Sunday, April 27, 2014

Monsoon Watch - 3.. 2014 ....Part 1....27th April 2014

1. ENSO:
Subsequent to writing the MW-2, we are keeping a carefull watch on the El-Nino developments. the Sub Surface Sea temeperatures in the Nino 3.4 and other regions have been constantly warming up since end February. The next logical sequence is the warm waters rising to surface, heat up the Sea surface temperatures, and then effect the trade winds. But, against much over reaction on the El Nino, we see the warming taMonsoon Watch -3 ..Published in Vagaries... its own time. Does not seem to be happening at a faster rate or in a hurried manner. The last 2 weeks heating ( Nino 3.4) shows a very nominal warming up, of 0.23c. The analytical point to be noted here: The anomally in February was below normal, while now with a rise, the anomally is near average.  and Nino 1+2 has actually declined by 0.7c ! 
The most recent ONI value is -0.7c...(El Nino is characterised by ONI values of 0.5 or above, La Nina is characterised by -0.5 or below).
So the ENSO conditions are still Neutral. 
May happen that an eventual El Nino, though unavoidable, may actually form full fledged ( around August) after the main months of our South West Monsoon have been done with. South West Monsoon may get sluggish ( In Peninsula) after July, around August and september.

More in Monsoon Watch -3 ..Published in Vagaries...