"Bijli" then and now (videos)

THEN

NOW

Latest on cyclone "Bijli"

"bijli" now has got even more stronger after 4 PM India time. During Noon india time, the core does seem to disintegrate and then in evening it started to pickup again.

Here is the latest warning from JTWC. It has predicted that the Cyclone will intesify slightly and skim along the indian coast and make landfall near Myanmar and Bangladesh coast. But keep it crossed, this system might disintegrate near Orissa coast OR eventually make landfall into Orissa itself.

POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET

"Green Tropical cyclone alert" - from GDACS.org

Analysis based on advisory number 6 for BIJLI-09, published on 4/16/2009 06:00 UTC

• The storm is: active
• Current postion: 86.09, 17.39
• Basin: NorthIndian
• Current strength: Tropical Storm
• Current maximum sustained wind speed: 23 m/s, 45 kt

Event time line

Date and time (forecasted in italic, current between red lines)	15/4 18h	16/4 0h	16/4 6h	16/4 18h	17/4 6h	17/4 18h	18/4 6h
Advisory number	4	5	6
Wind speed	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS
Population in cyclone Category I (thousand)
Population in tropical storm (million)						½
Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand)
Risk of wind damage
Affected cities

Heat is UP !!!

Taken from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com

It is hot, with few exceptions, throughout the Subcontinent in South Asia. Witness three-straight days of 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Mumbai-Santa Cruz (ended Sunday). And today, Monday, Akola, eastern Maharashtra, reached 111 degrees F/43.8 degrees C.

Normal temperatures over the Subcontinent as a whole are very high and still climbing by the day. It will top out somewhere between late April and late June, depending upon location, with heat in the south topping out first. In this light, that it has become hot is no revelation. Yet, over a wide area, this heat has become strong sooner than usual.

--Looking forward, there is little reason for a big shift in overall heat over the Subcontinent through at least this week. The subtropical Westerlies have nearly left the area south of the Himalaya and Hindu Kush allowing subtropical high pressure aloft to dominate. True, there will ripple eastward over the Subcontinent during this week of a weak short-wave trough in the Westerlies ("Western Disturbance").

By their nature, such waves have relatively cool air in their core, so slight trimming and reshuffling of the heat will happen. Maybe, the west will "cool" (by a few degrees C) first as the core of the highest heat shifts to the east. This would be followed by a slight cooling in the east as a new hot core sets up over the west.

--I have been asked what the heat means with respect to SW Monsoon onset. Short answer: I do not know. I have not studied the mechanics of the SW Monsoon any more than in a superficial way. There is a school of thought that says that relatively strong heating ahead of the SW Monsoon may bring it on early. Maybe so.

"01B" is now "Bijli"

Yesterday morning's cyclone "01B" has been named as Cyclone "Bijli".... nice name.

For the last 24 hrs it's moving rapidly in a North-west direction and now it's very close to Orissa.

Still JTWC and other GFS models suggest a "skimming of the coast"... and might get inland over Bangladesh.

Latest satellite pic shows that it's almost touching southern Orissa & northern Andhra coast and still the head is big....and there's lot of signs over northern Bay suggesting that "Bijli" will trace the JTWC path prediction.

Here is the JTWC path prediction and warning text.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 0046Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. THE NOGAPS
MODEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC
HELPING INDUCE A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF
THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS. GFS AND
EGRR CONTINUE TO HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO
NOT FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FAVORING NOGAPS AND ECMWF DUE TO
THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAVOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO 60
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS
13 FEET

"01B" heading towards Orissa

At present "01B" is mild in strength and heading towards Orissa coast.

Latest satellite shot shows HUGE mass of swirling cloud near Orissa and it's covering almost full of Northern bay.

Here is the warning text and graphic from JTWC

POSITION NEAR 14.9N 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150159Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH BROKEN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT
TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
142345Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 35KT WINDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND THE LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER ASIA MINOR. AFTER
TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA THAT WILL HELP TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. FORECASTED TRACK IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT
OF OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH EGRR BEING THE ONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POSITION
IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG,
BUT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS STARTING TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE SINGLE
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE FORECAST INTENSIFIES
TC 01B SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OBJECTIVE AIDS THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.

"94B" is now "01B"

"94B" is now cyclone "01B", this is the first cyclone of the year 2009.

Here is the latest tracking from JTWC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 142007Z AMSU-B
PASS INDICATE THAT INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01B HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM A QUASI-
STATIONARY POSITION AND IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA HAVE CAUSED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER IN THE LAST 06 HOURS THE INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF TC 01B HAS
BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT INFLUENCE AND WILL HELP TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TURNS IT MORE NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND WILL HINDER OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL, LEAVING ONLY THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON THE
SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE
FORECAST INTENSIFIES TC 01B AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48
WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES BEYOND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141121Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 141130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET.

Here is the latest satellite pic from www.weatheronline.co.uk

Here is the latest GFS from BBC , like all GFS models this also shows the same "01B dying out in open seas" before friday (17-Apr-09)

"94B" parallel to Chennai

From morning we are tracking "94B"... thru the day, the system gathered moisture and wind. Now (10:20pm,14-Apr-09) it's a potential Cyclone.

Take a look at the latest and some sequence of satellite pics taken from Morning of 14-Apr-09

.

and here is the latest...

Now JTWC is tracking it as "Tropical cyclone formation Alert".

Here is the report and prediction graphic...

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
225 NM RADIUS OF 12.7N 87.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 140010Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 140001Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THAT PROVIDS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD

Latest GFS models suggests that the "would be cyclone" will move away from Southern Mainland and will eventually die out over the sea.

Take a look at the 72hr prediction till 17-Apr-09.

And GFS also suggests that under it's influence the coastal regions along Andhra and North-Tamilnadu might get showers ... this is due to increase in Total Percipitable water along the coast.

Cyclone potential "94B"

Chennai:

Warm at 34 deg and with 60% humidity.

Now(9:13AM) it's warm and with high cloud cover around.

Looking at the latest satellite pic

"94B" has grown in strength during the past 24 hrs.

FNMOC is tracking it from the begining, 2 days ago.

Here's the report & forecast from JTWC...:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 87.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 131335Z SSMIS AND A 131526Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATE WEAK
BANDING TOWARD THE LLCC WITH MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AXIS, BUT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
POOR.
JTWC doesn't put it as a threat to land as of now.

The latest 48hrs GFS prediction by FNMOC shows

"94B" will head north into Bay and weaken. And some showers forecast for us after 72hrs.

We'll keep monitoring it, thru the day.

You can follow our tweets for more thru the day

http://twitter.com/rakeshngl

Yesterday's visible satellite shot

Yesterday's visible satellite shot, shows a lot of activities almost FULL of Tamilnadu and Kerela and over Bay, South Indian Ocean and South Arabian sea.