Monday, December 19, 2011

Cold is holding its grip over the Northern region of the sub-continent.
The lowest in the Indian region was Adampur (Punjab) which saw a low of -0.4c on Monday, with Hissar in Haryana at 0c on Monday. Amritsar with 1c was another place with extremely low night temperature.
The days were cold in U.P. and adjoining regions on Monday. Varanasi at 14c in the day being 11c below normal, Allahabad having a high of 15c, which was 10c below normal. All places in the region were around 7-10c below normal in the day.

The persisting cold wave is attributed to the high pressure area (upper air) sitting over the area. With the NW winds starting after the W.D. passes, say by the 21st, we can expect the days in the North to become normal, and cold winds would sweep the NW and central regions.

Meanwhile the W.D, mentioned in Sunday's blog, is moving into the Kashmir region. Would expect Srinagar to receive its first snow on Tuesday.
Snowfall, heavy on the higher portions, is expected on the Jammu-Srinagar highway on Tuesday. Travelers are expected to be prepared for closures in parts.

Delhi will be partly cloudy next 2 days, with the night temperature going up marginally to 7c; with the days will be around 20c.

Mumbai: Tuesday and Wednesday: Partly cloudy with high cirrus clouds. Max in the day will be around 32c, and night temperature should be 18/19c.

Pune: Tuesday and Wednesday: Partly cloudy with thick cirrus clouds (high). Day will be around 31c and night will be 12c.

Surat will be clear, with the day /Night range between 31c and 19c. Expecting cooling after the 24th.

An Easterly wave (mentioned in Sunday's Blog) will bring some rains to the South T.N coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned earlier, a pulse from the typhoon Washi hold on to a chance of a system coming towards the East coast around the 25th.

chennai - Today had a low temp. of 20.7 C (6:09am)
chennai - Temp. now 9:33pm is 25.1 C and will reach 20/19 deg C around early morning !!
chennai - may get a share of showers on 26/27-Dec.. !! till then DRY, mild days and COLD mornings (20 deg C)
RT @keaweather: chennai - Accuweather predicting 140 mm starting on Christmas day. It's still to early to believe in any forecast .. YES
Saving Lives With Social Media ...
On 18-Dec, Heavy rain along S. Tamilnadu coast along Gulf Mannar .. Rameshwaram, Pamban recorded a heavy rainfall of 11 and 9 cm
6:30pm, W.D started over N. Kashmir and Easterlies active along Srilanka, Gulf Mannar and S,C. Tamilnadu coast..
Due to W.D, Minimum temperatures would rise by 2­ to 3 C over northwest, central & east India during next 2 to ­3 days.
North India Shivering :: On 18-Dec.. lowest minimum temperature of ­0.4 C has been recorded at Adampur (Punjab)
Dense to very dense fog has been observed over most parts of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Bihar in morning hours of today.
26-Dec easterlies may even give strong showers along N. Tamilnadu coast, chennai as well ..
Most models predict a "STRONG" easterlies embedded with a LOW to affect S, central tamilnadu coast on 26/27-Dec..
Present showers for S, Central Tamilnadu, E,N-E Srilanka will go down on 22-Dec.. making way for next strong easterlies.
Present easterlies will die around 22/23-Dec... meanwhile another strong easterlies will enter into S-E Bay ..
COLA model predicts that the central India Anti-cyclone will persist till 25-Dec and beyond ..
A moderate W.D has started affecting N, N-W kashmir and it'll drift S-E slightly before vanishing on 23-Dec ..
Easterlies is affecting Central, S. Tamilnadu coast .. and reports of Showers over Kanyakumari district as well..

Late December and early January Cyclones: Will it happen during 2011 or 2012

Many models predict cyclone to come close to Tamil Nadu coast during last week of December 2011. Off late GFS is not so accurate in its forecast.

I have compiled some of the cyclones which have formed in December and have crossed Tamil Nadu coast since 1950.

Almost all the cyclones have formed in the first week of December. Only one cyclone ie 1964 Rameshwaram Cyclone which crossed the Tamil Nadu coast and the 2000 Sri Lanka cyclone have formed around the Christmas period. And the 1964 cyclone was the only super cyclone to hit Tamil Nadu in recent memory. The Sri Lanka cyclone was the first cyclone over Sri Lanka with winds of at least hurricane strength since 1978.

GFS Boxing day Future Cyclone - 26th December

GFS New Year Future Cyclone - 02nd Janauary