Saturday, October 09, 2010

On 8-Oct... Tamilnadu rain .. Mettupatti (Madurai dt) and Dindigul 12 each
The maximum temperature rose markedly at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, rose appreciably at a few places over Tamil Nadu.
ECMWF sees the possibility of the South China Sea pushing in another Bay รข€˜low', third in the series after 18-Oct..

Fresh ‘low' seen as depression crosses Bengal coast

Thursday's depression over the Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards along the east coast of India well past the area and timeline for a projected landfall during the night.
The system bypassed Paradip for a landfall and past the appointed time to head further northeast. It finally washed over along the West Bengal/Bangladesh coast on Friday morning.

The coastal waters in Head Bay of Bengal from where it took the final lunge for landfall were very warm measuring up to 32 degree Celsius and beyond, according to the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.
Meanwhile on Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) joined other leading forecasters around the world to mount a watch for a fresh low-pressure area in the Bay basin.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the ‘low' should materialise by October 13.
It is likely that it would be lapped up by a passing western disturbance, a second time for Bay ‘low' in as many weeks.

In what is a significant change this time, the interaction of the systems would throw up a trough of their own and get detached from the parent disturbance.
This would effectively mean that the Bay ‘low' embedded into the offspring trough would not sashay north-northeast along the coast as was the case with the latest depression.

In the latter case, it was pushed all the way to West Bengal/Bangladesh coast for a landfall after being scooped up by a passing westerly trough dipping low over central India.
The ‘low' materialising next week and associated trough would instead be gently prodded by prevailing easterly winds to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast and settle over Peninsular India.

This would effectively hold the monsoon withdrawal line pinned along the Central India latitude where it has locked into position for more than a week now.
Rather than venture further south-southwest to run the course, the withdrawing process might simply yield place to the retreating (northeast) monsoon to make an onset over the peninsula.
This much is apparently becoming clear from the way upstream South China Sea and the Western Pacific are preparing busying themselves with enhanced activity.
The ECMWF sees the possibility of the South China Sea pushing in another ‘low', third in the series, across into the Bay of Bengal by October 18 by when the northeast monsoon would have set in over the Bay.

On Friday, the IMD satellite imagery showed the presence of intense convective clouds over parts of Northeast Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, North and adjoining Central and Southeast Bay of Bengal and Southeast Arabian Sea.
A heavy weather warning said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya on Saturday.
Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, Kerala and Gangetic West Bengal.
Fishermen have been advised against venturing into the sea along and off the West Bengal coast on Saturday.

An agro-met advisory bulletin issued on Thursday by the IMD said that overall crop situation in the country was quite satisfactory.
Farmers in Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa have been advised to undertake sowing of Rabi crops after the current rain spell generated by the Bay depression subside.
In view of rainfall at most places over the North-East States, farmers may postpone irrigation and intercultural operation. Plant protection measures should be taken with respect to standing crops and fertilisers need to be applied.

In Bihar, farmers are advised to harvest the matured rice crop as also matured maize crop in view of possible rain.
In North India, farmers have been told to utilise residual soil moisture to sow Rabi crops and harvest the standing crop.
Most of the districts of Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch have not received sufficient rain during the last week, which entails irrigation for the standing crops.
Soil moisture status is favourable in Maharashtra, and sowing of Rabi jowar, sunflower, gram and safflower may be undertaken.
IMD and ECMWF suggests North East monsoon onset after 18.. not with the Next central Bay LOW on 15-Oct.
COLA-GFS model suggests that a LOW will form over N-E Bay and will travel west towards Orissa as depression on 14-Oct...
Chennai - Today had another HOT & Humid day.. with max at.. 35.2 C (2:16pm)... now 9:43pm having good Sea breeze from East and temp 30.3 C
Showers for S. Kerala coast and S. Tip of Tamilnadu has subdued from noon of 9-Oct... still sharp shower possibility till evening of 10-Oct.
On 12-Oct, central Bay will host another Low system and initially will move in a West direction towards S. Andhra..
8:30pm, Heavy thunder showers over S.central Tamilnadu and S.central Kerala... meanwhile S.central Bay is active again.

Now, the Monster of a La Nina Confirmation??

In the context of recent plunge of the MEI into strong La Nina conditions, what does a comparison figure with strong La Nina events that all reached at least minus one standard deviations by June-July, and a peak of at least -1.4 sigma over the course of an event show?

A monster La Nina underway!

Read more:

Cherrapunji Rains

Cherrapunji Rainfall from 1st. Jan to 9th.October 2010.

13150 mms OR  1315 CMS OR  13 MTS OR  526 INCHES OR  44 FEET !!  (Normal Annual is 11070 mms).