Knts, 63-118 Kmph range.
This system is forecasted to reach Cat 1, or severe cyclone status within the next 36 hrs.
Expected movement will be North-West, initially. Strong possibilities of re-curving Northwards, or even North-East just before striking the coast.See track from Tropical Storm Risk.






"Why Cyclone "laila" will steer away from land??".... http://ow.ly/1Mojm
RT @shuvankr: The data of cyclone 1B http://ping.fm/TU91I
RT @thatsTelugu: à°¤ుà°ªాà°¨ుà°—ా à°®ాà°°ిà°¨ à°µాà°¯ుà°—ుంà°¡ం(Cyclone Laila in Bay of Bengal) http://bit.ly/9ioKEP
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 4 ..."Why "laila" will steer away from land??".... http://ow.ly/1Mojm

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 4

JTWC - projected path
-------------------------


Why "Laila" will trace the JTWC 's projected path??
---------------------------------------------------------

Upto Tamilnadu coast the upper wind is from East to West.
Just above the land, the upper wind pattern is from S-W to North-East.
This will steer the "Laila" away from Land after coming very close to Land.
Anything can happen.

IMD warning
----------------

BOB 01/2010/04                                                                                               Dated: 18.05.2010 
Time of issue: 0730 hours IST
 
Sub:      Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA ‘ over southeast and adjoining southwest  Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert.    
               
 
               The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved westwards, intensified 
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA’ and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May 2010 over southeast and 
adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of 
Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
 
               The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the 
system is likely to intensify further and  move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
 
 
               Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
 and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
 
Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
18-05-2010/0530 
11.5/86.5
 65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1130
11.5/86.0
 65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1730
12.0/85.5
75-85gusting to 95
18-05-2010/2330
12.5/85.0
 75-85gusting to 95
19-05-2010/0530
13.0/84.5
    85-95 gusting to 105
19-05-2010/1730
14.0/83.5
   85-95 gusting to 105
20-05-2010/0530
15.0/82.5
      95-105 gusting to 115
20-05-2010/1730
16.0/82.0
       95-105 gusting to 115
21-05-2010/0530
17.0/81.0
  75-85gusting to 95
 
               Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to 
experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Gale force wind 
with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today,the
18th night. 
               
               Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today the 18th night.
 Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.
 
               The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.
               
               Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today,the 18th May 2010.


Satellite shot at 11 am IST
-----------------------------
RT @gupt: I want rain!! RT: @mamatha_m: Cyclone to hit AP tomorrow.......so rain in Hyderabad?!
Cyclone "01 B" is named as "LAILA"
Chennai - Will Cyclone "01 B" touch Chennai or N. Tamilnadu coast .. ?? ... http://ow.ly/1Mmqr
Chennai - Is heavily cloudy from morning ... Why ?? http://ow.ly/1MmpV
Cyclone "01 B" (no-name) .. for more, keep tracking .. www.indianweatherman.com
Immediate update :: Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #3 ... http://ow.ly/1Mmoy

Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #3

JTWC
-------------

180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 172338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARING WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND KNES AS WELL AS THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT 
UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 01B IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH 
TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT 
RATE, THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SST/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//



JTWC projected path
---------------------------------


Satellite shot at 8:30am IST
-------------------------------


At this point of time .. IMD website is down
Cyclone "01B" (no-name)... will approach Andhra coast and then move North East ... http://ow.ly/1Mmka
coastal Andhra likely to be hit: IMD ... http://ow.ly/1MmiZ
Cyclone may be a heavenly blessing for a change‎ ... http://ow.ly/1Mmiy
RT @akshaydeoras: CYCLONE WILL PASS ABOUT 100KM EAST OF CHENNAI ON 19TH MAY AT 12PM. ALERT FOR ROUGH SEAS... http://bit.ly/8XRsig
Cyclone "01B" yet to be named .. Update #2 ... http://ow.ly/1Mmhq

Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #2

JTWC
--------------


180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 172338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARING WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND KNES AS WELL AS THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT 
UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 01B IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH 
TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT 
RATE, THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SST/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.


Satellite shot at 7:30am IST
--------------------------------



JTWC projected path
----------------------


01B Update
No longer the Deep Depression, the Bay system, 01B. now has matured to TC status, and at 996 mb core pressure, and winds at 35 knots (on minute average),is situated at 11.8N and 86E, 420 NM South-East of Chennai.




As the latest imagery of precipitation shows, its south-west quadrant is moisture heavy, and shows good signs of growth.
having tracked north-west till now, it should continue in the same direction initially, along the ridge which is steering it at present.
But, after 24 hrs, it may re-curve to the north-east direction, as it encounters a low trough aloft,(W.D.). This change of direction is totally based on the exact location of the W.D. then. It may turn and graze the coast as it moves on, or may just strike the coast at A.P. depends on the strenght and positioning of the trough aloft then.
NOGAPS and ECMWF theorise this scenario.

OI B

Indian
20100518.0000.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.01BONE.35kts-996mb-116N-870E.100pc.jpg image

Now IT IS NO LONGER DD. The sustained winds at the core region crosses 35kts. This is named as storm [01B] As Shri. Rajesh pointed out the WD in the northern sector is a factor that may influence the movement of 01B. What may happen is, some time ,this may move towards WD and minkle with it. By that time as Shri Rajesh expected it may cross coast between AP and WB. The upper winds are SEly turning WESTERLY along the coast and it will ensure to drag the system towards coast. The high cloud [lead] over AP and WB is also visible.


 Readings as on 17th. May:
Hottest in Asia:New Delhi (Palam) : 47.6c ..This is an all time high record for Palam for any month.
And lots of stations in India and Pakistan recording 46c,
Allahabad/Bamhrauli  46°
Nawabshah (Pakistan) 46°
Bahawalnagar (Pakistan) 46°
Pbo Raipur (India) 46°
Hissar Airport ( India) 46°
Satna (India) 46°
Nagpur Airport (India) 46°
Gwalior (India) 46°
Chhor (Pakistan) 46°
Kota Aerodrome (India) 46° 
Hottest Nights: Kota: 35c, Chandrapur: 33c, Hissar:32c, Palam: 31c, Amrisar:31c (+9c), Jaipur:31c..and  due to long list, upgraded the base level from 30c to 31c :)
Day temp of Mumbai,Colaba: 35.0c, S'Cruz: 34.2c
      
It’s a sizzling summer:A searing heat wave across India: Read full write up.