Thursday, December 31, 2009

Indian Weatherman Team wishes all our Followers & Readers a *** Happy 2010 ***
Don’t be scared by blue moon, say astronomists ..
NCMRWF:: Still predicts a Huge low pressure system Just east -south-east of Srilanka on 7-Jan..
It seems the activity over SOuth Bay & Arabian sea has just died down a bit today.
Rainfall on 30-Dec-09:: Sakleshpura (Hassan dt) 6, Virajpet (Kodagu dt) 4 , Armoor & Bheemgal (both Nizamabad dt), Hallimysore and Minicoy 1
Heavy isolated afternoon showers along North Kerala & South Coastal Karnataka ..
Showers for Coastal Karnataka and even for Goa & Coastal Maharastra to continue till 3-Jan-10.
Threat from Bay for Tamilnadu is not going to materialize till 6-Jan-10 .. .. South & South-East Bay is very active for more than a week now.
South-East Arabian sea system is still active and it'll be till 2-Jan-10 ..
All of a sudden WHOLE india looks clear to welcome NEW YEAR ..
Second time since 1741 when the world saw a lunar eclipse on a New Year’s day...
"Blue Moon" to Shine on New Year's Eve ...

After 1741, 2010 to witness lunar eclipse on NEW year day.

On a full blue moon day on Thursday, skywatchers will have a bonanza when they find the lunar radiance, rather dim, as the country witnesses a partial lunar eclipse. The phenomenon, according to astrophysicists, is only the second time since 1741 when the world saw a lunar eclipse on a New Year’s day.

A partial lunar eclipse occurs when only part of the Moon passes through the darkest part of the Earth’s shadow.

The eclipse is scheduled to begin when the Moon enters the Earth’s shadow at 10:47 pm, and it ends at 02:58:11 am. The start of the partial eclipse will be at 00:22:43 am on January 1, 2010. It will end at 01:22:41 am.

“Although the partial phase of the eclipse lasts for an hour, only 7 per cent of the diameter of the Moon is covered by the umbral shadow of the Earth, which is too negligible to be easily visible,” said N Rathnashree, director of Nehru Planetarium.

When a second full moon in a calendar month appears in the night sky, the occurrence is known as a blue moon. There are 12 full moons most years, but every two or three years there is an extra full moon which is called a blue moon.

“Such an eclipse of the Moon will be difficult to discern with naked eye—although an astrophotograph of the Moon might just show a hint of darkening over a very tiny region of the Moon,” Rathnasree said.

According to scientists, the astronomical event can be seen all over Asia and Europe, major parts of Africa and a small portion of southwestern Australia.

“The beginning, the middle and the ending of the eclipse will be visible from all parts of India,” Science Popularisation Association of Communicators and Educators (SPACE) Director C B Devgun said.

The beginning of the umbral phase will be visible from the extreme southeastern part of Australia, middle of South and North Pacific Ocean and extreme Solomon Island. The ending of the umbral phase will be visible from North and South Atlantic Ocean and Greenland.
Till 5-Jan-10, heavy showers for West, and North-west India and till 15-Jan-10, showers for South-East India ..???
Unusually Late Rain in India and more to come ...

"Blue Moon" to Shine on New Year's Eve

For the first time in almost 20 years, a bright "blue moon" will grace New Year's Eve celebrations worldwide. (Take a moon myths quiz.)

If the skies are clear, revelers looking up at midnight will get an eyeful of the second full moon of the month—commonly called a blue moon. The last time a blue moon appeared on New Year's Eve was in 1990, and it won't happen again until 2028.

With this New Year's Eve blue moon, "there is nothing scientific about it, and it has no astronomical significance," said Mark Hammergren, a staff astronomer at the Adler Planetarium in Chicago, Illinois.

"But I believe it does give us some insight into history and makes us think of how our calendar system has derived from motions of objects in the sky."

Blue Moon Error

The popular definition of a blue moon isn't the only one—and it's one that's based on an editorial error, astronomers contend.

The widespread definition of the second full moon in a month stems from errors made in an astronomy magazine, when a writer misinterpreted how the term was used in the Maine Farmer's Almanac.

Later studies of almanacs published from 1819 to 1962 revealed that the term "blue moon" actually refers to the "extra" full moon that can occur in a year due to differences between the calendar year and the astronomical year.

(Related: "Leap Year—How the World Makes Up for Lost Time.")

Most years on average have 12 full moons, with 1 appearing each month.

That's because the lunar month—the time it takes the moon to cycle through its phases—corresponds closely to the calendar month.

But the calendar year is actually based on the solar cycle, or the time it takes Earth to make one trip around the sun. This means a year is not evenly divisible by lunar months, so every three years or so there are 13 full moons.

The farmer's almanac further divided the year into four seasons, with each season lasting three months. When a given season saw four full moons, the almanac dubbed the third moon as a blue moon.

Ultimately, a blue moon as defined by the calendar isn't that rare, added Hammergren. The term's significance instead lies in the way it links people to the motions of the cosmos.

"Just being able to recognize that we can have a full moon twice in a month and have [folklore] attached really highlights the fact that humans have been astronomers their entire existence," he said.

"True" Blue Moon

Before the editorial error, the term "blue moon" more often referred to the rare instances when the moon actually seemed to turn blue, as can happen under certain atmospheric conditions.

"After a forest fire or volcanic eruption, there may be enough particulate matter in the air so that the moon can take on a bluish tinge," Hammergren said.

For instance, a "true" blue moon occurred in 1950 after a large forest fire in Canada blew smoke across most of the Northern Hemisphere.

Another appeared in 1980 after the last major eruption of Mount St. Helens, which sent tons of ash into the upper atmosphere.

Although rumblings at the Mayon Volcano in the Philippines seem to signal a major eruption is imminent, experts don't think Mayon's current output will make this New Year's Eve full moon turn blue.

Howling at the Blue Moon

Even if the 2009 New Year's Eve blue moon has astronomers scoffing, nighttime partygoers may still get moonstruck.

Rising in the east at sunset, the New Year's Eve full moon will reach its highest point at midnight, noted Jack Horkheimer, director of the Miami Space-Transit Planetarium and host of PBS television's long-running show Star Gazer.

"Full moons around winter solstice rise their highest for the entire year," Horkheimer added.

"Even if you are downtown in a large city, if it is clear at the stroke of midnight the moon will be very visible if you look up."

In any location, the high, silvery orb will seem like a floodlight cast on the landscape, added Horkheimer, who is organizing a national moon-howling contest around this year's blue moon.

"This is especially true where the ground is covered with a blanket of snow. There is nothing quite so spectacular as a snow-covered scene under a December full moon at midnight."

From National Geographic

Unusually Late Rain in India

Taken from Jim's Blog,
Rain has broken out along the southern Deccan and neighboring west coast of southern India during the last few days. Rainfall of 23 mm was observed as of Monday at Bangalore whereas sea-side Mangalore picked up about 6 cm since Sunday. This would be unusually late in the season for rain this far north.

If the lateness of the south India rain were not enough, there is more of it on the way. For help in understanding this, the reader may wish to go here to look at the IMD infrared satellite imagery.

The COLA site compiles GFS forecast rainfall ("QPF") in a fortnightly outlook:

During the first forecast week, forecast rainfall is shown for most of the west coast/Western Ghats,
even reaching into northern India and Nepal. The underlying trigger for this forecast of rain would be two separate troughs in the Westerlies forecast to cross the Subcontinent from the west.

First of these western disturbances will swing quickly across the Subcontinent during the next 24-48 hours, triggering showers and thunderstorms in the recurving stream of tropical moisture. The idea that a few spots will get heavy falls--say, 10 cm or so--seems valid to me.

Look for another western disturbance to dip through the Khaleej of South West Asia before transiting the Subcontinent at week`s end. It is this second western disturbance that could trigger a little New Year`s Day rain at Mumbai.

I do not yet know what to make of it, but the second week of the forecast is shown to be unusually wet over eastern India. It is something to watch during the coming days.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009 ... This is how the South-west Bay will look on 6-Jan-09 .. NCMRWF
Still heavy showers over Maldives, Lakshadweep, and south-Interior karnataka .. .. South and South-East Bay is very active.. soon it'll host a LOW pressure system.
Rainfall occurred on 29-Dec, at most places over Lakshadweep and North interior Karnataka and at many places over South interior Karnataka.
VERY heavy Rainfall on 29-Dec:: Ajjampura (Chickmagalur dt) 14, Tarekere ((Chickmagalur dt) 12, Bhadravathi (Shimoga dt) 8 and Gadag 7 cm.
Due to the Arabian sea Circulation the Rains are started pushing into north Karnataka and soon into South Maharastra as well. .. Meanwhile the cyclonic circulation over South-East Arabian sea still persists.
North-west Bay, Orissa & North-east Andhra is under a High pressure Anti-Cyclone ..
31-Dec-09, New year's eve is going to be wet for Coastal Karnataka & south-Interior Karnataka ..
Partial Lunar Eclipse and Blue Moon New Year's Eve ..
Famous San Francisco sea lions leave in droves .. .. May be a Sign of danger/natural disaster coming from Earth OR Sea.
Health Tip: Protect Yourself From Air Pollution ..

Mercury dip offers cold comfort ahead of New Year

North and north-west India continued to reel under winter chill as a cold snap loomed large threatening to extend a ‘limb' further into east and north-east India.

There is no signal yet of the arrival of a strong western disturbance system, the warmth around which from lower pressure and ascending air could likely offer some respite.


In what could likely be cold comfort for revellers, no such system is expected to affect northwest India at least during the next five days when the year turns into the ‘New.'

Cold wave conditions prevailed in parts of Haryana, Punjab and of Himachal Pradesh and at isolated places in east Uttar Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

Maximum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and West Bengal.

Night temperatures too were below normal over Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Orissa and Assam.


However, they were above normal over south Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and north Karnataka due largely to cloudiness from moisture feed traced to south-east Arabian Sea.

On Monday, the lowest minimum temperature of minus 0.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view that the cold snap would become entrenched over east and northeast India during the first 15 days of the New Year.

The peripheral ring of seasonal chill would progressively filter into central India (Madhya Pradesh and north Maharashtra) before sending cooler winds into peninsular India.

Some parts of this region, especially south interior Karnataka and adjoining Rayalaseema, could feel the bite during this phase.

Arrival of a western disturbance is indicated around January 5, but it remains to be seen how strong the system would be and to what extent it could alter weather over the north-west.

But a feeble western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. Light to isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, a confluence of winds is taking place over central and adjoining peninsular India. This has also been breeding some unsettled weather over the region.


The IMD located a smorgasbord of cyclonic circulations dotting the landscape backed up by troughs of low pressure over the adjoining seas – south-east Arabian Sea and south-west Bay of Bengal.

Cyclonic circulations with associated wind flow patterns were stayed perched above Lakshadweep; coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal; and Konkan-Goa and adjoining Madhya Maharashtra.

The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in an update that overnight rainfall has been reported from most places over Lakshadweep; at many places over coastal Karnataka and at a few places over interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala and interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated rainfall has also been forecast along west coast, central and adjoining east India and the south peninsula.

Going to be once in a "blue" moon

Sky gazers await once in a blue moon phenomenon on New Year's eve. Announcing this to reporters in Chennai today, Director of Birla Planetarium P Iyamperumal said the lunar eclipse on 31 December can be viewed in Chennai and the annual solar eclipse on 15 January, a rare happening after 108 years, can be viewed from Kanyakumari.

'The lunar eclipse will take place from 12.21 pm to 1.24 am. About 80 per cent of the eclipse can be viewed from Chennai. It can be watched with the naked eye,' he said.

Stating that special arrangements had been made at the planetarium to watch the eclipse, he said an exclusive goggle is needed for the purpose.

Meanwhile, an agency report from New Delhi said when a second full moon in a calendar month appears in the night sky, the occurrence is known as a blue moon.

There are 12 full moons most years but every two or three years there is an extra full moon which is called a blue moon.

'We've already had a full moon on 2 December and the next one is on New Year’s Eve that is on 31 December,' Science Popularisation Association of Communicators and Educators (SPACE) president C B Devgun said.

On rare occasions the moon actually had a blue appearance - often caused by smoke from large-scale fires or excessive dust particles in the atmosphere.

Explaining the phenomena of bue moons, Devgun said the moon cycle takes about 29.53 days to complete that is almost a month. That is why there's one full moon once a month, at least on most years.

'Because the lunar cycle does not reach a full 30 days, the full moon happens about a half-a-day earlier each month. So over time, this small difference eventually pushes the date of the full moon until there can be two full moons in one month. When this happens, the second full moon in that month is called the blue moon,' Devgun said.

This comes about quite rarely, only about seven times in 19 years, which is equal to one blue moon every 2.7 years more or less.

The next blue moon will occur on 21 November, 2010. After that, planet watchers will have to wait until 21 August, 2013, to see another blue moon.

Longest annular eclipse of the sun on Jan15

Sky enthusiasts in India, especially in Tamil Nadu, will have a rare opportunity to witness the longest annular eclipse of the sun, occurring on Jan 15 next.

"The annular phase runs from 10.44 am (IST),when the eclipse begins in the Central African Republic to the end of the eclipse on the Chinese Yellow Sea coast at 14.29 pm (IST)," Tamilnadu Science and Technology Centre Executive Director Dr P Iyamperumal told PTI today.

He said the maximum duration of annularity would reach 11 min 08 sec over Indian Ocean thus making it the longest annular eclipse.

Stating that this was a rare event happening about 108 years in Tamil Nadu, he said ""the annular eclipse will be visible from Kanyakumari, Nagercoil, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Tuticorin, Rameshwaram, Madurai, Rajapalayam, Sivaganga, Karikudi, Pudukottai, Nagapatinam, Tanjavur, Kumbakonam, Mayiladuthurai and Chidambaram".
For tamilnadu, especially the central & south coastal zone, the 1st & 2nd week of New Year is going to be WET.
Chennai - Not a cold morning .. and now 10:12am its cloudy and movement from East. Bay is getting active to host another round of showers. .. Lakshadweep & south Kerala got some showers over night
Showers slowly pushing into Karnataka and a cloud connectivity can be seen upto Uttar Pradesh ..
Slowly & Steadily the South Bay LOW pressure system is materializing ..

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Heavy afternoon showers to continue for Coastal & south-Interior Karnataka till 1-Jan-10 ..
Heavy cloud formation again over Lakshadweep & South Bay is very active ..
ECMWF too agrees with the IMD outlook for end of 1st week - LOW over SW bay and wheeling into Chennai & South Andhra coast.
IMD: Forecast 1st Week of Jan, LOW over south-west Bay of Bengal may erupt, wheeling to cross the Chennai-south coastal Andhra Pradesh belt.
On Sunday, 27-Dec, the lowest minimum temperature of -1.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Adampur in Punjab.
Models had forecast the ongoing rains over the west coast and adjoining west-central peninsula, which could creep into central India
circulation tossed up by the easterly wave persisted over the Lakshadweep Islands on Monday supported at the ground level by the ‘warm pool'
IMD: strong northwesterly winds in the lower troposphere over the Indo-Gangetic plains would sustain themselves over the next two days.
IMD:: 10 per cent surplus the north-east monsoon season has notched up at the end of the penultimate week ending December 23.
South peninsular India is still being impacted by the easterly wave, though associated weather activity has shifted to the west coast.
North-East monsoon in surplus as more rain is forecast ..

North-East monsoon in surplus as more rain is forecast

Peninsular India and parts of central India are forecast to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during this week that would also witness the dawn of the New Year 2010.

South peninsular India is still being impacted by the easterly wave, though associated weather activity has shifted to the west coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are still at elevated levels (up to 30 deg Celsius) over this region, which supports convection and cloud-building.


This is expected to help maintain, if not add to, the 10 per cent surplus the north-east monsoon season has notched up at the end of the penultimate week ending December 23.

Of the 36 Met sub-divisions, at least 24 received excess or normal rainfall thus far, while it was deficient in eight, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

But, the four sub-divisions in the extreme northwest - west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Saurashtra-Kutch – continued to wallow in the ‘scanty' category.

The rain-bearing western disturbances have largely failed them since they lacked enough ‘spin' to wet the landscape. But the immediate east and south-east to these areas received adequate rainfall.

As for the south, outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) is forecast to stay negative (a proxy for expected cloudiness) over equatorial Indian Ocean until mid-January if international model prognosis is to be believed.

This would go to support the case for a trough of low pressure around the area during the period and, by extension, associated weather activity.

This is exactly what the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) predicts for the rest of the month and into the New Year, with a likely weather system thrown in over Sri Lanka around January 6.


The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said that the week ending January 3, 2010, would see a warm south-east Arabian Sea push moisture into west-central and central peninsula supported by westerly flows (almost mimicking Cyclone Phyan flows earlier during this season).

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia too tends to agree mostly with this outlook in its six-day forecast ending December 31.

The following week (January 4 to 12), according to the NCEP, is likely to see the scene once again shift to southwest Bay of Bengal. But the core of the rains would get pushed east-northeast over the open Bay of Bengal under westerly influence.

Meanwhile, the Chennai Met Centre said in its update on Sunday that rainfall was reported from a few places over Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.


North and north-west India have been blanketed by a winter chill with minimum temperatures falling to below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Cold wave conditions prevailed over isolated pockets of Punjab and Haryana where the minimum is below normal by 4 to 5 deg Celsius. The lowest minimum of 0.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar.

An IMD forecast has said that cold and strong northwesterly winds would prevail over the Indo-Gangetic plains for three more days.

A feeble western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days. But the warmth that it carries in front would not be sufficient to cause any large change in minimum temperatures over the plains of northwest India.

Given this, cold wave conditions are likely over isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.

Heavy rains in south as chill spreads over north-west India

An easterly wave active over the southern peninsula, especially over south-east Arabian Sea, has ramped up the north-east monsoon to ‘vigorous' status over Kerala.

In contrast, a relentless barrage of cold and dry northwesterlies sustained the chill over north and northwest India during the last 24 hours with no sign of abating anytime soon.


The strong northwesterly winds in the lower troposphere over the Indo-Gangetic plains would sustain themselves over the next two days as well, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday.

A feeble western disturbance would affect Jammu and Kashmir during this period and cause rain or snow over adjoining Himachal Pradesh also. But no large change in minimum temperatures is likely over plains of north-west India.

Given this, cold wave conditions are likely to continue over isolated places over Punjab, Haryana and East Uttar Pradesh during this period.

An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that heavy to very heavy overnight rainfall has been reported from many places over Kerala and south interior Karnataka during the last 24 hours ending Monday morning.

A few places over Lakshadweep, coastal and north interior Karnataka too received moderate rainfall while it was isolated over Tamil Nadu.


International models had forecast the ongoing rains over the west coast and adjoining west-central peninsula, which could gradually creep over to parts of central India and adjoining east India.

The causative cyclonic circulation tossed up by the easterly wave persisted over the Lakshadweep Islands on Monday supported at the ground level by the ‘warm pool' (28 to 30 deg Celsius) in the south-east Arabian Sea hugging the Kerala/Karnataka coast.

Prevailing westerly winds are sweeping moisture from this part of the sea into the hinterland where it is being dumped as rain. Kerala and adjoining south interior Karnataka benefited the most from these rains during the last 24 hours.

An IMD update on Monday has, however, said that a trough of low lay stretched from south-east Arabian Sea into the Karnataka coast.

This meteorological feature would allow moisture to be piped in and the rains to sustain over the mainland.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala and Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Another trough of low was located over south-west Bay of Bengal with a cyclonic circulation over coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south-west Bay. But the seawaters had cooled down considerably over this area curbing convection and rainfall.

The IMD has forecast isolated rainfall activity along the west coast and over central and adjoining east India and south peninsula during the next three days.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said in its outlook for the next seven days that rainfall up to 600 per cent above normal for this time of the year may get recorded over the southwest coast and the immediate interior.

Forecast for the following week suggested that south-west Bay of Bengal may erupt with activity once again with a likely low-pressure area wheeling in to cross the Chennai-south coastal Andhra Pradesh belt.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too agrees with the outlook though it found the ‘low' mostly active around south-east Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka.

The activity is shown as peaking around January 5 with the entire extreme south peninsular India and entire Sri Lanka getting ensconced within a trough of low pressure, with or without a ‘low'.

In the north, severe cold wave conditions prevailed in some parts of Haryana and Punjab while cold wave conditions were reported from isolated places in Jharkhand and east Uttar Pradesh.

Minimum temperatures are below normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab and Haryana and by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, adjoining West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh, an IMD update said.

On Sunday, the lowest minimum temperature of -1.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Adampur in Punjab. A feeble western disturbance has been persisting over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood.

IMD forecast until January 2 spoke about the possibility of isolated rainfall over parts of north-eastern states and extreme south peninsular India.
Chennai - will witness more low cloud formation today & day time temperature will be +1 or +2 deg above yesterday.
Satellite shows subdued Arabian sea activity over lakshadweep & Heavy showers continue over maldives ..
Showers for Coastal Karnataka & North Kerala to continue till 2-Jan-10 ..
Entire south Bay is active now ..

Monday, December 28, 2009

Heavy rainfall on 27-Dec, over Kerala and South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Coastal and North interior Karnataka ..
Heavy showers along Western Srilanka, and more showers moving in for coastal Karnataka & North Kerala .. ... Lakshadweep getting good showers.. Minicoy recorded 17mm till 5:30pm IST

Heavy rainfall over Karnataka & Kerala on 27-Dec-09

Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Kerala.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and South Interior Karnataka and at a few places over Lakshadweep, Coastal and North interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamilnadu. Mainly dry weather prevailed Rayalaseema and dry weather prevailed over Telangana and Coastal Andhrapradesh.
The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in centimetres:
Mannarkkad (Palakkad dt) 10 and Kottayam, Kamuthi (Ramanathapuram dt), Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt), Kollegal (Chamrajnagar dt) and Channapatna (Bangalore Rural dt) 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Peermade (Idukki dt) 6, Kanjirapalli (Kottayam dt), Virajpet and Somwarpet (both Kodagu dt), Bandipura and Yelandur (both Chamrajnagar dt) 5 each, Vellanikara, Minicoy and Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt) 4 each, Mavelikara, Haripad and Chengannur (all Alapuzha dt), Bellatti (Gadag dt), Madikeri, Napoklu (Kodagu dt), Pechipparai (Kanyakumari dt) and Kunda Bridge (Nilgiris dt) 3 each, Perumbavur (Ernakulam dt), Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt), Kavaratti, Theni, Ketti and Naduvattam (both Nilgiris dt), Dharmasthala (Dakshina Kannada dt), Ron (Gadag dt), Madapura (Kodagu dt), Bangalore 2 each and Vadakara (Kozhikode dt), Ambalavayal (Wynad dt), Chalakudy (Thrissur dt), Aluva (Ernakulam dt), Kayamkulam (Alapuzha dt), Kozha (Kottayam dt), Tiruchendur (Tuticorin dt), Coonoor, Devala and Kothagiri (both Nilgiris dt), Bagalkote, Lakkavalli (Chikmagalur dt), Mysore, Nanjangud and T. Narsipura (both Mysore dt), Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt), Santhebennur (Davanagere dt) 1 each.
Due to Arabian sea LOW system, Heavy showers forecast for Coastal Karnataka, North Kerala & Goa on 31-Dec-09 ..
GFS predicts that the 1st week of 2010 will witness a huge LOW/Depression over South bay ..
Will both Arabian sea & South Bay system re-energize NE showers for Tamilnadu..?? We'll keep it updated.
Take a look at this Alarming cloud formation over central & south Arabian sea .. ... south Bay is very active all thru night and now also.
Here's the latest satellite showing heavy showers for Lakshadweep ..
Heavy showers for Laksadweep & forecast of more showers for coastal Karnataka ..
Erupting Mayon Volcano Drawing More International Tourists ..
Foggy mornings ahead for Delhi ..
National capital (Delhi) recording the season's lowest temperature of 5.2 degrees Celsius. on 26-Dec ..
Monks, tourists, villagers mark Asian tsunami ,...
Vocano Mayon continues to grumble..
Mayon Volcano :: Lull before the 'Big Bang' ..
Chennai - Around 2pm will be warm as compared to previous 2 days.
Chennai - Morning temperature was not that LOW as compared to previous 2 days... More low cloud formation expected from today.
More heavy showers predicted for Coastal Karnataka in another 48 hrs ..
Heavy showers forecast along Coastal Karnataka, North Kerala and even into Goa .. ... Eastern srilanka is still active. ... Heavy showers along Maldives and Laksahdweep. .. South Arabian sea along 70 N is very active and this system is already pushing showers along Coatal Karnataka.
South Bay over 5th parallel was very active overnight ..

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Gulf of Mannar is active with Heavy showers: Thiruchendur got 8mm of rainfall till 8:30pm IST
RT @beastoftraal: Sudden winter rain in Bangalore! FTW
RT @thirumalesh: (4h ago) It is raining here in Bangalore... My cough and cold has become a never ending story :-( rain
RT @kamleshrao: Bangalore Rain... Unpredictable rain...
Bangalore receiving heavy showers .. till 8:30pm IST rainfall is 33mm
RT @shikhasureka: pouring in bangalore in totally unpredictable..
Most of North India is clear and with high pressure around.. the cold wave conditions will continue for next 48 hrs.
South Peninsula :: Medak recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 12 C on 26-Dec-09.
As GFS model predicted more rains are pushing into coastal Karnataka and Kerala .. .. more showers till 30-Dec
Gulf of Mannar is getting Heavy showers and South Arabian sea activity still continues..
8:30pm IST satellite shows:: Heavy showers over central & north coastal Kerala ..
Today also we have reports of more showers over south coastal Karnataka, Lashadweep and central & North Kerala.
Rainfall on 26-Dec-09:: Jayapura (Chickmagalur dt) 6, Thalasserry (Cannur dt) 5, Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt) and Agathi Airport 4 CM.
Heavy Rainfall has occurred over south coastal Karnataka, lakshadweep and over North Kerala on 26-Dec-09.
There's a 90% chance that South & Central Tamilnadu coast will start getting showers from 2-Jan-09 ..
coming up .. 2-Jan-09:: Huge low pressure area along 5th parallel .. NCMRWF: .. and GFS:
South, South-East Bay along 5th parallel will host a Huge Circulation from 1-Jan-10 ..
Arabian sea circulation to continue till 3-Jan-10.. and Lakshadweep & Coastal Karnataka will rcv showers .
Chennai - Low temperature was 22.8°C (6:39am)... Will be a clear day with some useless cloud formation around... Evening will be dry & cold.
Rainfall on Christmas day 25-Dec-09:: Chinna Kallar (Coimbatore Dt) 3, Agathi Airport 2 and Kavaratti and Valparai 1 CM.
Very heavy showers still forecast for Coastal Karnataka & Goa on 29,30,31-Dec-09.. .. Showers are also forecast for southern districts of Tamilnadu. .. more showers for Eastern & south Eastern Srilanka... .. Lakshadweep & Maldives are getting heavy showers.. some showers are spilling into coastal Karnataka.
Entire 5th parallel from south Arabian sea to south-east Bay is very active with Low pressure all around ..

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Goa, Bangalore and Chennai may be in for showers from 30-Dec and into New year's eve ..
South central and south west peninsula may be in for Showers around new ear's eve ..
ANALYSIS shows Already there's a low level circulation over south-east Bay, 5th parallel ..
And in coming days we'll witness more activity over south-east Bay and that too along 5th parallel ..
South & south-east Arabian sea is very active for the past 10 days.. Heavy cloud formation along the 5th parallel..
US technology to help India chase monsoon ..

A Puzzle Named `Ward`

Taken from "Jim Andrew's Blog ::", posted on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:31 AM

Looking back, Tropical Cyclone Ward was, from my recollection, a slow starter that took days to spin up within the ITCZ east of Sri Lanka. Ward then peaked late last week as a tropical cyclone east and northeast of Sri Lanka. As of Tuesday, Ward was downgraded to a tropical depression.

What is more, I recall that this weather system has been baffling numerical forecasts since well ahead of its naming. And it seems to still be doing so.

(I say all of this cautiously as I was in no way focused upon the weather in this area during the last week or so.)

Anyways, the JTWC have issued a `final warning` on Ward. However, satellite imagery as of Tuesday has shown a tropical weather system still being supported aloft by good radial outflow. And the GFS, rather than killing Ward over southern India, keeps its center right off the Tamil coast before veering it northeast to the open Bay of Bengal.

Something like this odd behavior could happen, I believe. Tropical cyclones are `reluctant` to make landfall at times when air over land is cooler and drier than that over water. Thus, owing to light steering winds, I see the possibility of some `fancy footwork` that would allow a persisting circulation center to drift northward and then northeastward during the next few days. I would not rule out Ward`s regaining storm status.

Thus far, rainfall linked to Ward has been about 18.8 cm at Karaikal, Tamil Nadu. I am not aware of high amounts on Sri Lanka, though I believe this to be likely.

Looking forward, I foresee heavy falls and flooding, in a localized way, along and near the Tamil coast to about Chennai. It looks as though the heaviest rains would shift slowly northward before either dissipating or, should Ward reemerge over the Bay, leaving for open water.
There's a 100% chance that a LOW pressure system forming over South-east corner of Bay ..
Arabian sea westerlies is seen pushing high clouds into central India as well ..
South-east Corner of Arabian sea over Maldives is still active for more than a week now ..
Easterlies still active along East Srilanka coast ..
Chennai - Morning low temperature was 23.6°C (7:03am)

Friday, December 25, 2009

South-East Bay might host a LOW pressure or Depression on 1-Jan-2010 .. ... ODD??
Rainfall on 24-Dec-09:: Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 4, Pamban 2 and Minicoy 1 cm.
Latest analysis shows:: low level circulation over Lakshadweep & Maldives ..
The present Arabian sea system is keeping the easterly wave still active along south & central Tamilnadu coast and over Srilanka.
Arabian sea system is giving heavy showers for Maldives and into Lakshadweep seas ..
South-east Arabian sea is very active.. this is rare at this point of time..
Strong northwesterly winds prevail over Indo-Gangetic plains of India.
Lowest minimum temperature of 0.6 C was recorded at Sarsawa (West Uttar Pradesh).
Evening of 25-Dec:: Min temperature was between 5-10 C over parts of East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Evening of 25-Dec:: Minimum temperatures are below 5 C over parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and Uttarakhand
Chennai - Have seen the last of North-East-2009 showers... No more showers expected after this day 25-Dec-09
GFS models predict that Easterlies over Bay will totally clear off in another 72 hrs.
GFS still predicts that present Arabian sea system and westerlies will bring showers for Goa coast around 28,29-Dec ... Low pressure over Maldives still persists.. this is keeping the Easterlies still active over Bay.
Easterlies is still active along Eastern srilanka ..
Chennai - These Low cloud formation around afternoon will soon vanish in coming days as the Easterlies totally die out.
Chennai - Going to be a partly cloudy mid-morning and into afternoon with some Low cloud formation.
Chennai - A cold Christmas morning 22.9°C (6:28am) compared to past 4 days.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Goa to get very heavy showers on new years eve ..?? .. Keep tracking
GFS predicts that the Arabian sea system will strike coastal Karnataka on 29-Dec..
There's a high possibility that Arabian sea system will take North-east Direction because the upper air current is from SW to NE.
Around 29-Dec-09, the present Arabian system will move in a North-east Direction and cause Heavy showers for Coastal Karnataka & Goa.
Satellite at 9:30am IST .. .. Some showers are still forecast for Eastern Srilanka.
Satellite shows that the Bay is clearing up a day before Christmas.. Except for a Band of cloud connecting Arabian sea system .,

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

More showers heading for central and south Tamilnadu coast ..
Today morning's cloud mass east of Srilanka has become stronger and huge ..
Morning's Huge cloud formation east of Srilanka still persists 2:30pm IST..
Chennai - Heavy cloud formation over south-west suburbs... possibility of shower is increased to 90%.
Around 28-Dec-09, a high possibility of wide Cyclonic circulation forming at the north-west tip of Sumatra ..
Till 24-Dec-09, the easterly wave is going to be active over central & south Coastal Tamilnadu.. .. even on 25-Dec
NCMRWF:: Analysis shows a High pressure building up over Central India .. .. This will propagate the Cold weather.
NCMRWF:: Analysis shows a Low level circulation south-east of Srilanka and Easterlies active over NE Srilanka ..
IMD: Easterly wave over Bay activates N-E monsoon ..
Autralia's first of this season: Tropical Cyclone Laurence (a report) ...

Easterly wave activates N-E monsoon

A prevailing easterly wave has helped power the NorthEast monsoon to be active over coastal Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.

Rainfall has been reported from many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu. Isolated rainfall was reported over Kerala and Rayalaseema.

Wind Confluence

The confluence of winds traced over central India seems to have shifted to the seas. Opposing winds blowing into a trough had triggered activity over south-south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining southwest Indian Ocean.

In a similar fashion, a confluence has been taking place over southwest Bay of Bengal just to the east of Sri Lanka in association with the easterly wave.

Additional ground support was being provided by the sea-surface temperatures that continued to be elevated over south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining southwest Indian Ocean and slightly less so over the south-west Bay of Bengal.

Wind streamline maps over land showed that the easterlies blowing into the peninsula had pushed up the anti-cyclone to the north over the peninsula.

The north-easterlies filling the southern flanks of the anti-cyclone had caused the moisture-laden easterlies from the Bay of Bengal to make a token presence over the peninsula.

Rain forecast

The Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, has said in its forecasts for the next two days that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu.

Thundershowers are also likely at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka.

Cloud imagery on Tuesday showed convective clouds over parts of southwest Bay of Bengal and southeast Arabian Sea.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained its outlook for a basin-wide area of trough of low pressure showing up over south Bay of Bengal, equatorial Indian Ocean and southeast Arabian Sea during the whole of this week.

Towards the north, minimum temperatures slumped by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius over east Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana.

Adampur in Punjab recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 0 degree Celsius on Monday as cold northwesterlies (as against warmer westerlies) began to fill the plains tracking the movement of a western disturbance to the east.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast has said that strong northwesterly winds will prevail over Indo-Gangetic plains during the next four days.

This is expected to cause a further fall in minimum temperatures by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next three days.

For the first time this season, the IMD has warned of ground frost conditions over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during next three days.

Cold and chilly conditions can lift only with the arrival of the next western disturbance from across the border. The Global Forecast System of the US Fleet Meteorological Oceanography Centre has indicated the arrival of such a system around the weekend.

Autralia's first of this season: Tropical Cyclone Laurence

Tropical Cyclone Laurence made its second landfall over Western Australia on December 21, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image a short time before the eye went ashore.
Laurence was a Category 4 storm (on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with winds of 115 knots (213 kilometers per hour or 132 miles per hour) at its height on December 15, the day before it went ashore the first time, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It degraded into a tropical storm over land, re-emerged over the Indian Ocean and grew into a Category 3 cyclone with winds of 100 knots (185 km/hr or 115 mph) on December 21. The storm was weakening as it went ashore the second time. When Aqua MODIS acquired this photo-like image at 2:00 local time (6:00 UTC), it was somewhere between a Category 3 and Category 1 storm.
Laurence was clearly a mature, well-developed cyclone on December 21. A cloudy eye is distinctly visible as a shadowed dimple in the center of the tightly packed bands of spiraling clouds. The storm is circular, undistorted by the upper-level winds that tear cyclones apart.
The storm’s powerful winds caused significant damage to buildings along the coast, said ABC News. No injuries had been reported, though damage assessments were just beginning on the morning of December 22, when the storm had moved well inland.
Here's the track data::

Date: 13-21 DEC 2009
Cyclone-4 LAURENCE
1 -12.70 128.00 12/13/06Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 -12.10 126.90 12/13/18Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
3 -13.50 127.80 12/14/06Z 45 - TROPICAL STORM
4 -13.30 126.60 12/14/18Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
5 -14.40 125.50 12/15/06Z 75 - CYCLONE-1
6 -15.00 124.60 12/15/18Z 115 - CYCLONE-4
7 -16.30 124.20 12/16/06Z 90 - CYCLONE-2
8 -16.80 124.20 12/16/18Z 65 - CYCLONE-1
9 -17.20 123.40 12/18/12Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
10 -16.70 122.40 12/19/00Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
11 -17.30 121.80 12/19/12Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
12 -17.80 120.70 12/20/00Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
13 -18.60 120.50 12/20/12Z 80 - CYCLONE-1
14 -19.00 120.40 12/21/00Z 100 - CYCLONE-3
15 -20.00 120.80 12/21/12Z 70 - CYCLONE-1
+12 -21.10 121.20 12/22/00Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Chennai - Cold weather leads to hot sales in woollen clothing ..
ECMWF:: Wide area Low pressure showing up over south Bay, equatorial Indian Ocean and southeast Arabian Sea during the whole of this week.
Adampur in Punjab recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 0 degree Celsius on Monday, 21-Dec-09
IMD has warned of ground frost conditions over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during next three days.
Why did Copenhagen fail to deliver a climate deal? ...
IMD: Doppler weather radar station for Ramnad ..
Eastern Srilanka is in for more heavy showers till Year end 31-Dec-09.
Massive LOW pressure activity predicted over South-East corner of Bay around northern tip of Sumatra from 28-Dec-09.
Chennai - is going to be cloudy with dead high clouds, there may be some Low cloud formation after 10 am. Nothing threatening.
South-East Arabian sea is going to be very active for next 3 days.. till 25-Dec.
Today 23-Dec-09, Some heavy showers are predicted over Gulf of Mannar and South tip of Tamilnadu in afternoon or into evening.
Some sharp showers still persist over central Tamilnadu coast..
North and south coastal Tamilnadu is clearing up after heavy showers yesterday ..
East & south-east Srilanka is in for very heavy showers today ..
AS the analysis showed Easterlies is going to be strong over Eastern Srilanka.. latest satellite shows Very heavy showers for East-Srilanka.
Schools declared holiday in Delta districts.. but very less rain instore for that zone today ..

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Chennai - Chance of midnight and early morning showers have reduced to almost 20% from 70%... Expect a slightly cold morning than past 2 day
Chennai - Is slightly cold now 11:28pm, And very less low cloud formation & Movement can be seen as compared to evening..
Heavy rainfall over Central Tamilnadu coast on 21-Dec-09:: Vedaranyam 19, Muthupet (Tiruvarur dt) 9 and Adiramapattinam 8 cm Each .. Heavy showers will be concentrated over central & south-east Coast of Tamilnadu.
Satellite at 10:30pm, shows Heavy showers building up just east of Nagapatinum..
Chennai - Now 7pm we have good cloud formation from North-east .. Showers expected around Midnight or Early hrs of 23-Dec-09.
Nagercoil - Got some moderate showers at around 5pm ..
Delta region of Tamilnadu is going to have a wet night ..
Easterlies over Central and South Tamilnadu coast will continue till 26-Dec-09.
Latest analysis shows:: Easterlies is concentrating over Eastern Srilanka ..
Calcutta winter has got back its chill with the minimum temperature on Monday dropping to 15.7 degrees Celsius .
Record-breaking storm closes US federal government ..
Nice satellite shot showing the Arabian sea system & Bay Easterlies LINK ..
Circulation over South-south-east of Arabian sea is causing the Easterlies over Bay to be vigorous ..

Rainfall data from Tamilnadu till 8:30am, 21-Dec-09

IMD: Rainfall on 20-Dec-09 till morning 8:30am of 21-Dec-09.

Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt) 12, Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt), Poonamallee and Korattur (both Tiruvallur dt) 8 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:
Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt) 6, Chennai Airport and Tambaram 4 each, Agathi Airport, Anna University and DGP Office (both Chennai dt), Chennai, Chengalpattu and Maduranthagam (both Kancheepuram dt), Tiruvallur, Chembarambakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Nagapattinam and Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli dt ) 3 each, Tirupathi Airport, Sriperumbudhur and Uthiramerur (both Kancheepuram dt), Cholavaram ( Tiruvallur dt) and Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt) 2 each and Cheyyur (Kancheepuram dt), Kancheepuram, Poondi (Tiruvallur dt), Gingee (Villupuram dt), Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt), Vedaranyam, Mudukulathur and Rameswaram(both Ramanathapuram dt), Pamban, Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt) and Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt) 1 each
Easterlies will stay over south and central Tamilnadu coast for another 5 days, till 28-Dec-09
Chennai - .. will get minimal short showers in next 24 hrs and NO rain after 48hrs. .. Srilanka North-east and East will get very heavy showers for next 48 hrs.
Easterlies will weaken from 23-Dec, and will be effective over south and central Tamilnadu coast for next 48 hrs..
Chennai - at present 8:53am, No low cloud formation... Cloud formation will be there after 10am and might produce moderate short showers. ... South Kerala is also getting some showers from this Easterlies & the system over South-east Arabian sea. .. Satellite shows more shower possibility for Chennai & North Tamilnadu also. .. North-east Srilanka is getting very heavy showers from these Easterlies.
Chennai - After showers around 10pm, all thru the night and into early hrs there was just mild drizzles..
Overnite Heavy showers for south, south-east, central and even into North Coastal Tamilnadu ..
Easterlies over Bay has linked up with a circulation over south-east Arabian sea... giving more heavy showers over South coastal TN

Monday, December 21, 2009

RT @amolmathur: @Ratzzz It drizzled in tuticorin too. I missed chennai's rain by a day.
Satellite shows moderate showers for North Tamilnadu and Chennai ..
RT @sai_prasanna: The rain god seems to have made chennai base camp in india :) Its raining again..
Chennai - Rains started at 10pm after all day lull.
Latest satellite shows very heavy easterlies rain activity over north-east Srilanka and along South-east, south Tip of Tamilnadu.
Lots of activity over south, and south-west Arabian sea is making the present Easterlies rich in moisture and strong over Bay.
Very heavy cloud formation also seen over south-east Arabian sea, almost over Maldives ..
NCMRWF models predict more heavy showers for North Tamilnadu coast till 27-Dec-09 ..
5th parallel may host a low level cyclonic circulation from 26-Dec-09... It'll bring more showers to Srilanka and southern Tip of Tamilnadu
Latest low altitude wind and pressure analysis shows, more Easterlies are on way ..
More showers for Chennai and entire Tamilnadu coast from 22-Dec, morning ..
Very heavy showers over eastern and almost full of Srilanka ..
Chennai - After that morning bursts.. now 1:22pm its cloudy with Low cloud formation from North-East and with stiff wind from North-east.
RT @Ratzzz: @wiredvijay a friend was reaching chennai.. supposed to meet him at 5, rain spoiled it @softykid .. Always follow our tweets.
Easterly wave may be compressed to extreme south ...

Easterly wave may be compressed to extreme south

The northeast monsoon has managed to carry its surplus run so far (nine per cent until December 16) with almost entire peninsula and central India recording excess to normal rain.

However, the extreme northwest (Saurashtra-Kutch, west Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab) continued to throw up deficits ranging from 72 per cent to 96 per cent, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and the entire Northeasttern State, too, have totted up deficits though comparably lower (22 per cent to 39 per cent).

Easterly wave

Going forward, an IMD outlook on Sunday said that an easterly wave is likely to affect extreme south peninsular India during the first four days of the week.

International models had forecast this possibility earlier last week, but they have lately concluded that the resultant precipitation would be confined mostly to extreme south peninsular India.

This is so because they see the rain-suppressing anti-cyclone (high-pressure area with sinking air) being pushed anomalously to the south by rampaging dry westerlies.

Some of them still see the prospect of the easterly wave setting up a blow-up of rain over southeast Tamil Nadu, adjoining Gulf of Mannar and north Sri Lanka around Thursday (December 24).

Parts of coastal Tamil Nadu to the immediate north and south Kerala, too, are forecast to be brought under sporadic showers during this phase.

The warmest seas has now retreated to the south of Sri Lanka and to the northwest along the Kerala coast stretching across southwest to the east African coast.

Trough of low

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a weak trough of low pressure building progressively from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the northeast Arabian Sea during the whole of the week.

Satellite cloud imagery on Sunday showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and Jammu and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, the Chennai Regional Met Centre has predicted isolated rain or thundershowers for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.

Towards the north, minimum temperatures were above normal by over Gujarat, southwest Madhya Pradesh, peninsular India, Saurashtra and Kutch, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, parts of Arunachal Pradesh and Rajasthan and remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh.

The lowest minimum temperature of 1.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa (Uttar Pradesh).

A feeble western disturbance as an upper air system lay over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. Isolated to scattered rain or snow has been forecast over parts of western Himalayan region during next two days.

What is "closed" and "parallel" Isobars ??

Closed Isobars
Regions of high and low atmospheric pressure develop at the earth's surface for a variety of reasons, including heating or cooling, and the rising or sinking of air due to surface topography or movements of air at higher levels in the troposphere. When pressure changes occur gradually over a large area, the isobars describing the horizontal change in pressure, or the pressure gradient, will take on a banded appearance, as seen below.
Example of parallel isobars

Much of the convection that takes place on earth is more localised. When low or high pressure develops more locally, the resulting high- and low-pressure regions are cell-like systems, and isobars describing the patterns of air pressure will include one or more closed, circular isobars, as shown below.
Closed isobars around a low pressure cell.

Closed Isobars

High winds in Kanyakumari ..Why?

Mr. Anonymous said...

There were two closed isobars. One 1012 hPa close to Cape Comorin and other closerby isobar 1014 hPa is close to, say, Chennai. This PGF activated strong winds and it [was] experienced at Cape Comorin and at many places today and even in Chennai.
Wind :[12-15 KNOTS- 22-27 KMPH]
As usual the delata districts experinced moderate rainfall. Atleast by tomorrow evening some active wet weather can be expected in North Coastal TN & South CAP.
North India shivers as mercury dips further ...

North India shivers as mercury dips further

Cold conditions intensified in most parts of the northern region today as mercury dipped by several notches with Leh in Jammu and Kashmir freezing at minus 16 degrees.

The minimum temperature in Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh hovered between two to four degree Celsius below normal at several places.

Rohtak in Haryana shivered at a low of 1.8 degrees, four notches below normal, while Karnal recorded 4.8 degree Celsius, three degrees below normal, Met office said.

Patiala and Amritsar, in Punjab, recorded a minimum temperature of 5.5 and 5.8 degree Celsius respectively, even as Chandigarh recorded a low of 6.8 degrees.

Icy winds coupled with steep drop in mercury resulted in intense cold in most parts of Jammu and Kashmir on the eve of 'Chilai Kalan', the 40-day harsh winter period.

Leh, in frontier region of Ladakh, was the coldest place in the state with a low of minus 16 degrees while it recorded a day temperature of minus 1.6. Meanwhile, Kargil recorded a low and high of minus 14.2 and minus 3.6 respectively.

Leh coldest in J&K with day temp of minus 1.6 degrees Celsius Srinagar recorded a minimum of 0.4 degrees, while it settled at a maximum of 5.4 degree Celsius, making it the coldest day of the season so far.

People in Himachal Pradesh had no respite from cold as chilly winds swept across the state. Capital Shimla settled at a minimum temperature of 5.7 degrees, while it recorded a day temperature of 13.5.

Cold conditions aggravated in Rajasthan with Churu being the coldest place with a minimum temperature of 4.2 degrees.

Ganganagar and Bikaner settled at a low of 6.3 and 8 degrees respectively, while Jaipur recorded 10.4 degree Celsius.

Delhiites woke up to another misty and chilly morning as the national capital recorded a minimum of 8.4 degree Celsius. The minimum had yesterday dipped to the season's lowest of 7.7 degree Celsius.
In pictures: Europe's cold snap ...
Cold snap wreaks havoc across Europe ...
In pictures: Europe's cold snap ...
Bad weather disrupting North America travel ..
RT @nishfine: Why there is no proper drinage system in chennai? Won't the govt. see how ppls suffer at each rainy season??
RT @Rajapandiansp: cochin hot chennai cool is this starting of the end of 2012 ?????? -- NO
RT @harisankarh: late night roaming around in the Chennai city. cycle ride in the rain @ IIT. Nice ending of a eventful holiday :) gudnite folks
RT @jgblr2008: shortest day of the year has a long spell of rain in chennai. no car wash now. rain water being harvested too!
Chennai - In past 24hrs, egmore zone received 28.4 mm
These easterlies will carry heavy moisture and showers will be generated just off coast over sea and it'll move in fast and dissipate fast.
Satellite will show u nothing as of the present Rain .. ..
Around 24-Dec-09, the easterlies will ease and will stop on 25-Dec-09. .. Entire Tamilnadu coast will get widespread moderate to Heavy showers till 23-Dec-09.
Chennai - These showers are due to the Good easterlies from Bay and it'll continue till Wednesday Morning ..
Chennai - Showers were heavy than expected during early hrs... Still more Sharp showers expected with cloudy & warm intervals thru the day.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

About Bangalore

sset has left a new comment on your post "Temperature in Mumbai has dropped over the century...":

On opposite side, Bangalore has recorded 2-3 degrees increase in temperature. This is due to removal of all trees, lakes and water bodies disappearance. Huge growth in population, huge buildings coming up, massive growth of city, lack of rain is making Bangalore worst city. It should be noted city ranks high on pollution as city has largest number of vehicles.

South West Monsoon -2009 is a very very interesting point to ponder

Recently When I was at Annaikatty village in Coimbatore district the local people and frinds there reported that elephants from the western side of western ghats visit Anaikatty area very often and even the intrude unto 'THADAGAM, a village at the foot hills and close to Coimbatore city. TN Foresters were warrented.
Foresters may not able to resolve it. However one Adivasi told me that it is the SW monsonnal moist wind blowing from south direction [in Tamilnadu during SW monsoon period] invites the elephants to invade eastern slope. He further told that there is nothing to do with the blockage of ELEPHANT CORRIDOR, as reported by the TN Forest officials, but it is a change in the monsoonal wind pattern, he said. it may be true.
[2] The HEAT LOW which is responsible for the SW monsoon wind to advance further into NORTH INDIA / NW India lies in a town called Jacabobath [which is in Pakistan]The traditional monsonal trough line from there to Head bay is not prominent most of the time.
[3] The western flank of Mascerene High is not extended upto 60 DEG East and it is weak [as per Met reports]
[4] The Bay is relatively active than the Arabian sea.
[5] Four or Five years back, parts of the THAR desert was flooded and water stagnated to a depth of 20 ft. This prevented land heating.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous
IMD: models suggest that More rain for central & south Tamilnadu coast in next 72 hrs ..
Chennai - Rains started after a long day of good cloud formation .. Showers will be medium and short in nature.
Chennai - Believe it or Not ... Lowest December temperature on record is 13.9 C (11.12.1895)
Chennai - Today till now 6:32pm, we are having very good cloud formation.. 100% chance of rain after Midnight or into Early hrs of Monday.
Chennai - NO rain all day.. but had very good cloud formation and movement from North-east. .. also shows a cyclonic circulation over south-east Arabian sea.. which will boost the Flow of Easterlies in Bay
Latest satellite shows that the Very heavy cloud formation just along 5th parallel ..
From today the easterlies will start giving showers along entire Tamilnadu coast..
Chennai - Will be warm, humid thru the day and with Heavy cloud formation from North-east and with short showers.
Easterlies will be at its peak on Tuesday, 22-Dec-09 ..
Satellite shows heavy convective cloud formation over south and south-west Bay ..
Fringe of Easterlies is over coastal Tamilnadu now 20-Dec-09 almost a day ahead.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

By 22-Dec-09, the Easterlies will be over Chennai, and Entire TN coast .. ..
Latest analysis of LOW level pressure and wind suggests that Easterlies is already over south-east Bay ..
Satellite shows that the Easterlies has started affecting Andaman Islands .. ... south-east Bay is getting active.
What role do condensation trails play in our climate? ..
Monsoon Pattern Breaking Down In India's Western Ghat Region ...
Wind energy output helps cut load on Tamilnadu Electricity Board ...

Another education from Mr.Anonymous

About Minimum temperature
Minimum Temperature will occur half an hour just after Sun rise. The temperature recorded at 0611 hrs IST of date 18.12.2009 may be the minimum temperature. However the other temperature noted [26.6] may NOT be the temperature of that given time. It may be around 21.6.
Coming up ..
Further the rise in pressure and the upper wind pattern also gives an impression that there may cloud formation at SE bay [90-95 Deg East]and at Comrin sea. The "Condensation Trail" [COLTRA]seen at 10000-15000 feet above ground level [flight level 100 and 150]also gives impression that there may be wet weather within another 48 hours of time from now.
Irrigation Systems in India Decrease Monsoon Rainfall ..??? ..
"south-west Bay of Bengal cools down" ...

Rains relent as south-west Bay of Bengal cools down

Heavy rains have relented over coastal Tamil Nadu after the convective activity over southwest Bay of Bengal became subdued.

On Friday, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) had retracted over this stretch of the Bay of Bengal basin, matched only by the significant scaling-up across the peninsula over southeast Arabian Sea.

This warm pool was lying stretched right across from the east African coast and the adjoining Indian Ocean, measuring up to 30 degrees Celsius.

A cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea in the lower levels persisted on Friday, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update.

A trough from this system lay extended into Marathwada, which was causing the winds to set up confluence over central India.


Westerlies in the upper levels can whip up moisture as they blow in from this part of the Arabian Sea. In combination with the seasonally moisture-laden easterlies, they are capable of dropping some rain over the area of confluence.

Fairly widespread to scattered rain has been reported from Madhya Pradesh during the last 24 hours.

Rainfall has also been reported at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal and southern-interior Karnataka.

Forecasts by the Chennai Met Centre for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Karnataka.

International models maintain their outlook for light to scattered showers to return to the south peninsula from Monday.

South-east coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka would continue to be the areas to witness most of the rainy weather during this phase. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) a basin-wide trough of lower pressure would link the Bay of Bengal, equatorial Indian Ocean and a large part of Arabian Sea.

This is the phase that models have sought to identify with the arrival of the next wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the upper levels that has a major say on weather panning out over ground.

Towards the north, maximum temperatures were below normal over some parts of Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Minimum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 8 deg Celsius over many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and east Uttar Pradesh. This was attributed to the presence of moisture in the atmosphere and associated cloudiness.

The lowest minimum temperature of 4.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh for a second day on Friday.
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Temperature in Mumbai has dropped over the century, as contrary to other metros like Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai ..
Chennai - Heavy cloud formations will be there till 2pm. Local shot showers possible after 11.30am.
Early morning satellite shows the south and south-east Bay is getting ready with a feed from Easterlies ..
Warm & Moist Easterlies will be active over Tamilnadu coast from 21-Dec .. .. very active on 22-Dec-09.
Chennai - Not a cold morning 25.0°C (5:55am) ... signs of Warm & moist Easterlies moving in from Bay.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Easterlies 'll be more effective over central and south coastal Tamilnadu than for Chennai & North coast ..
There's 100% chance that the WET easterlies will set in over Tamilnadu coast on 21-Dec-09.
Is it going to be a WET christmas for Tamilnadu coast and Chennai ..??
Good easterlies starting from 21-Dec-09 .. .. more rains along with it ..
More showers expected for Chennai & TN coast from 21-Dec-09 ..
Chennai - Today morning it was cold at 20.4°C (5:37am) ... now 6:13pm its 26.6°C and reducing.
More showers from Bay starting on 21-Dec .. .. and on 22-Dec ..
A clear looking southern peninsula .. .. but more showers from Bay in 72hrs.
Chennai - A local short shower possible over south and south-western suburbs.
Will there be more NE monsoon showers after this ?? .. Keep tracking
Chennai - Clear skies now 9:08am, today morning's low temperature was 22.2°C (5:37am)
Satellite shows, Whole of peninsula is clearing and Heavy formation can be seen over South-east corner of Bay..

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Chennai - It's going to be a very cold night and will be very cold in morning of 18-Dec, temperature now 11:28pm IST is 22.8°C
Models predict that rain will continue after a 48hr break.. More easterlies on way for TN coast.
More rain for Tamilnadu till 30-Dec-09 and into Jan-2010.. ... Keep following
Intermittent heavy downpours have largely affected fishing activities along the Chennai-Kancheepuram,Tiruvallur coast..

Remnant ‘low' continues to rain over coastal TN

Tuesday's well-marked ‘low' over north Sri Lanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar has further weakened into a ‘low' and has persisted around the same region overnight on Wednesday.

A remnant of erstwhile tropical cyclone Ward that has mostly failed forecasts made by the best centres around the globe, the system threw up signals that it might retrace the very track it had trodden while making the first landfall over Sri Lanka.

Wet spell

This would take it careening north along the Tamil Nadu coast to sustain the wet spell up till Chennai before sliding into open Bay of Bengal, said a US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecast.

This spell could last until December 23, the NCEP precipitation model said on Wednesday.

It is also likely that the moisture-laden easterlies get acted upon by westerlies blowing into the peninsula.

This could cause the easterlies to drop some moisture over parts of internal peninsula as also the southern fringes of central India, the US forecaster said.

Going forward, it said that widespread light to moderate rains are likely to hang over parts of the peninsula, including the northern belt, during December 24 to January 1, as seasonal easterlies start to blow into the peninsula afresh.

Once again, the core area of weather panning out would be southeast Tamil Nadu-north Sri Lanka coasts from where the rains would get propagated north and west, according to the NCEP.

The prospect of fresh rains is being attributed to the arrival of a weather-boosting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the upper levels over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southern Indian peninsula.

Successful season

The wave would be active from December 22 to 29, according to the Jones MJO model tracker as also Coupled Linear Inverse model of the Earth System Research Laboratory of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

This would effectively mean that what has till now been a successful northeast monsoon (11 per cent surplus all-India as on December 9) would last until the very end (normally December 30).

But the Empirical Wave Propagation technique of the NCEP for tracking MJO movement is of the view that the benign phase (not very intense, though) might last until the last week of January, 2010. But this would bear watching.

An update from the Chennai Met Centre said on Wednesday that the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu and at a few places over Rayalaseema.

Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.


Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka.


A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Towards the north, maximum temperatures were above normal C over many parts of central and adjoining east India, north Andhra Pradesh and some parts of west western Himalayan India.

Minimum temperatures were appreciably above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and interior peninsular India.

Forecast by India Meteorological Department said that isolated rainfall activity is likely over Northeastern States.

Isolated rain or snow over western Himalayan region has been forecast during the next 24 hours. Isolated light rain or thundershowers are likely over central India.

Minimum temperatures are likely to fall over northwest India during the next two days with the passage of a prevailing western disturbance.

Another crack at "sset" - 50% deficient rain for Tamilnadu ??!!!

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ??":

Again I do not understand how this sset (a reader of is reporting 50% deficient. As per the latest data available Tamilnadu as a whole has received as much as 45cm rainfall for this season and it may be NORMAL[Positive side] rainfall. However there are few locations such as Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Vellore,Salem etc where the rainfall is DEFICIENT. Please refer Disaster Managment and Mitigation Department under Revenue Administration, Government of Tamilnadu site.(authentication required. What you give will lead to factual error.

- We think that it's TIME that Mr. Anonymous should come to Light and show him/herself -
Mercury dips in parts of north India ..
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Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 for Chennai & Tamilnadu ?? ..

Warm Air Advection near Chennai

Near 13 Degree latitude there is warm air advection. The Chennai DWR shows [161209/1200UTC] wind veering with height from lower-mid levels. This is may be warm air advection. This may lead to formation of clouds on and off Chennai coast. Lower level EAsterly or NE ly will bring them into Chennai. But lesser amount of precipitation

IMD has noted a RIDGE at 200 hPa level at 9 Degree North Latitude. It seems that the RIDGE had drifted further south to lay marked near Cape Comorin to day [17.12.2009 /0211 hrs IST]
One can expect some inclement weather, cloud formation over Kanyakumari both in Arabian Sea and Bay as the upper divergence above will induce lower level convergence at Cape Comorin sea area.
As expected the "Warm Air Advection" WAA gave light rainfall over on and off [Nellore to]Chennai coast some 1.5 hrs before

Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ??

After this Cyclone "Ward" and its Remnants... now What??
Winter ??
Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ?? - NO
COLA-GFS models suggests more and more weather on way for Tamilnadu coast starting from 21-Dec-09.
Take a look.

Latest MJO did not and will not favor for this WET predictions.

Rainfall data for 24hrs ending at 8:30 AM, 17-Dec-09

Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu and active over Rayalaseema.
Rainfall occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema and at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka. Dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep.
The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in centimetres.

Orathanadu and Vallam (both Thanjavur dt) 11 each, Alangudi (Pudukottai dt) 10, Parangipettai 9, Vedaranyam and Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt) 8 each and Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt), Aranthangi and Arimalam (both Pudukottai dt) and Cheyyar (Thiruvannamalai dt) 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Kanchipuram, Valangaiman and Kodavasal (both Thanjavur dt), Tondi and Ambasamuthiram (Thirunelveli dt) 6 each, Rapur (Nellore dt), Ongole, Maduranthagam (Kanchipuram dt), Adiramapattinam, Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Polur (Thiruvannamalai dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt) and Periyar Dam (Theni dt) 5 each, Chengalpattu (Kanchipuram dt), Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt), Cuddalore, Kallakurichi and Vanur (both Villupuram dt), Karaikal, Kumbakonam, Thiruvidaimaruthur, Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Mannargudi and Muthupet (both Thiruvarur dt), Sirkali and Tarangambadi (both Nagapattinam dt), Karambakudi (Pudukottai dt), Pudukottai, Chengam and Sathanur Dam (both Thiruvannamalai dt), Ambur and Vaniyambadi (both Vellore dt) and Tirupathur (Sivagangai dt) 4 each, Seetharamapuram, Vinjamur, Udayagiri and Atmakur (all Nellore dt), Nellore, Rayachoti, Rajampet and Pulivendala (all Cuddapah dt), Cheyyur and Uthiramerur (both Kanchipuram dt), Sethiyathope and Srimushnam (both Cuddalore dt), Gingee, Thirukoilur and Ulundurpet (all Villupuram dt), Puducherry Airport, Madukkur and Papanasam (both Thanjavur dt), Thanjavur, Nannilam and Needamangalam (both Thiruvarur dt), Thiruvarur, Kollidam and Mayiladuthurai (both Nagapattinam dt), Perungalur (Pudukottai dt), Manamelkudi, Manimutharu (Thirunelveli dt), Thiruvannamalai, Alangayam and Gudiyatham (both Vellore dt), Coonoor, Perambalur, Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Pullambadi (Thiruchirapalli dt), Karaikudi and Thiruppuvanam (both Sivagangai dt) 3 each and Kavali, Podili (Prakasam dt), Gudur (Nellore dt), Koilakuntala (Kurnool dt), Badvel (Cuddapah dt), Virudhachalam and Panruti (both Cuddalore dt), Villupuram, Thiruthuraipoondi (Thiruvarur dt), Gandarvakottai and Keeranur (both Pudukottai dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt), Arani (Thiruvannamalai dt), Arakonam and Melalathur (both Vellore dt), Tirupattur, Harur (Dharmapuri dt), Valparai, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Devakottai (Sivagangai dt), Sivagangai and Palani (Dindigul dt) 2 each and Darsi, Addanki and Cumbum (all Prakasam dt), Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt), Guntur, Satenapalli (Guntur dt), Vempalli, Lakkireddipalli, Kamalapuram and Prodattur (all Cuddapah dt), Tirupathi Airport, Owk and Srisailam (both Kurnool dt), Tiruvananthapuram Airport, M.M. Hills (Chamarajanagar dt), Pavagada (Tumkur dt), Sriperumpudur (Kanchipuram dt), Tambaram, Pallipattu, Ramakrishnarajupet, Poondi, Red Hills and Thamaraipakkam (all Thiruvallur dt), Tiruttani, Thiruvallur, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Sankarapuram and Tindivanam (both Villupuram dt), Grand Anaicut (Thanjavur dt), Nagapattinam, Illuppur (Pudukottai dt), Kadaladi and Thiruvadanai (both Ramanathapuram dt), Vilathikulam (Tuticorin dt), Vanthavasi (Thiruvannamalai dt), Sholingur and Walajahpet (both Vellore dt), Vellore, Pappireddipatty (Dharmapuri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram (Namakkal dt), Thammampatti (Salem dt), Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Lalgudi, Samayapuram and Thuraiyur (all Thiruchirapalli dt), Thiruchirapalli Airport, Thiruchirapalli, Chittampatti (Madurai dt), Periyakulam, Manamadurai (Sivagangai dt) and Kodaikanal 1 each.
90% of Tamilnadu is having high cloud cover today with NO rain , except some coastal zone along North TN ..
RT @amiya001: Chennai is chilling now....i am enjoying the rain
Chennai - Today at present we are experiencing the lowest DAY time temperature of this year-2009 .. 22.8°C , 3:02pm
Tamilnadu at it's very end of North-east Monsoon.. today's showers may be the LAST.
Chennai - After some mild showers from morning.. now we have just mild drizzles... Rainrate will go down rapidly towards evening. ... Only time window left for this system to regain strength is till 7pm IST today (17-Dec-09)
Last remnant of LOW pressure system is dying fast just south-east of Chennai ..
Chennai - a cold morning 22.1°C (6:13am) after a day without sunlight.
Chennai - All night had some mild steady drizzles, Very heavy showers forecast for Chennai as well ..
Very very heavy showers predicted along Pondicherry & North TN coast .. .. is now 8am IST along Pondicherry coast and North Tamilnadu coast.
LOW pressure system has moved north along Tamilnadu coast as predicted by COLA gfs ..

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

TN coast to experience another showery night ... ... except for Kanyakumari coast. No rain there yet!!
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COLA's latest run model also suggests very-very heavy showers for Chennai and North TN coast for 36 hrs.. ... Heavy rain activity along Gulf of Mannar and Northern tip of Srilanka.
Satellite at 5:30pm IST, shows Heavy showers along central, south-east coast of Tamilnadu ..
Chennai - Heavy cloud formation from East and south-east.
Chennai - Drizzling started now 6pm
NCMRWF - also predicts very heavy showers for north TN coast starting from evening of 16-Dec .. .. as of now the rain rate is bit subdued over north TN and south Andhra coast. Heavy rains in 24hrs for this zone
Satellite at 2:30pm IST, shows heavy downpour along central & south coastal Tamilnadu ..
Chennai - Heavy cloud formation has started over east... we'll in for more showers after 4pm.
At present the remnant of cyclone "ward" a LOW pressure system is along central TN coast ..
Chennai - 100% Will get very heavy showers, why?? how?? ..
Chennai - will get 100% very heavy showers soon ... watchout.. NO time fixed for this to happen. Nothing for next 1 hr.
Chennai - Schools declared holiday... but NO rain from midnight.
Schools in 10 districts (includes Chennai) along Tamilnadu's coastline has declared closed for today 16-Dec-09.

"96B" to "05B-Ward" and now LOW pressure system moving north-west

"96B" to "05B-Ward" and now a remnant of Cyclone "ward" just a LOW pressure system moving north-west towards Central & North Tamilnadu coast.
Cyclone "ward" tried to enter into Srilanka for 2 days and then re-emerged as a LOW pressure system along its north-east coast and then moved north-west. The LOW pressure system is located near Central Tamilnadu coast.

This kind of movement was predicted by COLA-GFS model on Saturday,12-Dec-09.
Now COLA predicts very heavy showers along central TN coast for next 24hrs and then the LOW pressure system moves north along the coast and very to very heavy showers predicted along North-TN coast in next 48 hrs.

Schools along these coastline has been declared closed for today 16-Dec-09.

Latest satellite shot at 8:30am IST::
Shows the LOW pressure system with heavy & huge cloud mass over Central TN