Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Arabian sea Cyclone "04A" GFS predicts:: In 24 hrs it'll intensify further and come dangerously close to Mumbai .. http://yfrog.com/emib1p
RT @indiancricket: Cyclone alert to affect Mumbai cricket schedule: The 7th final ODI between India and Australia . http://bit.ly/RTiM0
Cyclone formation predicted around 17-Nov-09 .. at present NO prediction on its movement .. http://yfrog.com/7d8dap .. we'll keep it posted.
RT @rediffcricket: Rain threat to Sri Lanka - Board President's XI match: Unseasonal rain in Mumbai could deny .. http://bit.ly/2pdQRW
Satellite also shows activity over south-central bay and south Bay along the 5th parallel .. http://ping.fm/Dvu2K
"04A" - slightly moved North-east !!
"04A" - slightly moved North-east towards land.
JTWC warning::
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100411Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE MONSOON-LIKE
CIRCULATION WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED
BY A 100048Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED 30- TO 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD STEADY BASED ON THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING, DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH
PGTW AND KNES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BUT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. TC 04A SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS
THIS NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 12 FEET.
and here's JTWC predicted path::
And also IMD's latest warning::
The deep depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 10th November, 2009 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near Lat. 13.50N and Long. 70.50E, about 470 km west-northwest of Mangalore, 420 km southwest of Goa and 670 km south-southwest of Mumbai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northerly direction for some more time and then north-northeastwards and cross south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coast between Mahuva and Dahanu by early hours of 12th November, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall (≥25 cm) is likely over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharastra during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places is likely over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls(≥25 cm) is likely to commence over south Gujarat from tomorrow, the 11th November, 2009.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely along and off Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts during next 48 hours and over Lakshadweep area and Kerala coasts during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough over Lakshadweep area and along and off Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts. Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 gusting to 75 kmph likely to commence along and off south Gujarat coast from tomorrow afternoon.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off these coasts.
RT @breakings: ‘Toxic’ US ship banned in India: India bans a former US naval ship heading for break-up.. http://bit.ly/2SVsto via BBC.com
"04A" .. where is it heading?
Here's the warning from JTWC:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ELEVATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BIASED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WEAKENED SOME. VWS IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
CYCLONE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (OR 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BUT
AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE, BASED ON ALREADY-ELEVATED VWS.
EXCESSIVE VWS (JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL) WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 36. THE TRACK FORECAST MIRRORS AN OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE THAT IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PROGING A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK (ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE),
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET
JTWC's predicted path::
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ELEVATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BIASED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WEAKENED SOME. VWS IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
CYCLONE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (OR 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BUT
AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE, BASED ON ALREADY-ELEVATED VWS.
EXCESSIVE VWS (JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL) WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 36. THE TRACK FORECAST MIRRORS AN OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE THAT IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PROGING A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK (ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE),
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET
JTWC's predicted path::
Rain bands from ‘low’ probing Maharashtra coast
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) seems to have categorised the Arabian Sea weather system as a depression on Monday with estimated surface wind speeds ranging between 25 and 30 knots (46 to 55 km/hr).
India Met Department (IMD) classification of a depression requires that winds speed up to between the threshold 17-27 knots (31 to 50 km/hr) range.
But no declaration of a depression in the Arabian Sea was forthcoming on Monday. The IMD update merely said that the well-marked ‘low’ over Lakshadweep is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.
WARM SEAS
The JTWC update valid at 2.30 p.m. said that satellite imagery of the area of convection located around 555 km west-northwest of Kochi featured multiple bands of deep convection consolidating about the Low Level Circulation Centre (LLCC), the storm nucleus.
Due to the increased convective consolidation fuelled by the very warm seas off the southwest coast, the JTWC upgraded the potential for the development of a significant tropical storm to ‘good.’
The latest satellite picture (5.30 p.m.) put out by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre showed that the system may already have come under the influence of a dominating westerly trough.
This has caused the convection bands to stray into north-northeast into west-central India. Leading international models had hinted at the possibility of the system as a whole being driven this way inland.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the IMD said in its update that the eastward-bound westerly system has crossed into the country across the northwest border. Precipitation outlook from the US National Centres of Environmental Prediction suggested that the ongoing rains may weaken after the Arabian Sea system makes a landfall over the next two days.
But the Kerala coast and the Tamil Nadu coast would continue to witness rain or thundershowers triggered by residual moisture being fanned across the peninsula by the easterlies during until Monday next.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the northeast monsoon was vigorous over Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema while being active over Kerala during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Maharashtra and Goa during the next three days.
Scattered rain or thundershowers is also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan from Thursday. A warning for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and madhya Maharashtra. Fishermen were advised not to venture into sea along west coast.
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep; at many places over Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over north coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Forecast until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana.
A warning valid for the period said that scattered heavy with isolated very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep area.
The Chennai Met Centre has also warned of squally weather with wind speed reaching 50 to 60 km/hr along and off the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and over Lakshadweep during this period.
IMD satellite pictures showed convective clouds over parts of southeast and east-central Arabian Sea, south Bay of Bengal, south Andhra Pradesh, coastal areas of Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
An IMD forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over extreme south peninsular India during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.
Outlook until Saturday spoke about the possibility of significant decrease in rainfall activity over south peninsula, Maharashtra and Goa.
The prevailing western disturbance has already caused light to moderate rainfall at a few places over northwest India. Scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow has been forecast over western Himalayan region from Tuesday.
India Met Department (IMD) classification of a depression requires that winds speed up to between the threshold 17-27 knots (31 to 50 km/hr) range.
But no declaration of a depression in the Arabian Sea was forthcoming on Monday. The IMD update merely said that the well-marked ‘low’ over Lakshadweep is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.
WARM SEAS
The JTWC update valid at 2.30 p.m. said that satellite imagery of the area of convection located around 555 km west-northwest of Kochi featured multiple bands of deep convection consolidating about the Low Level Circulation Centre (LLCC), the storm nucleus.
Due to the increased convective consolidation fuelled by the very warm seas off the southwest coast, the JTWC upgraded the potential for the development of a significant tropical storm to ‘good.’
The latest satellite picture (5.30 p.m.) put out by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre showed that the system may already have come under the influence of a dominating westerly trough.
This has caused the convection bands to stray into north-northeast into west-central India. Leading international models had hinted at the possibility of the system as a whole being driven this way inland.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the IMD said in its update that the eastward-bound westerly system has crossed into the country across the northwest border. Precipitation outlook from the US National Centres of Environmental Prediction suggested that the ongoing rains may weaken after the Arabian Sea system makes a landfall over the next two days.
But the Kerala coast and the Tamil Nadu coast would continue to witness rain or thundershowers triggered by residual moisture being fanned across the peninsula by the easterlies during until Monday next.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the northeast monsoon was vigorous over Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema while being active over Kerala during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Maharashtra and Goa during the next three days.
Scattered rain or thundershowers is also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan from Thursday. A warning for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and madhya Maharashtra. Fishermen were advised not to venture into sea along west coast.
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep; at many places over Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over north coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Forecast until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana.
A warning valid for the period said that scattered heavy with isolated very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep area.
The Chennai Met Centre has also warned of squally weather with wind speed reaching 50 to 60 km/hr along and off the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and over Lakshadweep during this period.
IMD satellite pictures showed convective clouds over parts of southeast and east-central Arabian Sea, south Bay of Bengal, south Andhra Pradesh, coastal areas of Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
An IMD forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over extreme south peninsular India during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.
Outlook until Saturday spoke about the possibility of significant decrease in rainfall activity over south peninsula, Maharashtra and Goa.
The prevailing western disturbance has already caused light to moderate rainfall at a few places over northwest India. Scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow has been forecast over western Himalayan region from Tuesday.
A part of the Ooty-Coonoor national highway damaged by heavy rains on sunday .. http://ping.fm/EAGpf
Satellite shows the north-west moving Arabian depression and south-central bay is active again .. http://yfrog.com/3mfhqj
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