Sunday, August 15, 2010

The rain spell from the previous low is all but over !
However, showers/thundershowers along the monsoon axis will continue.

We will now catch up, or rather chase up the other developments estimated in "vagaries", on the 13th.

A new low in the bay on the 17th ? Well, CMC says yes, it will form and move inland from the 18th.
ECMWRF and GFS say nothing is on the horizon ! two diverse views.
So, now lets wait and watch, it's a matter of 2 days. Bay of Bengal is putting up surprises !

Then, the next was the MJO push in the Arabian Sea. Yes, that's at least on stream. It has shown good clouding, and is heading towards the kerala coast.
Of-course lots of rain on the Kerala coast, and Karnataka coast. A little bit of rain creeping in the interiors of Karnataka is possible on Monday/Tuesday.
But its for a day only. Rain patch can move up along the west coast to hit the Maharashtra coast, that is around Thursday but I see it weakening by then.
On Tuesday/Wednesday (17th/18th), a local vortex is likely to form, for a day, just around the region east of Mumbai. So, some rain inland ,in the madhya Maharashtra region.

Mumbai: Slight change in the forecast put up on 13th. Monday, passing rains, sunny with 10 mms of rain. Rain intensity will increase for a day on Tuesday/Wednesday.Thursday, a sudden drop in the frequency of showers.Warm, or should I put hot ?
All IndiaTop Rainfalls, over a limit of 2200mms, from 1st. June to 15th. August 2010.
Cherrapunji: 5787 mms (435)
Agumbe: 4409 mms
Shirali: 3672 mms
Mahableshwar: 3037 mms (-1200)
Honavar: 2826 mms
Ratnagiri: 2823 mms (+698)
Mangalore: 2644 mms
Karwar: 2500 mms
Goa Pnjm: 2493 mms (+382)
Mumbai Clb: 2312 mms (+778)
Mumbai Scz: 2219 mms (+512)

Pradeep, please fill in the missing ones :)

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean. It is normally characterized by anomalous cooling of SST in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous warming of SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Associated with these changes the normal convection situated over the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool shifts to the west and brings heavy rainfall over the east Africa and severe droughts/forest fires over the Indonesian region. The name IOD is coined by Prof. Yamagata, Dr. Saji and other researchers of the climate variations research program of Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) to represent the zonal dipole structure of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere parameters such as SST, OLR and Sea Surface Height anomalies. Generally, this configuration is also called positive IOD. Infact, a negative IOD also evolves preceding/following a postive IOD, with reverse in the configuration of the positive IOD.

Courtesy :