Changing weather may kill us off

Mumbaikars need to brace themselves for more disasters as extreme weather events such as the deluge on July 26, 2005, may not be a one-off event. The climate in Indian cities, like Mumbai, is warming up fast and this could be a recipe for more natural disasters, says the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The regional IMD office at Mumbai analysed 100 years of weather data from 1901 onwards and found a rise of 1.62°C in the average maximum temperature. The report was submitted to the state chief minister on May 11.

In its report, Environmental Degradation, Disasters and Climate Change, the IMD team has argued that human activity induced environmental degradation was responsible for global warming.

“Our analysis shows that the 1990s witnessed three times more natural disasters, like floods and thunderstorms, than the 1960s. Even drought-prone districts such as Jaisalmer and Barmer in Raja­sthan suffered devastating floods in 2006…Since 1960s, expenditure on mitigation and reduction of such disasters has

increased nine-folds,” says R V Sharma, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, during a recent press briefing.

Between early 20th and 21st centuries, Mumbai registered a mean maximum temperature rise of 1.62°C; this is a cause of great concern, Sharma says. It is not surprising that winters are giving Mumbai a miss, he added.

Is a rise of about 2°C over 100 years

really a matter of concern? Scientists warn such a rise has a direct negative impact on human health and food security.

There is scientific evidence to prove that an increase of 1°C in northern India’s hilly areas means wider malaria window. Mumbai is seeing a surge in malaria, but as of now, we cannot blame it on global warming.

“We have recently tied up with King

Edward Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, to find out how diseases like malaria, dengue and asthma are related to global warming and climate change,” says Rakesh Kumar, head of National Environmental Engineering Research Institute’s Mumbai office, at a public meeting on Climate Change and Mumbai.

Meanwhile, newspapers in Mumbai are full of reports on rise in malaria cases. Already 1,351 malaria cases have been reported till April this year. There were a total of 790

cases last year.

Though there is no clear pattern, Sharma claims that 2001 onwards rainfall over Mumbai has increased. This could be due to a change in the lapse rate or the rate of change of any meteorological element (temperature in this case) with altitude. The lapse rate

determines the growth of clouds.

“The lapse rate is increasing with the cooling of air in the upper atmosphere and warming of the lower atmosphere. With such a steep lapse rate, cloud formation will be rapid and there will be more thunderstorms. There will also be heavy precipitation. This explains why there were more thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the past decade,” Sharma explains. Could a steep lapse rate be the reason behind cloud burst on July 26, 2005? The day when the city received 944 mm rainfall in just one day.

— Down To Earth Feature Service

Washed away

Global warming is changing

tidal action and forcing

islanders in low-lying areas to evacuate. In 2008, people from five islands in Papua New

Guinea — New Ireland,

Morobe, Manus, Bougainville, West and East Sepik and

Madang Provinces — were moved out fearing high tides. An estimated 50,000 people were affected. In 2003, the

island in south Pacific, sent a letter to the United Nations General Assembly, bringing to its attention, the “extreme

hardships” they have to suffer due to climate change and

variability and sea-level rise. Other South Pacific nations like the Kiribati, which is six feet above sea level, are slowly

submerging. In 2006, Kiribati’s President, Anote Tong, warned the neighbouring regions like Australia and New Zealand to prepare for a mass exodus from the archipelago. The number of people applying for a residence in New Zealand was 17,000 that year; more than four

times the number in 2003. Tong had set a timeline of 10 years, from 2006, before the island went under water.
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