Saturday, December 10, 2016

December 10, 2016 at 11:16PM

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December 10, 2016 at 09:38PM

#vardah stays fit as severe cyclone. Now 85% chance of landfall near #Chennai as D.Depression on noon, 12-Dec. #weather

from Instagram

Vardah - Severe Cyclone ! Landfall can be South of Nellore !

11:30am, #vardah - Severe Cyclone.. and marching W, WNW ... Precipitation imagery also attached .. 

Severe cyclone #vardah is now "almost" parallel to #chennai latitude !
Present pos :  12.55N, 87.11E , pressure: 987mb ... 

Factors that are going to affect #vardah 's intensity ..
1. Shear towards Chennai coast is high.
2. Dry air slowly wrapping the system.

GFS, GEM, ECMWF are in sync with near #Chennai landfall as "cyclone" on 12-Dec ...
NAVGEM, HWRF models suggest a just above Nellore landfall as Cyclone on 12-Dec .
IMD & JTWC also taking this opinion ! ... 
#Vardah - landfall can be along Chennai to Kavali, Andhra.... 

#vardah - During landfall, intensity of the cyclone will be reduced due to DRY air and shear near coast ! 
#Vardah - DRY air is slowly wrapping the system.
In next 24 / 36 hrs, it'll try to wrap fully !!
If this happens, it'll lose intensity, rain ... 

VARDHA "Severe cyclonic storm" landfall over chennai

Cyclonic storm to severe cyclonic storm VARDAH: The cyclonic storm, VARDAH over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west­northwestwards in past 06 hrs with a speed of 7 kmph.

The system is very likely to move west­northwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to maintain its peak intensity upto evening of 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam around afternoon/evening of 12th December 2016. -IMD

When system starts weakening while nearing coast it would move WSW direction. Then Landfall going to be further south which will between Nellore and chennai or over chennai

Now Both ECMWF and GFS are almost in same statement on landfall track between Nellore to chennai.

Rains for chennai will be from late Sunday an better rains (Moderate to heavy) during Monday to Tuesday. No flooding rains.

Image 1: current view of VARDAH (Infrared)
Image 2, 3, 4 ,5 : GEFS track and GFS and  models shows system near chennai coast.
Image 6: Tropical cyclone intensity scale

#Chennai #Nellore

Cold weather across plains,WD approaching.

Delhi min:- 11.2°c
Rohtak:- 11°c 
Narnaul:- 8.3°c
Hisar:- 10°c
Cold & foggy weather to persists over plains where as a wd is expected to approach hills by Today evening/night due to which moderate snow likely over hills & induced cyclonic circulation over central pak and abjoining Rajasthan due to which light rains /thundershowers may seen over plains of North punjab, Haryana & Rajasthan. 
Cloudy weather may seen over the Delhi NCR region due to which min temp is expected to increase by very little notches but once the wd will clear away from the region the there will be sudden drop in min & max temp accross the plains & cold and dry NW winds blow over the region so, coldwave conditions may be witnessed over some parts thats how the intense winter will start over the region.

December 10, 2016 at 09:35AM

#vardah #wow latest visible shot. Massive #fog cover over haryana, Delhi, Uttarpradesh. #weather

from Instagram

December 10, 2016 at 07:31AM

6:30am, #vardah has intensified (987mb) and moved WNW. #Chennai is having a cold, high cloud #morning . #weather

from Instagram