Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Nilofar - "going down"

4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... 
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... 
Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. 

Weather Instagram at October 29, 2014 at 03:18PM

#chennai - 3pm, another dry day. Feels like early December. Stiff breeze from north. #weather

from Instagram

Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... 
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!

N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday ! 
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... 

NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... 
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! 
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. 

Nilofar - Will track N-E from now and weaken !

Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity) 

Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.

Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" intensifying Rapidly , a "CAT-4"cyclone