Be optimistic upon SWM July RF

 Many of the private weather channels are skeptic about SWM 2014 [JULY] rainfall.  It has been ascertained by the [official] national weather  channels that the chances of revival of SWM rainfall in July is NOT that much alarming.  [China Meteorological Administration & IMD]

Usually in India National Weather Administration is NOT responsible for declaring DROUGHT of course in agricultural preview.  .  

The position and strength of TIBETIAN HIGH [warm] is to play important role in deciding monsoonal rains in NW / Central / and East India up to Nellore.

*** Tibetian High is situated at about 5000 meter above mean sea level.  This portion of earth is a barren land at 5000m height forming a plateau of length 2000 km to 700km width.  A third pole indeed..***** 

This is playing a key role in determining Indian SWM & NEM.

Moreover the Mascarene High is also positioning with good strength but no Low Level Jet strength wind is blowing in Arabian Sea.

However every one is optimistic. 



 

It's time IMD should snap out of denial and officially acknowledge the reality of drought

The very fact that the IMD has to keep on reiterating every day that it may be too early to panic suggest that the spectre of drought is increasing as a strong probability, if not prevailing already. 

While there is much merit to IMD’s argument that the seasonal rainfall may in the end turn out not very far from their revised forecast of 93% of LPA, with July-Sept making up for the June deficiency, even so, there is every reason already to panic, at least on the agricultural front. 

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/its-time-imd-should-snap-out-of-denial.html

Neoguri: Strongest Pacific storm for the year with wind speeds upto 290 kph to flatten Okinawa late tonight

Okinawa will likely see the worst impact from the storm Monday night with rainfall rates of 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times, sustained winds as high as 225 kph (140 mph) with occasional gusts of 290 kph (180 mph),"

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/neoguri-strongest-pacific-storm-for.html

Weather Instagram at July 06, 2014 at 06:58PM

#chennai - 6:48pm, was bright, clear and hot all day. No sign of rain. Is that a kingfisher? Photo at 1pm. #weather

from Instagram

Today, the E-central India circulation is seen over E-central Uttarpradesh... http://ow.ly/i/68Hpt 
E-central UP circulation may not push further. 
Expected to vanish almost in same zone in next 36hrs.

The next N Bay circulation is expected to pop on 10/11-Jul ... http://ow.ly/i/68HsM 
The #Monsoon along W,S-W coast is expected to become ACTIVE from 10-Jul !! and persist till 16-Jul.
Monsoon is expected to get active again along most of Maharastra coast, #Mumbai from 9/10-Jul !!

A mid-level circulation seen over S Andhra near to #Chennai ... expected to persist another 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/68H7P 
From tomorrow to 8-Jul, a mid-level trough is expected along S-E coast from S Bengal coast to N,N-central Tamilnadu http://ow.ly/i/68Hak 

Today before midnight, T showers expected over N-E,E,S-E Karnataka, S,central Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/68Hg6 
Scattered HEAVY t showers expected over central,N-E ANdhra and into S Odisha, S Chatisgarh in next 12hrs.

Today, T showers expected over W,S-W,N-W suburbs of #Chennai before midnight !
And
More T showers on evening of 7-Jul as well.

Today, Monday - #Bangalore can also expect scattered showers during evening, late-evening.

In Some zones it can be heavy!

Today, a weak upper-level circulation seen along S Karnataka coast and N Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/68GYf 
And this upper-level circulation is expected to persist along N Kerala during next 24 hrs.!

HEAVY widespread rain expected to persist along s,central Karnataka coast, N,central-coast Kerala for 2 days http://ow.ly/i/68H37 

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 12.00pm, Overcast sky, windy, cool...ideal BLR kind of weather..sprinking showers yesterday eve / night. 

RT @OldSailor: @weatherofindia #Coimbatore Getting ready for showers http://t.co/bBc05D0fcF (2:05pm)

3:30pm, Due to circulation over Central Uttarpradesh.. heavy rain witnessed ... http://ow.ly/i/68GHm 
3:30pm, T showers also over Bihar, N,central Bengal, Jharkhand, central,N Odisha, N-E Madhyapradesh, Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/68GHm
3:30pm, T showers popping over central Andhra, N-E Karnataka and scattered showers along entire Karnataka coast ... http://ow.ly/i/68GHm

Revival of Monsoon now rests on hope of cyclone developing in NW Bay of Bengal 3rd week July

International models predict a fair probability of a fresh low emerging in North-West Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 3rd week of July. If one emerges, rainfall may pickup in the country. But the cavaet is that there is also a potential cyclone expected to develop in South India Ocean near Diego Garcia around the same time that might torpodeo this likely BoB low formation!!! On the face of it, July looks a wash out like June in terms of the monsoon vigour.

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/revival-of-monsoon-now-rests-on-hope-of.html

Pacific Typhoon Neoguri stalls the Monsoon: Modi Sarkar has now little option but to declare a national disaster emergency

Typhoon Neoguri has very rapidly strengthened to Category 4 (Very Severe Cyclone) and expected to hit Category 5 (super Cyclone) strength by tomorrow or latest by Tuesday as it moves through the waters of North-Western Pacific Ocean.  This transition to Category 5 is aided by the fact that it is already a very well defined storm and further tracks very warm ocean waters having low wind shear.

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/07/pacific-typhoon-neoguri-stalls-monsoon.html