Government of India
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release
Dated 10th June, 2009
Subject: Monsoon- 2009: Current status
Onset and advance of monsoon
Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea around its normal date, on 20th May. However, it set in over Kerala on 23rd May, about one week earlier than the normal date (1st June). IMD on 14th May issued forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days.
Subsequent to onset of monsoon over Kerala, a cyclonic storm named AILA formed in the Bay of Bengal. It resulted in advance of monsoon over northeastern states and West Bengal and Sikkim. Thereafter, no fresh surge developed in the Bay of Bengal which could bring the monsoon into the eastern parts of the country. After a hiatus of about a week, monsoon further advanced along the west coast and reached upto Ratnagiri on 7th June. Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan & Goa have received widespread rains accompanied with very heavy falls during 5th to 7th June. However, there has not been further advance of monsoon after 7th June and its northern limit continue to pass through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.
The advance of southwest monsoon into different parts of the country is generally not a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of southwesterly winds over the north Indian Ocean. In association with each surge, the rainfall activity gets revived and the rain belt shifts north and northwest. After each wet spell, normally there comes a hiatus of about 6 to 8 days in which the rainfall activity gets subdued, and northward advance of monsoon is also halted.
Current Scenario
As per the latest meteorological conditions and the forecast of several Numerical Weather Predication Models, southwest monsoon activity is not likely to revive during next one week. Consequently, the advance of monsoon over east, north peninsular and adjoining central India will be delayed. However, occasional thunderstorm activity will continue. Under this scenario, maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºc is likely over central, east and northwest India even with possibility of heat wave conditions over isolated pockets.
No comments:
Post a Comment