"92B" - Slowly grouping now, Expected to move N-N-W from 11-May

Latest position of "92 B" is 5.8 N , 86 E.

The system is expected to persist without intensifying over South Bay for next 2 days !
COLA, IMD and NOGAPS models expects that the system will start intensifying from 10-May over S-S-E Bay.

According to COLA, From 11-May, the system is expected to be a Depression and expects to track in N-N-W direction into Bay.

While NOGAPS model suggests that the system will attain Depression strength on 11-May over S-S-E Bay and then track N-N-W and then move N-E.

The system is expected to track towards Myanmar or Bangladesh ! and this is good for Bay wing of South West Monsoon.

By 13-May-2013, the South West Monsoon is expected to reach Southern Andaman Islands.

Today as well the North South trough from E.Uttarpradesh to S.Tamilnadu persists ... http://ow.ly/i/23L41 

And low level circulation over Northern N-E states persists ... http://ow.ly/i/23L7L 

T.showers to continue over most of Kerala and S-W Karnataka during next 2 days, even as the 92B intensifies ... http://ow.ly/i/23Lkf 

From tomorrow and on 9-May, Some T.showers also expected over S,S-W Karnataka and over N-W Tamilnadu as well ... http://ow.ly/i/23LoR 

Almost NO T.showers expected for central, E.central India .. except for showers over N,central,E. Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/23Lxj 

As the circulation over N-E states persists, the zone is expected to get more scattered T.showers for next 4 days.. http://ow.ly/i/23LCI 

10:30pm, T.showers seen over North, central W-Ghats of Kerala and over N-W Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/23KBV 

10:30pm, Isolated T.shower seen over S.Bengal and over central N-E states. Lots of convective activity seen over 92B http://ow.ly/i/23KBV

Tamilnadu Today, #Chennai recorded a max temp of 36.6 C, while Thiruchirapalli and Vellore recorded 40.3 C.

Synoptic Situation and Outlook for next 4 Days...8th May - 11th May

Low BB-1, now formed as a weak Low, is off the SE coast of Sri Lanka, and is situated at 6N and 87E as on Tuesday evening.
Now, this is expected to deepen, to 999 mb, and reach depression strength by the 10th/11th. However, BB-1 will not travel much in the next 3 days, and develop further almost in a stationary position till 10th.
After the 11th, it is likely to track North initially and then curve slightly towrads the N/NE.
SWM moves into the South Andaman Seas, after 12th, as soon as BB-1 starts tracking...

Other weather on vagaries

"91B" and "92B" - Two circulations !!

According to NRL,

"91 B" is now located over 7.4 N , 74.3 E.

"92 B" is Fresh and located over 5.5 N , 87.9 E

Latest analysis show that the circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf mannar, S-E corner Arabian sea).

8pm, Satellite IR shows TWO circulations and its cloud activities...

Latest COLA model suggests a Depression over S. Bay on 10-May, and expects the system to move N-W after that.

IMD GFS model suggests almost the same, but after that it expects the system to move North into Bay.

All together a different track is projected by NOGAPS model. A depression is expected to form just S-E of Srilanka on 10-May and drift into Srilanka and then into Gulf Mannar in subsequent days. This is highly unlikely.

7pm, Going by the latest Satellite shot, still the Bay circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar)

Today, a weak low level circulation is seen along E.Uttarpradesh and Bihar, it's trough can be seen upto S-W Karnataka http://ow.ly/i/234LP 

And a weak circulation over North N-E states still persists !

The North South trough from Bihar, E.Uttarpradesh is expected to persist for another 2 days ...  http://ow.ly/i/235cW 

In next 2 days, T.showers to continue for most of Kerala, S,W.Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/235W6 

Some T.showers also expected over S,N,N-E Karnataka and into N,N-W Andhra till Wednesday... http://ow.ly/i/235W6

Heavy T.showers to continue for N, central, S-E Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/2369S 

Scattered Heavy T.showers to continue over most of N-E states and Sikkim ... http://ow.ly/i/236fi 

7:50pm, Kolkata airport is reporting "Rain with Thunderstorm" 

7pm, Massive T.showers seen over S,central Kerala, W.Tamilnadu, S-W Karnataka, E.Maharastra, N-W Andhra, N-E Odisha http://ow.ly/i/2346a 

7pm, Massive T.showers also seen over S,S-W,central Bengal as well ... http://ow.ly/i/2346a

Monsoon Watch - 4 2013 Quantum Analysis, Part -1.....Full Note on Vagaries...

#Chennai - Yesterday max = 37.7 C. Today from 11am its cloudy with a thin high cloud cover, temp at 3:40pm = 33 C with Sea breeze from E-S-E

Yesterday, #HOT S.Peninsula ... Nizamabad, Kadappa and Gulbarga recorded the highest maximum temperature of 43 C

RT @aknarendranath: Cyclonic churn over Bay put under close watch - Business Line http://t.co/NqeIhps49M @weatherofindia 

RT @bumblme: Monday 3:00 PM: and it is 42°C / 108°F in #Hyderabad @weatherofindia 

3pm, reports of Heavy T.shower over S.tip Tamilnadu ... #Nagercoil

2:30pm, Heavy T.shower seen over S.tip Tamilnadu and over Gulf Mannar ... http://ow.ly/i/22Y92 

3:30pm, T.showers seen over S.Jharkand, N-E Chatisgarh and into S-W Bengal .. T.cells popping over Odisha, N-E Andhra http://ow.ly/i/22Yb1 

#HOT at 3:30pm, Nagpur airport = 47 C, Hyderabad = 43 C, Ahmedabad = 42 C, Delhi = 40 C, Lucknow = 37 C, Kolkata = 34 C, Bangalore = 33 C.