Friday, May 02, 2014

Monsoon Watch -3 2014 (Additional)...May 2nd 2014

The enhanced convective phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is located across the western hemisphere and is gradually propagating eastwards. 
The presence of ITCZ is  in the northern hemispheric near equatorial region as well as the rainfall peak which occurred over the south peninsula.Hence, ITCZ  seems to have crossed the Equator, 8 days ahead of the normal date.

A lull in the passage of western disturbances across north-west India aided in the increase in day maximum temperatures to rise to their near / above normal values over north-west & central India.

Jet Streams: The core was located around Lat. 28°N with the wind speed varying between 90-119 kts around 200 hPa.

The Important Parameter of the LWD formation in the Peninsula (bringing in required moisture) is also well formed. It is giving good adequate precipitation in the Southern regions (See map below ) 

(Pradeep's Page gives the daily figures)

SSTs are warming in the Arabian Sea to around 31c off the Goa and Kerala coast and 30c in the Lakshdweep Seas. Mumbai off coast SST was 29c on Saturday (last readings).. But, sooner than expected, we see strong North winds along the Somali coast, which has commenced the Somali Current effect. SSTs along the Somali coast is 24c. 
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently just about around 24c in spots.

Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.
More on Somali current  here: 

The arrival date (Below) is calculated seeing today's position. Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress of the Monsoon Parameters. 

Full Article in Vagaries
5pm, Raining in Varkala. #kerala #india and a beautiful Sunset photo.

No let up seen in Heavy and widespread T showers over N,central zones of N-E states of #India... more rain ahead till 5-May !

Before 7-May, Good rainfall expected over most of N-E states and over S,central Kerala, S Tamilnadu.. 

5:30pm, Lots of T showers seen over #India.. S,central Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab, Haryana, N,E Rajasthan, Uttarakhand 
5:30pm, T showers also over Jharkhand, W Bengal, N-E,N-central Andhra, N,S Karnataka, S Kerala, S Tamilnadu ...

Tuticorin (S Tamilnadu) - 5:52pm, "Thunder storm is near, now having chill in air" ...

More T showers over S Tamilnadu !

Tirunelveli - 1:15pm, "Heavy T shower"
Nagercoil - 3:30pm, "Heavy T shower even now".
3rd consecutive day !!

2:30pm, Visible shot shows T cells over S, S-W Tamilnadu ... 

Today as well, low-level circulation over E,E-central Uttarpradesh and Bihar persists with a trough upto Gulf Mannar 
low-level circulation is expected to persist over E,E-central Uttarpradesh during next 2 days... 

And the trough from this system is expected to persist thru Chatisgarh, E,S Maharastra, N,N-central Karnataka and to S Tamilnadu for 2 days
The low-level (850hpa) circulation over S Gulf Mannar persists and will persist even till 4-May... 

Today as well more T showers ahead for W,central,S Karnataka and W-ghats,S,central Kerala ... 
Tomorrow, Scattered T showers expected over S,central,E Bengal.
Isolated over E Rajasthan, W,central Uttarpradesh.. 
Scattered T showers to continue along W-ghats, S,central Kerala, S,W,N-W Tamilnadu and into S,S-W Karnataka as well during next 2 days.
Isolated T showers also expected for N-W,W,N-central,N-E Andhra and into S,central Odisha on Saturday, Sunday.
#chennai - 11:30am, #hot and humid with scattered low#Cloud formation.

Belgaum - 7:58pm, (1-May) Raining heavily now !
#HOT at 1pm #india...
Nagpur = 45 C
Amristar, Hyderabad = 41 C
Ahmedabad, #Delhi, Jaipur = 40 C
Lucknow = 37 C
Kolkata = 36 C
Mumbai = 31 C

At 1pm...
#Chennai = 35 C  (feels like 40 C) - Winds from S-E persists.
#Bengaluru = 36.1 C  (feels like 37 C) - a still day.

Super #HOT #India on 1-May...
Amristar = 42.8C
Ganganagar = 45.9 C
Hissar = 45 C
Agra = 44.7 C
Gwalior = 43.4C
Varanasi = 44.4 C
... Daltonganj = 44.4 C
Jamshedpur = 43.4 C
Hanamkonda = 42.8C
Rentachintala = 44 C
Kurnool = 41.3 C
Vellore = 40 C

#HOT day and nights ahead for most of N,central,W,East India and over N,central Peninsula during next 7 days ... 
#Chennai - Day temperature is expected to go up by 3 deg C after 7-May "Agni". 
Please note that present temp is around 36 C.