Thursday, November 15, 2012

#chennai - 9pm, is having 25 deg C with Dry & Cold breeze from North. Going to be another COLD morning. Same for most of N,central Tamilnadu.

"98B" now moving into N.Bay & an odd prediction!

7:30pm, "98B" now moving into N.Bay.
It has moved North in last 6hrs.
The circulation of the system is elongated from North-to-South, it is seen extending upto S.Andaman islands. 

If the system tracks further north.. Showers may soon push into Orissa coast, Bengal coast and Bangladesh coast.
Strong showers seen over N,central Andaman Islands.
Here's the latest position plot.
Latest NOGAPS model still predicts a strong circulation over S-central Bay popping out from this present system on 17-Nov.
Also NOGAPS maintains that the present system will linger in this same location for next 24 to 36hrs.
Odd prediction but have to wait and see!
So far this NOGAPS model has proved wrong in predicting this "98B".

Is it going to be a almost ZERO rain monsoon November for Tamilnadu & #chennai ?? We'll get a clearer view of scenario in next 3 days!
A moderate W.D is expected to reach W.Kashmir and Punjab in next 12hrs.

Due to W.D, Scattered rain / Snow expected over Kashmir, isolated rain over Punjab and into Himachal during next 3 days 
Dry weather expected for Tamilnadu & #chennai till 21-Nov ..! ... 

RT @asury: @weatherofindia "Bangalore mild wind has maintained temp around 22 degrees"  1:07pm

"98B" - continues to move N-N-E, Has reached point of NO return.

1:30pm latest...
"98B" - continues to move N-N-E and it has reached point of NO return.
Latest Satellite pic reveals that the system continues to be active.

Here's the latest position plot on map. 
Position is 13.5N & 91.1E

Along and above 13th parallel the 200hpa level Jet is from South West.. so this will steer the system to North or North-East from now on.
COLA model suggests that "98B" will not make landfall anywhere..!!
Instead it'll move North into Bay and then linger along in that zone till 20/21-Nov.
Importantly NO Rain for most of Tamilnadu till 22-Nov.
Some showers are expected over S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala during next 3 days.
#chennai - Having a DRY day now 12:30pm, Winds at medium level are from N-N-E and at upper levels its from West.
US NAVY locates the present Low over Bay "98B" at position almost parallel to #chennai at 12.1N and 91.1E...

11:30am, here's the latest convective activity around "98B".. very near to Andaman Islands ..

Still NOGAPS model predicts that "98B" will become a D.Depression and move West from today towards N.Tamilnadu,S.Andhra in next 3 days.

Here's the NOGAPS forecast for "98B" on morning of 18-Nov... 

So far this Bay LOW "98B" has defied almost ALL weather models... It has kept on moving N-E till today 5:30am.
#chennai - records a #WoW min. temp. of 19.5 deg C today morning.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.00am, Clear blue skies, Bright Sunshine, bitting cold with chill breeze. Ideal to roam around !!