June 17, Delhiites woke up to pleasant weather for the second consecutive day Wednesday with the met office forecasting a cloudy sky towards the evening.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the capital recorded a minimum temperature of 26.4 degrees Celsius, three degrees below normal, Wednesday morning. The maximum temperature recorded Tuesday was 36.9 degrees.
“Delhi will experience a pleasant day with clear sky in the morning. We expect to see some cloud cover towards the evening. The pleasant weather condition will continue at least till Friday evening,” an IMD official said.
The official said western disturbances over Rajasthan are the harbinger of the pleasant mornings in Delhi. The maximum temperature is expected to hover around 39 degrees Celsius Wednesday.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Drought May Hurt Crops in China, India
Drought may damage crops in China, India, Australia and the southern U.S. this year as elevated Pacific Ocean surface temperatures produce an El Nino effect, said Drew Lerner, the president of World Weather Inc.
Water temperatures are rising in the central and eastern Pacific, Lerner said. As a result, warm, dry weather will occur from July through September, Lerner said today at an agricultural-investment conference in Chicago.
“The past few months, we’ve been in a warming trend,” Lerner said. “The warm pocket in the Pacific has warmed another quarter-degree. This El Nino is coming on fast and it’s coming on furious, and it will have an impact on world weather.”
Parts of the southern U.S. from Texas to Florida will get less than the normal amount of rain in the next three months, Lerner said. Excessive rainfall and cooler temperatures will help plants in the U.S. Midwest, including Iowa and Illinois, he said. Wet weather delayed planting of crops in both states, which are the largest U.S. producers of corn and soybeans.
“This is good for crops that were planted late,” said Lerner, whose weather forecasting company is based in Kansas City. “We’re going to dry out in the autumn. So people might be surprised by how well the crops do, despite being planted late.”
Rainfall in India will decline during the critical monsoon season, which could affect crop development, Lerner said. India is the world’s fifth-biggest grower of soybeans and third- largest rapeseed producer.
“Rainfall in India is going to be poor,” Lerner said. “The oilseeds are all in the reproductive states in September and October, and if they don’t have rain in those two months, there could be some problems.”
Original from:: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=alfBe4L5eB0s
Water temperatures are rising in the central and eastern Pacific, Lerner said. As a result, warm, dry weather will occur from July through September, Lerner said today at an agricultural-investment conference in Chicago.
“The past few months, we’ve been in a warming trend,” Lerner said. “The warm pocket in the Pacific has warmed another quarter-degree. This El Nino is coming on fast and it’s coming on furious, and it will have an impact on world weather.”
Parts of the southern U.S. from Texas to Florida will get less than the normal amount of rain in the next three months, Lerner said. Excessive rainfall and cooler temperatures will help plants in the U.S. Midwest, including Iowa and Illinois, he said. Wet weather delayed planting of crops in both states, which are the largest U.S. producers of corn and soybeans.
“This is good for crops that were planted late,” said Lerner, whose weather forecasting company is based in Kansas City. “We’re going to dry out in the autumn. So people might be surprised by how well the crops do, despite being planted late.”
Rainfall in India will decline during the critical monsoon season, which could affect crop development, Lerner said. India is the world’s fifth-biggest grower of soybeans and third- largest rapeseed producer.
“Rainfall in India is going to be poor,” Lerner said. “The oilseeds are all in the reproductive states in September and October, and if they don’t have rain in those two months, there could be some problems.”
Original from:: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=alfBe4L5eB0s
Seawater enters hamlets
Fishing operations in almost all 42 western coastal hamlets of Kanyakumari district came to a standstill on Tuesday as sea was very rough and sea water entered the villages.
As heavy winds were lashing the entire western coast for the past few days, the houses in proximity to the coast were facing the threat of being washed away.
When the sea water entered the villages this morning, over 25 houses were badly damaged at Kadiyapattinam.
The road connecting the coastal hamlets also suffered extensive damage.
As violent tides started hitting the shores right from early morning, a one-day holiday was declared for the primary school at Irayumanthurai.
From "The Hindu"
As heavy winds were lashing the entire western coast for the past few days, the houses in proximity to the coast were facing the threat of being washed away.
When the sea water entered the villages this morning, over 25 houses were badly damaged at Kadiyapattinam.
The road connecting the coastal hamlets also suffered extensive damage.
As violent tides started hitting the shores right from early morning, a one-day holiday was declared for the primary school at Irayumanthurai.
From "The Hindu"
raining more in Bangalore
If you thought freak weather
was a faraway occurrence, then digest this: Bangalore received 20 cm of rainfall in the first half of the
June monsoon. Unusual, because Bangalore has received such an amount of rainfall only thrice since 1961, and that too not in the first half but in the entire month.
The last time we received above-20-cm rainfall in June was in 1996. We still have 15 days for this month’s quota. Meteorological department predicts at least 3-4 cm more of rainfall. “We received 22 cm in 1983, 21 cm in 1991 and 23 cm in 1996. In June 1996, there was a major cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal, which came very close to Chennai and could have affected both cities. The average rainfall in June is 8 cm. Data shows a considerable increase in pre-monsoon and monsoon rain over Bangalore.”
In 1961, the average pre-monsoon rainfall over Bangalore was 5 cm and nearly doubled to 9 cm in 2008. Likewise, Bangalore’s average monsoon rainfall of 40 cm in 1961 has now climbed to 52 cm. “I don’t know if this rise can be attributed to global warming, the impact of which is seen over a vast area. It cannot be sea-surface temperature rise as well because that can affect the climate nearby, but not a particular location,” said Met director A Muthuchami.
Original from: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Its-raining-more-in-Bangalore/articleshow/4664716.cms
was a faraway occurrence, then digest this: Bangalore received 20 cm of rainfall in the first half of the
June monsoon. Unusual, because Bangalore has received such an amount of rainfall only thrice since 1961, and that too not in the first half but in the entire month.
The last time we received above-20-cm rainfall in June was in 1996. We still have 15 days for this month’s quota. Meteorological department predicts at least 3-4 cm more of rainfall. “We received 22 cm in 1983, 21 cm in 1991 and 23 cm in 1996. In June 1996, there was a major cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal, which came very close to Chennai and could have affected both cities. The average rainfall in June is 8 cm. Data shows a considerable increase in pre-monsoon and monsoon rain over Bangalore.”
In 1961, the average pre-monsoon rainfall over Bangalore was 5 cm and nearly doubled to 9 cm in 2008. Likewise, Bangalore’s average monsoon rainfall of 40 cm in 1961 has now climbed to 52 cm. “I don’t know if this rise can be attributed to global warming, the impact of which is seen over a vast area. It cannot be sea-surface temperature rise as well because that can affect the climate nearby, but not a particular location,” said Met director A Muthuchami.
Original from: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Its-raining-more-in-Bangalore/articleshow/4664716.cms
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
China and India face extreme risk from disasters
Original from:: http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1525
Bangladeshis are most threatened by cyclones, people in China, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Myanmar are at the highest risk of dying from earthquakes, and Indians are most in danger from floods, a UN report says.
People in China and India are among those with an "extreme" risk of dying in a natural disaster, the United Nations said in a report Monday.
The global body also cited Bangladesh, Colombia, Indonesia and Myanmar as the countries facing the greatest threat of massive deaths from disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and landslides.
"Natural disasters are there and we cannot stop them," said Senator Loren Lagarda of the Philippines, who was among those presenting the UN's "Mortality Risk Index" in Geneva.
However, she said developing countries around the world need to improve their disaster planning to better prepare for disasters. Rich countries should help, as their industrialization has led to climate change that is exacerbating the effects of storms and other weather events, Lagarda said.
The index tables the world's countries according to a set of factors that include the prevalence of natural disasters, infrastructure for dealing with them and their level of preparedness. Two scales are used: one that places countries according to the absolute number of deaths likely to occur from disasters, and another based on the relative death rate.
Bangladeshis were seen as most threatened by cyclones. People in China, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Myanmar were at the highest risk of dying from earthquakes. Indians were most in danger from floods.
The report said Bangladesh, China, India and Indonesia were in the "extreme" category for average numbers of citizens at risk.
The UN will present the report Tuesday at a global disaster conference in Geneva attended by 1,800 government and risk reduction experts from around the world.
It found that Bahrain and a number of Gulf states face a very low risk of death from disasters. Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Latvia were also among "the safest places on earth from sudden" disasters.
The United States was among the countries where people faced a "medium high" risk. The biggest danger cited was that posed by earthquakes.
Bangladeshis are most threatened by cyclones, people in China, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Myanmar are at the highest risk of dying from earthquakes, and Indians are most in danger from floods, a UN report says.
People in China and India are among those with an "extreme" risk of dying in a natural disaster, the United Nations said in a report Monday.
The global body also cited Bangladesh, Colombia, Indonesia and Myanmar as the countries facing the greatest threat of massive deaths from disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and landslides.
"Natural disasters are there and we cannot stop them," said Senator Loren Lagarda of the Philippines, who was among those presenting the UN's "Mortality Risk Index" in Geneva.
However, she said developing countries around the world need to improve their disaster planning to better prepare for disasters. Rich countries should help, as their industrialization has led to climate change that is exacerbating the effects of storms and other weather events, Lagarda said.
The index tables the world's countries according to a set of factors that include the prevalence of natural disasters, infrastructure for dealing with them and their level of preparedness. Two scales are used: one that places countries according to the absolute number of deaths likely to occur from disasters, and another based on the relative death rate.
Bangladeshis were seen as most threatened by cyclones. People in China, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Myanmar were at the highest risk of dying from earthquakes. Indians were most in danger from floods.
The report said Bangladesh, China, India and Indonesia were in the "extreme" category for average numbers of citizens at risk.
The UN will present the report Tuesday at a global disaster conference in Geneva attended by 1,800 government and risk reduction experts from around the world.
It found that Bahrain and a number of Gulf states face a very low risk of death from disasters. Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Latvia were also among "the safest places on earth from sudden" disasters.
The United States was among the countries where people faced a "medium high" risk. The biggest danger cited was that posed by earthquakes.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Monsoon 2009 - Current status :: IMD report
Government of India
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release
Dated 10th June, 2009
Subject: Monsoon- 2009: Current status
Onset and advance of monsoon
Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea around its normal date, on 20th May. However, it set in over Kerala on 23rd May, about one week earlier than the normal date (1st June). IMD on 14th May issued forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days.
Subsequent to onset of monsoon over Kerala, a cyclonic storm named AILA formed in the Bay of Bengal. It resulted in advance of monsoon over northeastern states and West Bengal and Sikkim. Thereafter, no fresh surge developed in the Bay of Bengal which could bring the monsoon into the eastern parts of the country. After a hiatus of about a week, monsoon further advanced along the west coast and reached upto Ratnagiri on 7th June. Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan & Goa have received widespread rains accompanied with very heavy falls during 5th to 7th June. However, there has not been further advance of monsoon after 7th June and its northern limit continue to pass through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.
The advance of southwest monsoon into different parts of the country is generally not a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of southwesterly winds over the north Indian Ocean. In association with each surge, the rainfall activity gets revived and the rain belt shifts north and northwest. After each wet spell, normally there comes a hiatus of about 6 to 8 days in which the rainfall activity gets subdued, and northward advance of monsoon is also halted.
Current Scenario
As per the latest meteorological conditions and the forecast of several Numerical Weather Predication Models, southwest monsoon activity is not likely to revive during next one week. Consequently, the advance of monsoon over east, north peninsular and adjoining central India will be delayed. However, occasional thunderstorm activity will continue. Under this scenario, maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºc is likely over central, east and northwest India even with possibility of heat wave conditions over isolated pockets.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release
Dated 10th June, 2009
Subject: Monsoon- 2009: Current status
Onset and advance of monsoon
Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea around its normal date, on 20th May. However, it set in over Kerala on 23rd May, about one week earlier than the normal date (1st June). IMD on 14th May issued forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days.
Subsequent to onset of monsoon over Kerala, a cyclonic storm named AILA formed in the Bay of Bengal. It resulted in advance of monsoon over northeastern states and West Bengal and Sikkim. Thereafter, no fresh surge developed in the Bay of Bengal which could bring the monsoon into the eastern parts of the country. After a hiatus of about a week, monsoon further advanced along the west coast and reached upto Ratnagiri on 7th June. Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan & Goa have received widespread rains accompanied with very heavy falls during 5th to 7th June. However, there has not been further advance of monsoon after 7th June and its northern limit continue to pass through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.
The advance of southwest monsoon into different parts of the country is generally not a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of southwesterly winds over the north Indian Ocean. In association with each surge, the rainfall activity gets revived and the rain belt shifts north and northwest. After each wet spell, normally there comes a hiatus of about 6 to 8 days in which the rainfall activity gets subdued, and northward advance of monsoon is also halted.
Current Scenario
As per the latest meteorological conditions and the forecast of several Numerical Weather Predication Models, southwest monsoon activity is not likely to revive during next one week. Consequently, the advance of monsoon over east, north peninsular and adjoining central India will be delayed. However, occasional thunderstorm activity will continue. Under this scenario, maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºc is likely over central, east and northwest India even with possibility of heat wave conditions over isolated pockets.
Changing weather may kill us off
Mumbaikars need to brace themselves for more disasters as extreme weather events such as the deluge on July 26, 2005, may not be a one-off event. The climate in Indian cities, like Mumbai, is warming up fast and this could be a recipe for more natural disasters, says the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The regional IMD office at Mumbai analysed 100 years of weather data from 1901 onwards and found a rise of 1.62°C in the average maximum temperature. The report was submitted to the state chief minister on May 11.
In its report, Environmental Degradation, Disasters and Climate Change, the IMD team has argued that human activity induced environmental degradation was responsible for global warming.
“Our analysis shows that the 1990s witnessed three times more natural disasters, like floods and thunderstorms, than the 1960s. Even drought-prone districts such as Jaisalmer and Barmer in Rajasthan suffered devastating floods in 2006…Since 1960s, expenditure on mitigation and reduction of such disasters has
increased nine-folds,” says R V Sharma, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, during a recent press briefing.
Between early 20th and 21st centuries, Mumbai registered a mean maximum temperature rise of 1.62°C; this is a cause of great concern, Sharma says. It is not surprising that winters are giving Mumbai a miss, he added.
Is a rise of about 2°C over 100 years
really a matter of concern? Scientists warn such a rise has a direct negative impact on human health and food security.
There is scientific evidence to prove that an increase of 1°C in northern India’s hilly areas means wider malaria window. Mumbai is seeing a surge in malaria, but as of now, we cannot blame it on global warming.
“We have recently tied up with King
Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, to find out how diseases like malaria, dengue and asthma are related to global warming and climate change,” says Rakesh Kumar, head of National Environmental Engineering Research Institute’s Mumbai office, at a public meeting on Climate Change and Mumbai.
Meanwhile, newspapers in Mumbai are full of reports on rise in malaria cases. Already 1,351 malaria cases have been reported till April this year. There were a total of 790
cases last year.
Though there is no clear pattern, Sharma claims that 2001 onwards rainfall over Mumbai has increased. This could be due to a change in the lapse rate or the rate of change of any meteorological element (temperature in this case) with altitude. The lapse rate
determines the growth of clouds.
“The lapse rate is increasing with the cooling of air in the upper atmosphere and warming of the lower atmosphere. With such a steep lapse rate, cloud formation will be rapid and there will be more thunderstorms. There will also be heavy precipitation. This explains why there were more thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the past decade,” Sharma explains. Could a steep lapse rate be the reason behind cloud burst on July 26, 2005? The day when the city received 944 mm rainfall in just one day.
— Down To Earth Feature Service
Washed away
Global warming is changing
tidal action and forcing
islanders in low-lying areas to evacuate. In 2008, people from five islands in Papua New
Guinea — New Ireland,
Morobe, Manus, Bougainville, West and East Sepik and
Madang Provinces — were moved out fearing high tides. An estimated 50,000 people were affected. In 2003, the
island in south Pacific, sent a letter to the United Nations General Assembly, bringing to its attention, the “extreme
hardships” they have to suffer due to climate change and
variability and sea-level rise. Other South Pacific nations like the Kiribati, which is six feet above sea level, are slowly
submerging. In 2006, Kiribati’s President, Anote Tong, warned the neighbouring regions like Australia and New Zealand to prepare for a mass exodus from the archipelago. The number of people applying for a residence in New Zealand was 17,000 that year; more than four
times the number in 2003. Tong had set a timeline of 10 years, from 2006, before the island went under water.
Original from:: http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=A+changing+weather+may+kill+us+off&artid=/D5magZ49uc=&SectionID=f4OberbKin4=&MainSectionID=f4OberbKin4=&SEO=Climate+change&SectionName=cxWvYpmNp4fBHAeKn3LcnQ==
The regional IMD office at Mumbai analysed 100 years of weather data from 1901 onwards and found a rise of 1.62°C in the average maximum temperature. The report was submitted to the state chief minister on May 11.
In its report, Environmental Degradation, Disasters and Climate Change, the IMD team has argued that human activity induced environmental degradation was responsible for global warming.
“Our analysis shows that the 1990s witnessed three times more natural disasters, like floods and thunderstorms, than the 1960s. Even drought-prone districts such as Jaisalmer and Barmer in Rajasthan suffered devastating floods in 2006…Since 1960s, expenditure on mitigation and reduction of such disasters has
increased nine-folds,” says R V Sharma, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, during a recent press briefing.
Between early 20th and 21st centuries, Mumbai registered a mean maximum temperature rise of 1.62°C; this is a cause of great concern, Sharma says. It is not surprising that winters are giving Mumbai a miss, he added.
Is a rise of about 2°C over 100 years
really a matter of concern? Scientists warn such a rise has a direct negative impact on human health and food security.
There is scientific evidence to prove that an increase of 1°C in northern India’s hilly areas means wider malaria window. Mumbai is seeing a surge in malaria, but as of now, we cannot blame it on global warming.
“We have recently tied up with King
Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, to find out how diseases like malaria, dengue and asthma are related to global warming and climate change,” says Rakesh Kumar, head of National Environmental Engineering Research Institute’s Mumbai office, at a public meeting on Climate Change and Mumbai.
Meanwhile, newspapers in Mumbai are full of reports on rise in malaria cases. Already 1,351 malaria cases have been reported till April this year. There were a total of 790
cases last year.
Though there is no clear pattern, Sharma claims that 2001 onwards rainfall over Mumbai has increased. This could be due to a change in the lapse rate or the rate of change of any meteorological element (temperature in this case) with altitude. The lapse rate
determines the growth of clouds.
“The lapse rate is increasing with the cooling of air in the upper atmosphere and warming of the lower atmosphere. With such a steep lapse rate, cloud formation will be rapid and there will be more thunderstorms. There will also be heavy precipitation. This explains why there were more thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the past decade,” Sharma explains. Could a steep lapse rate be the reason behind cloud burst on July 26, 2005? The day when the city received 944 mm rainfall in just one day.
— Down To Earth Feature Service
Washed away
Global warming is changing
tidal action and forcing
islanders in low-lying areas to evacuate. In 2008, people from five islands in Papua New
Guinea — New Ireland,
Morobe, Manus, Bougainville, West and East Sepik and
Madang Provinces — were moved out fearing high tides. An estimated 50,000 people were affected. In 2003, the
island in south Pacific, sent a letter to the United Nations General Assembly, bringing to its attention, the “extreme
hardships” they have to suffer due to climate change and
variability and sea-level rise. Other South Pacific nations like the Kiribati, which is six feet above sea level, are slowly
submerging. In 2006, Kiribati’s President, Anote Tong, warned the neighbouring regions like Australia and New Zealand to prepare for a mass exodus from the archipelago. The number of people applying for a residence in New Zealand was 17,000 that year; more than four
times the number in 2003. Tong had set a timeline of 10 years, from 2006, before the island went under water.
Original from:: http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=A+changing+weather+may+kill+us+off&artid=/D5magZ49uc=&SectionID=f4OberbKin4=&MainSectionID=f4OberbKin4=&SEO=Climate+change&SectionName=cxWvYpmNp4fBHAeKn3LcnQ==
Key to monsoon revival now lies in Bay of Bengal
June 14 The monsoon has been stuck for exactly a week after it revived from the shock administered by Cyclone Aila, and is expected to stay as such for another three to four days.
This would delay its advance into major farming regions in the east, southeast and peninsular India, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
TROUGH OF LOW
The only redeeming feature as on date was the presence of a trough of low pressure over north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees some activity brewing here within the next five days.
The IMD said that increase in rainfall is likely along the west coast and over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from Wednesday apparently as a prelude to the churn in the Bay.
To the peninsular west, a persisting offshore trough linking south Karnataka coast to Kerala coast would continue to cause fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka also.
MORE RAINS
Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep, and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Tamil Nadu for two more days.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Delay in monsoon over Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining peninsular India has allowed heat wave conditions to develop.
On Saturday, the highest maximum temperature of 44.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Ganganagar. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed at isolated places in Vidarbha.
Meanwhile, Dr Karumuri Ashok, Senior Research Scientist at the Asia-Pacific Climate Centre, Busan, South Korea, has clarified that the forecast for a weak El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over the next months was ‘experimental’ in nature.
MODEL DIFFERENCE
The APCC predictions for El Nino and IOD are only in research mode, produced once a season for the next six-months with collaboration from several research centres to arrive at a consensual coupled model prediction.
The APCC’s ‘operational’ prediction (based on mathematical models of atmospheric motions alone) is different from this ‘coupled’ (ocean-atmosphere) prediction, Dr Ashok informed Business Line.
“As per our operational prediction, rainfall signals for India for June-July-August are positive to near normal everywhere, unlike the coupled prediction,” he said.
The equatorial Pacific would still need to be constantly watched before any final word could be said about the development of any major weather-altering event.
‘NEUTRAL’, FOR NOW
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said in its June-8 update said that ‘neutral’ conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
But current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicated that conditions were favourable for a transition to El Nino conditions during June-August.
Since the beginning of May 2009, positive sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been observed across the equatorial Pacific.
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest positive anomalies evident in the eastern and western Pacific, it said.
Original:: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/06/15/stories/2009061550490300.htm
This would delay its advance into major farming regions in the east, southeast and peninsular India, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
TROUGH OF LOW
The only redeeming feature as on date was the presence of a trough of low pressure over north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees some activity brewing here within the next five days.
The IMD said that increase in rainfall is likely along the west coast and over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from Wednesday apparently as a prelude to the churn in the Bay.
To the peninsular west, a persisting offshore trough linking south Karnataka coast to Kerala coast would continue to cause fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka also.
MORE RAINS
Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep, and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Tamil Nadu for two more days.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Delay in monsoon over Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining peninsular India has allowed heat wave conditions to develop.
On Saturday, the highest maximum temperature of 44.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Ganganagar. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed at isolated places in Vidarbha.
Meanwhile, Dr Karumuri Ashok, Senior Research Scientist at the Asia-Pacific Climate Centre, Busan, South Korea, has clarified that the forecast for a weak El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over the next months was ‘experimental’ in nature.
MODEL DIFFERENCE
The APCC predictions for El Nino and IOD are only in research mode, produced once a season for the next six-months with collaboration from several research centres to arrive at a consensual coupled model prediction.
The APCC’s ‘operational’ prediction (based on mathematical models of atmospheric motions alone) is different from this ‘coupled’ (ocean-atmosphere) prediction, Dr Ashok informed Business Line.
“As per our operational prediction, rainfall signals for India for June-July-August are positive to near normal everywhere, unlike the coupled prediction,” he said.
The equatorial Pacific would still need to be constantly watched before any final word could be said about the development of any major weather-altering event.
‘NEUTRAL’, FOR NOW
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said in its June-8 update said that ‘neutral’ conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
But current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicated that conditions were favourable for a transition to El Nino conditions during June-August.
Since the beginning of May 2009, positive sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been observed across the equatorial Pacific.
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest positive anomalies evident in the eastern and western Pacific, it said.
Original:: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/06/15/stories/2009061550490300.htm
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Severe Weather Pattern Threatens Asia-Pacific Region
original from:: http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-12-voa6.cfm
Climatologists are warning that an El Nino weather pattern, which can spark severe floods, forest fires and droughts, could develop in the coming weeks across the Asia-Pacific region.
An El Nino event occurs when water temperature in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean rises abnormally. The movement of warmer, moist air to the east leaves drier weather in the western Pacific.
The Climate Prediction Center in the United States has warned that after months of rising temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the onset of an El Nino pattern was becoming more likely between now and August. The water is now half a degree warmer than average.
Researchers at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology agree that an El Nino event is likely. They say if recent trends in Pacific climate patterns persist, there is a strong chance that an El Nino pattern will emerge in the coming months.
Australian farmers survey a dry creek bed on their drought stricken 100-hectare property near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane (File photo)
Australian farmers survey a dry creek bed on their drought stricken 100-hectare property near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane (File)
Such conditions could be disastrous for farmers in Australia's drought-prone southeast who can expect little relief from years of below average rainfall.
The effects of such a shift in weather patterns would be felt across Southeast Asia.
Professor Matthew England, director of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales, says Indonesia would likely have drastically less rainfall.
"The effects on Indonesia are actually even stronger," he said. "If you look at how El Nino affects all the nations around the Pacific Rim, Australia is often thought of prominently in that regard. But Indonesia and Southeast Asia generally see much drier conditions during El Ninos. In past El Ninos we have seen some very severe forest fires in Indonesia."
The most devastating El Nino occurred in 1997. It caused widespread drought in Australia and Indonesia as well as floods in Peru and Ecuador.
An El Nino event can also bring wetter weather to parts of the United States and can affect the monsoon season in India.
In an El Nino year, there are typically more hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific and, conversely, fewer such storms in the Atlantic.
Climatologists are warning that an El Nino weather pattern, which can spark severe floods, forest fires and droughts, could develop in the coming weeks across the Asia-Pacific region.
An El Nino event occurs when water temperature in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean rises abnormally. The movement of warmer, moist air to the east leaves drier weather in the western Pacific.
The Climate Prediction Center in the United States has warned that after months of rising temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the onset of an El Nino pattern was becoming more likely between now and August. The water is now half a degree warmer than average.
Researchers at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology agree that an El Nino event is likely. They say if recent trends in Pacific climate patterns persist, there is a strong chance that an El Nino pattern will emerge in the coming months.
Australian farmers survey a dry creek bed on their drought stricken 100-hectare property near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane (File photo)
Australian farmers survey a dry creek bed on their drought stricken 100-hectare property near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane (File)
Such conditions could be disastrous for farmers in Australia's drought-prone southeast who can expect little relief from years of below average rainfall.
The effects of such a shift in weather patterns would be felt across Southeast Asia.
Professor Matthew England, director of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales, says Indonesia would likely have drastically less rainfall.
"The effects on Indonesia are actually even stronger," he said. "If you look at how El Nino affects all the nations around the Pacific Rim, Australia is often thought of prominently in that regard. But Indonesia and Southeast Asia generally see much drier conditions during El Ninos. In past El Ninos we have seen some very severe forest fires in Indonesia."
The most devastating El Nino occurred in 1997. It caused widespread drought in Australia and Indonesia as well as floods in Peru and Ecuador.
An El Nino event can also bring wetter weather to parts of the United States and can affect the monsoon season in India.
In an El Nino year, there are typically more hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific and, conversely, fewer such storms in the Atlantic.
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