Friday, November 06, 2015

An UAC has formed in the Easterly trough, East off Sri Lanka. This is likely to strengthen and become a surface Low by Friday, and track towards the TN coast this weekend.
Rainfall will gradually increase from Sunday in TN. The coastal regions and Southern peninsula will see heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday.

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Saturday as the system nears the coastline. Very good thunder showers thru Sunday. Would expect around 100- 110 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning. Could be heavy in some areas of city.

The Well marked Low, or Depression, may cross the TN coast on sunday. Can possibily emerge in the Arabian Sea of Kerala.Could be supported by a current UAC around Lakshadweep Islands.
more about N-3 and N-4 in

Chapala aftermath and now Cyclone Megh.

Some hi-res images captured by NASA's satellite.
Taken from

Before Chapala...
After Chapala...

Rainfall estimate of that day.

And now a NEW threat is on way for Yemen, Socotra Island and this time Northern Somalia as well.

5pm, Cyclone Megh...
"Not intensified during past 12hrs"
"Tracked West"
"Showing sign of weakening"
Pressure.. 997mb .. 

GFS expects, Cyclone #Megh to weaken during next 48hrs, move West and touch Socotra Islands on Sunday as Depression ...
.. but JTWC expects a "touch-n-go" along Socotra Island on Sunday as a Cyclone itself ...