Tuesday, June 05, 2012

A day beyond the original forecasted date of 3rd/4th June (by Vagaries in MW), With good rainfall for the 3rd day running, and favourable factors like OLR and depth of SW winds, the SouthWest Monsoon Moves into Kerala on the 5th. Check SWM advance Map on Current Weather Page. 

Amongst the rainfall in the State today: Ernakulam 67 mms, Kozhikode 58.6mms, Hosdurg 52mms, Vadakara 49 mms, Kudulu 47.4 mms, Quilandy 41.2 mms and Kannur 38.7 mms.

In the Western Ghats of Karnataka, Agumbe recieved 97 mms of rain. In coastal Karnataka, Karwar measured 63 mms and Mangalore 62 mms and Honavar 39 mms. Interiors were mainly devoid of rainfall. More to the North, Panjim Goa notched up 73 mms.

As a result, with more rains next 24 hrs, Monsoon can move into Coastal Karnataka by 6th night. 

Further push into Goa and South Konkan by the 8th, and Mumbai will get the Monsoon onset by the 12th/13th of June. Subsequently, SWM may stall beyond 10N (around Dahanu).

A weak MJO phase is forecasted in our seas from the 16th of June. Normally, a weak phase is expected to last between 14-21 days. 
Studying this event, and an anticipitated unfavourable OLR after 17th June, it seems the SWM will remain as a weak current in the regions where it has set in, and go into a "weaker" phase after the 16th of June.

See Vagaries...
RT @vijayngandhi: first drops rain of this season @ Mumbai 10:30pm
Raining steady since afternoon here in Mahabaleshwar 6:30pm
RT @nihar13: @weatherofindia - Started to drizzle here in some parts of Pune. Some parts witnessing rains. Pre-monsoon signs clearly. 6pm
Chennai having cloud formation over S-W.. typical on a south west monsoon day. Showers possible!
RT @shamlinishad: Monsoon rain made the WorldEnvironmentDay perfect in Kerala :)
Due to present W.D, T.Showers will linger over Punjab, Haryana, Kashmir, Delhi , W. Uttarpradesh, Himachal and Uttarakand till 7-Jun
Karnataka coast to get most of early showers for next 36hrs and Kerala coast will get its share from 7-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/FRz0
Monsoon showers will scale up ALL along S-W coast from 10-Jun and till 10-Jun "there's NO Bay circulation expected" !
RT @debabrata2008: @weatherofindia Bhubaneswar is sizzling today at 46.7 degree Celsius.
Showers will reach upto S.Gujarat, entire Maharastra coast, Mumbai on 7-Jun... rains will consolidate after 10-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/FRxj
Today, Monsoon showers can be seen upto S-W.Maharastra coast, goa .. http://ow.ly/i/FRwD
RT @achuth_g: Monsoon rains arrive in Kerala?? Ha, Trivandrum is as usual too hot !!!! (3:57pm)
chennai - records 40 deg C at 3:40pm... even after having strong winds from S-W. No sea breeze yet!
RT @varun_0012: Finally rain love abstract goa india http://t.co/2cQ7LhA7 (3:28pm)
RT @altheadsouza: Goa in the rain! It's soo beautifull here!! (3:14pm)
RT @surtweetz: @weatherofindia @MANOJ_MITTAL its rainig in noida too!!! last 2-3 mins. 15:41...
RT @kamalcs1: Monsoon rains arrive in Kerala - weather official http://t.co/J38xeaG5 Mumbai expected to get wet in a week or so?
RT @manoj_mittal: happy to know its raining in Delhi. waiting for rain in NOIDA (3:32pm)
RT @akankshananda: And finally da RAIN god answered our prayers .. delhi rain .. Sweet smell of wet mud after da rains .. ;) (3:34pm)
RT @kaymenon: NDTV says monsoon hits Kerala! Trivandrum is in Kerala, we are living with only humidity and NO RAIN at 03:20 PM, 05 June,12!
RT @thisismmk: @weatherofindia It rained quite heavily for 30 mins here in Kodaikanal http://t.co/mvbNCvwY (3:08pm)
On 4-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 46.5°C was recorded at Panagarh (West Bengal)
RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.15am, Strong winds, Low passing clouds from SW, looking for first pre-monsoon showers! a pic. http://t.co/cGc2Pus2
RT @shanthikod: @weatherofindia .... it is raining heavily here in north Kerala coastal region (9:58am)