Sunday, June 20, 2010

The heat is back in the Sub-Continent ! 
"Vagaries of the Weather" mentions today (afternoon write up) of the possibility of a heat wave returning to the region. But before "the ink could dry",we have it on us !
Today's highest in Asia reading returns back to Pakistan, with Larkana and Sibi notching 51c.Followed by 50c at Al Ahsa Airport in Saudi Arabia.
Bhawalnagar(Pakistan) was next with 49c
In India, it was Ganganagar as usual with a high of 48.1c.(Information from smaller towns not yet in). 

Delhi airport has jumped to 46.7c today.The list of 47s and 46s are long, so putting up a map of the highs today would be better.
Monday could see higher temperatures in the region...

On Sunday, Mumbai had a high of 32.2c at Colaba and 32.6c at S'Cruz, with 2.2 mms of rain (Colaba) and 9.4 mms at S'Cruz. (Prediction for Sunday in this blog was 32c and 15mms of rain.)

Rainfall characteristics of Kerala

Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10.N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10.N (south Kerala). Group I stations (table 2) receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II (table 3) receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. Group III stations (table 4) with IIIrd factor as the primary loading, i.e., IIIrd factor greater than Ist and IInd factor.
The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study

Abstract of Heaviest Rainfall places in Kerala
Neriamangalam 451 cm
Kutiyadi 416
Vythiri 396
Peermade 392
Ponmudi 391
Quilandi 379
Kasargod 355
Hosdurg 351
Karikode 349
Munnar 346
Vellor 345
Irikkur 345

There is a lack of direct relationship between the height of a station and its rainfall from this study. The spatial variability of mean annual precipitation depends upon the topographic factors like exposure of the station to the prevailing wind, elevation, orientation, and slope of the mountain.The study is, however, limited to the number of rainfall stations available and a better network of stations in the region will reflect more local-scale phenomena. The results are useful for mesoscale and synoptic scale atmospheric modelling.

More Rainfall data & the detail study can be found in
The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists. The Upper Air cyclonic circulation (UAC) over eastern Arabian sea and adjoining Maharashtra-Goa coast persists and now is at lowers levels.
For the west coast of India, this is the trough we have been observing. The embedded UAC which was expected to form off Mumbai, and now going by our estimate, should strenghten to some extent, and cross the coast south of Mumbai by Tuesday evening.
Resultantly, the entire west coast North of Karnataka (included) should get enhanced rainfall from Tuesday thru Friday. The brunt of very heavy rains, on Wednesday/Thursday will be taken by the Konkan region and the adjoining western ghat stations.
I do not expect the UAC to go to great strenghts, but still could pour some extreme rainfall of +250 mms on Wednesday/Thursday in extreme cases along the Konkan coast or ghat stations.
The rain spell will be restricted mainly along the coast, and may not venture much into the interior of the peninsula regions. The much needed parched regions of interior Maharashtra and adjoining Karnataka, M.P.will get scanty rainfall, in pockets, during the week, not exceeding 10-15mms /day.Vidharbh could get some good rain on Wednesday.

The push into Gujarat will be after Wednesday. From then we see the rain areas pushing into Saurastra, with rain in almost all the regions of Saurashtra from Wednesday thru the week.
But the Monsoon throughout this week, till the 25th. at least, will refuse to move further.On 22nd,It will just about enter Gujarat region, barring the Northern Kutch and adjoining Rajasthan region. 
Till the 25th, it will remain stationary in the eastern sector, without moving towards east U.P. That's the gateway to the Northern plains including Delhi. No formation of any low is seen in the head bay till the 25th, which makes me conclude the stationary monsoon prediction in this sector.Even the 200 hpa jet streams do not "fall in place" before that.
That translates to a continuation of the heat wave in Rajasthan, Punjab/Haryana and delhi.With a mainly clear sky, the maximum temperature would hover at around 44c in Delhi. And the desert state could see 47/48c next few days.On saturday, Phalodi in Rajasthan sizzled at 46.5c and Kota registered 46.3c.

Mumbai: Well, we had our hot day on Sunday,with just about 5 mms of rain. Expect some passing showers on Monday, rainfall upto 15 mms.
Tuesday will be overcast, and by evening,   an increase in rainfall can be expected. 
Wednesday thru Friday, will be days of heavy rains, with flooding in vulnerable areas. Rains on Wednesday could be around 50mms, And 80-100mms on Thursday/Friday.

The trough of low at mean sea level passes through Churu, Gwalior, Rewa, Gaya, Asansol, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

Now,something has got me thinking.The forecast prediction for this trough is a bit confusing. IMD's GFS maps show this monsoon trough, along the Northern plains,dropping pressure to 994 mb, with a core of 992 mb, by the 24th. Frankly, if that were to happen,I would fear a Break Monsoon condition. Now that's quite scary ! A Break Monsoon is the last thing we need now!I am not predicting this,I am just putting up my point of view. It may not happen, and I hope not, but a low trough of 992 mb in the East-West axis is certainly not the ideal situation during, or even before the monsoon has set in !
US Navy has quit tracking of "98A" west of Mumbai over Arabian sea. Till early hrs of today it was tracking it..!
RT @RainQcom: 10 killed in landslide due to heavy rain in western India ..
RT @Deepraj46: Nice wather in Goa enjoying the season (3:51pm)
RT @Bgiridharr: Surprisingly warm and sunny in mangalore today, Heard was raining cats and dogs most of this last week.
RT @vivekmadan: Tourist spots in Karnataka: *AGUMBE*
.. ....
RT @prathikm: its a hot mor here in kerala (pallakad), no sign of rain at al.. (11:02am)
Monsoon Driving Tips by Skoda Auto India ...
2:30pm, Thunder showers over S. & S-E. Madhyapradesh, Along Jaharkand & Bihar border, N. Bengal & N. Bangladesh..
2:30pm, Showers over S. central Tamilnadu...
2:30pm, Good monsoon showers along S-W coastal Maharastra, and ALL along coastal Karnataka...
RT @piyush_veere: @weatherofindia - Bihar is still clue of monsoon till now. :(
FULL.. Rainfall data of 18-Jun... PDF..
Cherrapunji :: rains, rains and more rain make innumerable water falls ... VIDEO..
Monsoon Wait prolonged as monsoon gets stuck near UP border‎ ...
Monsoon three days late in covering half of India‎ ...
Tannery waste to help make all-weather roads ...
Monsoons in Bengaluru :: Smell that rain?...
98A - Current Location - 19.7N and 71.4E - It has moved north,its expected to strengthen and move eastwards towards Mumbai according to GFS.
GFS... very heavy showers forecast for Mumbai and N-W coastal Maharastra on 22-Jun, Tuesday...
Chennai - Having a 10% cloudy day with temp. rising and moderate humidity .. temp. now 10:49 is 34.2°C and rising. May touch 37/38 deg C
Monsoon will pick steam along west coast and over North Bay from 23/24-Jun...
"98A" still persists west of Maharastra coast and it'll produce heavy showers for Maha coast and Mumbai from 21-Jun..
After a week of heavy activity over Central and North Bay.. today its calm and from 23-Jun, central Bay will be active as well as West coast
9:30am, Early morning Heavy showers over N.Central, E. Karnataka, N.central, N.coastal and N-E Andhra...
9:30am, Entire west coast is having a weak monsoon current now ..
Yesterday's "98A" .. is subdued today (20-Jun) ...
RT @EcoSeed: Radio cables help in nanotech solar power efficiency nanotechnology solarpower
Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 19-Jun-2010 ...
RT @myviews4life: ‘Plant two saplings in front of shops’: Collector instructs PDS shop salesmen in Dharmapuri..
98A formed at 72.5E and 17.5N. Expected to stay embedded in trough and move west as estimated today morning.

Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 19-Jun-2010

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 19.6.10

Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 681 cm
Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 207 cm

Silchar (Assam) - 204 cm

North Lakhimpur (Assam) - 165 cm

Gangtok (Sikkim) - 152 cm

Itanagar (Arunachal Pradesh) - 150 cm

Dhubri (Assam) - 148 cm

Dibrugarh (Assam) - 142 cm

Vadakara (Kerala) 134 cm

Piravom (Kerala) – 130 cm

Coochbehar (West engal) - 124 cm

Lengpui (Mizoram) - 115 cm

Guwahati (Assam) - 113 cm

Kottayam (Kerala) - 110 cm

Kochi (Kerala) - 108 cm

Agartala (Tripura) - 107 cm

Tezpur (Assam) - 106 cm

Jalpaiguri (West Bengal) - 105 cm

Subramanya (Karnataka) - 105 cm

Kozhikode (Kerala) - 103 cm

Tamil Nadu toppers from 1.1.10 to 19.6.10

Valparai (Coimbatore dt) – 87 cm

Chinna Kallar (Coimbatore dt) - 77 cm

Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) – 72 cm

Devala (Nilgiris dt) – 69 cm

Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 58 cm

Kodaikanal (Dindigul dt) – 45 cm

Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 43 cm

Thalli (Krishnagiri dt) – 43 cm

Boothapandi (Kanyakumari dt) – 38 cm

Gudalur Bazaar (Nilgiris dt) - 38 cm

Ketti (Nilgiris dt) – 36 cm