Thursday, October 15, 2015

"Koppu" delaying NE monsoon

Today, weak easterlies seen upto S-E, E-central Bay.. and a easterly trough seen from central Bay to central Bengal ..
5pm, due to easterly trough, moderate rain seen over S Odisha, S Chatisgarh and N-E Andhra ...

Today, a weak circulation also seen over S-E Bay and another over S Arabian sea, which is moving West.
Present low-;level circulation over S-E Bay is expected to drift West for next 42hrs.. but ... when TS "Koppu" 9 (W-Pacific) makes landfall over N Philippines on 17-Oct.. winds from S,S-E Bay are diverted to that system.
This is the JTWC track forecast for TS - Koppu ... Landfall expected on 17-Oct !..

This chart shows how the winds from S,S-E Bay are expected to move towards "Koppu" from 17/18-Oct..

On 18-Oct, a weak low-level circulation expected over Indian ocean S,SW of Srilanka and drift west... so more rain for S Tamilnadu.
GFS expects that from 18-Oct to 22-Oct, the wind direction in S,S-E Bay will be Westerly not easterly ! ..
The NE Monsoon for Tamilnadu window is expected to open up after 24-Oct !

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs

Today, due to easterly trough... West,S-W suburb of #Chennai got a mini shower around  3,3:30pm.
An "odd" shower possible tomorrow as well !
Due to easterly trough, scattered moderate rain expected for S,central Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and NE Andhra..
More scattered T showers ahead for W-ghats,S Kerala, W-ghats,S Tamilnadu on 16-Oct.!

October 15, 2015 at 04:38PM

1:40pm, Dohnavur - heavy T shower from East. 1:50pm, heavy rain now. #weather

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