Saturday, December 26, 2009

Goa, Bangalore and Chennai may be in for showers from 30-Dec and into New year's eve ..
South central and south west peninsula may be in for Showers around new ear's eve ..
ANALYSIS shows Already there's a low level circulation over south-east Bay, 5th parallel ..
And in coming days we'll witness more activity over south-east Bay and that too along 5th parallel ..
South & south-east Arabian sea is very active for the past 10 days.. Heavy cloud formation along the 5th parallel..
US technology to help India chase monsoon ..

A Puzzle Named `Ward`

Taken from "Jim Andrew's Blog ::", posted on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 11:31 AM

Looking back, Tropical Cyclone Ward was, from my recollection, a slow starter that took days to spin up within the ITCZ east of Sri Lanka. Ward then peaked late last week as a tropical cyclone east and northeast of Sri Lanka. As of Tuesday, Ward was downgraded to a tropical depression.

What is more, I recall that this weather system has been baffling numerical forecasts since well ahead of its naming. And it seems to still be doing so.

(I say all of this cautiously as I was in no way focused upon the weather in this area during the last week or so.)

Anyways, the JTWC have issued a `final warning` on Ward. However, satellite imagery as of Tuesday has shown a tropical weather system still being supported aloft by good radial outflow. And the GFS, rather than killing Ward over southern India, keeps its center right off the Tamil coast before veering it northeast to the open Bay of Bengal.

Something like this odd behavior could happen, I believe. Tropical cyclones are `reluctant` to make landfall at times when air over land is cooler and drier than that over water. Thus, owing to light steering winds, I see the possibility of some `fancy footwork` that would allow a persisting circulation center to drift northward and then northeastward during the next few days. I would not rule out Ward`s regaining storm status.

Thus far, rainfall linked to Ward has been about 18.8 cm at Karaikal, Tamil Nadu. I am not aware of high amounts on Sri Lanka, though I believe this to be likely.

Looking forward, I foresee heavy falls and flooding, in a localized way, along and near the Tamil coast to about Chennai. It looks as though the heaviest rains would shift slowly northward before either dissipating or, should Ward reemerge over the Bay, leaving for open water.
There's a 100% chance that a LOW pressure system forming over South-east corner of Bay ..
Arabian sea westerlies is seen pushing high clouds into central India as well ..
South-east Corner of Arabian sea over Maldives is still active for more than a week now ..
Easterlies still active along East Srilanka coast ..
Chennai - Morning low temperature was 23.6°C (7:03am)