Thursday, April 16, 2009

"01B" is now "Bijli"

Yesterday morning's cyclone "01B" has been named as Cyclone "Bijli".... nice name.

For the last 24 hrs it's moving rapidly in a North-west direction and now it's very close to Orissa.

Still JTWC and other GFS models suggest a "skimming of the coast"... and might get inland over Bangladesh.

Latest satellite pic shows that it's almost touching southern Orissa & northern Andhra coast and still the head is big....and there's lot of signs over northern Bay suggesting that "Bijli" will trace the JTWC path prediction.

Here is the JTWC path prediction and warning text.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 0046Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. THE NOGAPS
MODEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC
HELPING INDUCE A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF
THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS. GFS AND
EGRR CONTINUE TO HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO
NOT FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FAVORING NOGAPS AND ECMWF DUE TO
THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAVOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO 60
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS
13 FEET

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