Sunday, March 28, 2010

Early & Good South-west Monsoon predicted for Kerala & West Tamilnadu

EL Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is an indicator of Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall 2010. On observing the general weather conditions prevailing in Tamilnadu, one has to presume that this time too SW monsoon in earlier May & June will be active over TN. Nor the Bay branch of the monsoon current will be prominent during onset at Kanyakumari (and) district or felt prominent just prior to on set. My colleagues working in TN Forest department expressed that the migration of wild animals like Panther and elephants into Eastern slopes of western ghats is an indicator that TN will get relatively more rainfall during 2010 early SW monsoon period. They further quoted that even reptiles have migrated down slope fearing big forest fires in the upper reaches of western ghat in Theni & Coimbatore districts. [owing to descending air from High pressure. We will hope and optimistic that rain God will be favorable for TN during 2010 SWM period.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous
Some of these Nor'wester storms reach tornadic violence and cause considerable damage to property
Nor'wester is always associated with a violent thunderstorm
What is ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' ?? They occur mostly during the transition period from winter... http://bit.ly/akLZaN
From monday the N-westerly would in effect trigger the full-fledged onset of ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' in the region
Rains would become more widespread from Monday as a fresh western disturbance parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.
North-eastern States have started getting seasonal showers as prevailing westerlies and a heated-up land combined to breed thunderstorms
Chennai - Temp. now 10:47am is already 34.3°C.. it'll touch a max of 36 before the Sea breeze from East sets in.
Isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C over east India during next 1-2 days.
Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C over east India during next 1-2 days.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from tommorrow.
western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away northeastwards
On 27-Mar, maximum temperature of 42.0°C and above are recorded at following stations: Varanasi-42.4, Daltonganj-42.3 and Akola-42.0°C

Fresh westerly may breed more thunderstorms over east

The north-eastern States have started getting seasonal showers as prevailing westerlies and a heated-up land combined to breed thunderstorms over the region.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the 24 hours ending Friday morning saw rainfall of varying intensity over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

MORE WIDESPREAD

The rains would become more widespread from Monday as a fresh western disturbance parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir moves into the region.

This would in effect trigger the full-fledged onset of ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' in the region. These storms usually approach a station from the northwest (and hence called the name) bursting forth suddenly with great fury.

They occur mostly during the transition period from winter to the rainy season when two different air masses, west to northwest winds of land origin and moist winds from the Bay of Bengal, set up a rendezvous over the region. The storms are more frequent in the late afternoon, although known to occur also at other times of the day.

DAMAGE POTENTIAL

A Nor'wester is always associated with a thundershower, and the precursory signs of its approach are the same as those of a violent thunderstorm. Some of these storms reach tornadic violence and cause considerable damage to property and sometimes even loss of life.

The region is already witnessing moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal. The western disturbance itself is likely to affect the west Himalayan over the next five days. The moisture incursion would continue for as many days, the IMD said.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, east and adjoining central India, the Northeastern States and south Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, an agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said that rise in mercury could test the health of the wheat crop. The crop has reached grain formation stage in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Madhya Pradesh where temperature has crossed the 36 deg Celsius-mark.

IRRIGATION NEEDED

Other standing crops in the region too are susceptible to impact in this manner, which calls for light and frequent irrigation, the advisory said. In view of prevailing dry weather condition along with persisting high temperatures, farmers in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, interior Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal are advised to apply light and frequent irrigation to the crops to meet excess evaporative demands.


The IMD said in its weather update on Friday that heat wave conditions were prevailing over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and isolated pockets of Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Orissa and Himachal Pradesh.

The highest maximum temperature of 42.7 deg Celsius was recorded at Daltonganj Jharkhand during the last 24 hours ending in the morning.

Maximum temperatures were at 40 deg Celsius or above over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Orissa, Telengana and interior Maharashtra.

Forecast for the next two days said that isolated rain or thundershowers accompanied by thundersquall may occur over Orissa and Chhattisgarh as well. Isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thundersquall may also occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during this period. Isolated to scattered rain or snow would occur over the west Himalayan region. Heat wave conditions may continue over southeast Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar over the next 24hours.
http://ping.fm/0csWT ... South extreme Tamilnadu and Kerala is having clear start to the Day and this will change after 2 pm.
RT @flsblog: What is Earth Hour India 2010? What things to do during Earth Hour - Read full news at http://ping.fm/dheBb
North-east states getting very heavy showers overnight into Morning of today .. http://ping.fm/iFAGZ