Saturday, May 21, 2016

The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal in 2 phases. (June/July and August/September). 

Why in 2 phases ? Because, I believe it is impossible to give actual Quantum forecast now (In May) for sometime in September...that is 120 days ahead !). I am not competent to give a forecast 90 - 120 days in advance, so Monsoon forecast will be  
1)...For June and July and 
2)... August and September ..this is tentative and will be published in first week July.

A) First 15 days of June sees 
i) Monsoon advancing from Kerala thru upto Central India, and into NE States and West Bengal.
ii) Heat ( Normal to above Normal) in Northern India, and Pakistan. 
Monsoon advances into Central India and North India between 20th - 30th June. 
iii) Monsoon moves into Pakistan around 5th - 12th of July.

B) Mid June to July end, we can see normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of  Sub-Continent regions. Weak Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months could see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

Full Article in

May 21, 2016 at 09:46PM

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May 21, 2016 at 09:40PM

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The last of Cyclone Roanu

Cyclone #Roanu made landfall over SSE Bangladesh coast  at around 11am IST...

8:30pm, Remnant of #Roanu now lies over Southern states of  NE-states India as a Depression, "HEAVY" rain continues ..

Remnant of #Roanu is expected to fizzle out over Southern states of NE-states of India in next 18hrs...

.. and widespread HEAVY rain will persist in this zone for next 15hrs !
#Flood #Alert !

"Deaths as Cyclone Roanu pounds Bangladesh" ...
Cyclone #Roanu video from #Bangladesh ...

May 21, 2016 at 11:33AM

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May 21, 2016 at 09:55AM

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Roanu - Bangladesh, landfall in next 4 hrs

#Roanu - 8:30am, marching towards #Bangladesh coast for the kill. "Take cover" ...

#Roanu at present is a slightly intensified system with winds gusting to 105kmph, pressure at 982mb.

#Roanu landfall expected in next 4/5hrs near to Chittagong ...

9am, #Roanu Heavy convective activity seen around system, Rain pushing into South states of NE states India, Myanmar ..