Thursday, April 17, 2014

Outlook for the coming Weekend, Friday,18th, Saturday19th and Sunday 20th April;

Friday: A-4 will be precipitating in the Northern Pakistan areas of Punjab and Upper Sindh and parts of South Sindh. Many Central Sindh cities like Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad are likely to get rains. 

In India also, the WD will precipitate in Kashmir, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and some severe storms in Rajasthan and North MP.
The higher reaches of the Hill states are likely to get snow. Heavier showers in Western Nepal.
That means, continuing below normal day temperatures in the North.
A trough, and a semi formed LWD will get thunder showers to Southern Maharashtra and interior Karnataka. 
Belgaum can get the evening thunder shower.

Bangalore too can possibly get the long waited thunder shower on Friday.

A-4 moves east, and keeps the Sindh dry. Sporadic showers continue in Pak Punjab.
Northern India get another day of rains, which decrease by Saturday night. Rains in Punjab, Haryana and Northern Rajasthan plains will continue for another day.
Raipur can get another Thunder shower on Saturday/Sunday.
A-4 weakens and withdraws from the region. Rains almost cease in the North, bringing out the sun and heat from Monday.

Southwards, Thunder showers will lash Southern Maharashtra and Marathwada. The "line " of Thunde cells developing will be Southwards from Southern Maharashtra into adjoining N.I. Karataka, which too will get thunder showers. But rains decrease in S.I..Karnataka.

As the WD disintegrates , Kathmandu can get light showers on Saturday. Otherwise we see the days pleasant around 30c, heating up suddenly from Sunday.

But its Maharshtra special for Sunday,with the entire state barring Konkan poised to get thunder showers.Thunder showers cooling Nagpur and Aurangabad on Sunday.

taken from Vagaries. City forecast in vagaries

Convective cloud formation

The high pressure system in southern hemisphere is formed just 4300 km south of Cape Comerin and has lesser strength to form cross equatorial flow.  However it induced or influenced SOUTHERLY flow winds near Comrin. The western side of southern tip is slowly heated and small extent convective clouds are formed. Similarly medium level convective clouds [CTT &Minus 40 C] are formed over Rayalaseema, NE parts of Karnataka, and adjoining place capable of producing TS with 2-3 cm rainfall

South West Monsoon 2014 - update #1

The feared "El Nino" - South West Monsoon killer !!
El Nino and IOD update by BOM on 8-Apr-2014...
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
Taken from

Central, N-W India Heat LOW.
As of today, the Central, East, N-W India LOW is around 1006mb.
This heat low is expected to deepen to around 994mb by end of May.
At present the progress is moderate, due to less heating over N,N-W India marred by successive Western Disturbances.

North South inland low-level trough or Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD).
At this time, the North South low-level trough or line of wind discontinuity is expected to be established from Central,E-central India to South Kerala, South Tamilnadu.
Today, the circulation is seen over S-E Madhyapradesh and trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu and expected to persist during next 2 days, and it has to persist even more.

Bay and Arabian sea surface temperature.
Sea surface temperature of S,S-W,S-E Arabian sea is around 30 C
Same as the case with S,S-W,S-E Bay.

Bay LOW pressure.
South Bay is expected to pop a LOW pressure system before end of April.
But latest models suggest NO Bay low till end of April.

Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
Generator or Monsoon winds, the "Mascarene high pressure system" in far South Indian ocean.
At present the core pressure is around 1028mb (expected to be around 1034mb by mid May) and positioned slightly to the East.
The winds from the Mascarene high pressure system is expected to reach Equator by around end of 10-May. At present strong winds are just about starting from the system.

JAMSTEC (Japan) Long Range Forecast.
BAD News !!
Long range forecast model suggests below normal rains for most of India, except for South tip, Central and Eastern zones.

IMD monsoon forecast coming up on 25-Apr-2014

2:30pm, T showers seen over W-central Uttarpradesh, S-W Rajasthan, N,S-E Madhyapradesh, N,central,S-W Karnataka.. 
2:30pm, T showers also seen over N chatisgarh, S,W,N-E Odisha, N-E Andhra ...

#HOT at 3:15pm,
Hyderabad = 41 C
Jamshedpur = 40 C
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Thiruchirapalli = 39 C
Kolkata, Patna = 38 C

Nagpur - 3:10pm, Temperature = 38 C.
Temperature reduced due to T showers in vicinity ... you can see that here ...

At 3:20pm...
#Bengaluru - 36 C  (feels like 36.3 C, Humid = 31%)
#Chennai - 35 C  (feels like 39.6 C, Humid = 47%)

#HOT 40s of 16-Apr...
Barmer = 43.6C
Allahabad = 41.5C
Gaya = 41C
Bankura = 42.1C
Rajkot= 40.3C
Akola, Hanamkonda= 42C
Rentachintala = 43.2C

W.D and widespread showers for N,N-W,central India !!

Today, a mid-level W.D circulation, trough seen over N,central Pakistan ... 
This mid-level W.D trough is expected to persist and drift East into N India during next 15hrs ... 

This upcoming W.D has already made the atmosphere more unstable over N,N-central India !
An W.D induced low-level circulation seen over central Pakistan ... this is bringing showers to N,N-E,E Rajasthan .. 
This low-level circulation is expected to drift into central,N-central Rajasthan in next 24hrs... more rain ahead for N-central India !

From today evening, showers for W,central,E Rajasthan into N Madhyapradesh, W Uttarpradesh ... 
Thru Friday and Saturday, scattered showers for most of Rajasthan, N Madhyapradesh, Haryana, #Delhi and into W,central Uttarpradesh !
More widespread showers for Kashmir, Himachal and Punjab on tonight, Friday and Saturday (19-Apr) ... 

This W.D system is expected to clear out from N,N-W, N-central India from late evening of Saturday !

12:30pm, Showers seen over Himachal, Uttarakhand, W Uttarpradesh, E Rajasthan ... 

T showers ahead for Karnataka, central Chatisgarh, Jharkhand - #Election day

Today, a low-level circulation seen over S Madhyapradesh and its trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu ... 
The low-level line of wind discontinuity is expected to persist from S,S-E Madhyapradesh to S Tamilnadu into Gulf Mannar during next 24hrs.

Today, tomorrow... T showers expected to persist over most of W-ghats,S,central Kerala and into S,S-W Tamilnadu.. 
Today as well T showers expected over S,S-W,N,N-central Karnataka after 2pm ... #election #vote 
Today, T showers also expected over Jharkhand, N Odisha, N,N-W,N-E Andhra and into N,central Chatisgarh ... 
T showers over N Karnataka, S,S-E Maharastra, Chatisgarh, N-E Andhra and Jharkhand is expected to continue on Friday as well !