Bijli's final track - video

past 12 hr satellite pics loop

Land ahoy for cyclone "Bijli"

At last cyclone bijli has made landfall over Bangladesh at around "10 PM" India time near "Chittagong sea port".

Here's the final tracking from JTWC (issued just before making landfall) and some news reports.

POSITION NEAR 22.2N 92.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BANGLADESH
AT 18Z, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 1930Z. TC 01B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND,
ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
BANGLADESH, EASTERN INDIA AND INTO MYANMAR, CAUSING TC 01B TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET

Here's the satellite pic just before impact.

Cyclone Bijli hits Bangladesh coast from Earthtimes.org

Dhaka - Cyclone

Bijli hit the Bangladeshi coast late Friday night, but the tropical storm had weaken slightly before reaching the south eastern shoreline, officials said. A Bangladesh meteorological department statement said that the cyclone - with a wind speed

of 90 kilometres per hour - would take five to six hours to cross the coast.

It was likely to continue gradually weakening, it added.

Several thousand inhabitants of islands in the Bay of Bengal were already evacuated earlier Friday, ahead of the storm.

No initial reports of casualties were reported from the coastal districts, apart from destruction of a few thatched houses and damaged crops in the path of the cyclone.

The government earlier suspended all works at Bangladesh's major Chittagong sea port, and Shah Amanat International Airport

, the second largest airport of the country, as a precaution for the storm.

"We observe the cyclone was getting weaker gradually , and there is nothing to be panicked at this moment," Bangladesh's Food and Disaster Management Affairs Minister Abdur Razzak said after reviewing the situation at a meeting on disaster preparedness.

He added that the maritime ports must maintain the defensive stance adopted earlier to avoid loss of life and property.

Earlier on Friday, the authorities evacuated several thousand residents of islands in the Bay of Bengal as the moderate-intensity cyclone was forecast to hit the Bangladeshi coast early Saturday.

"People from low-lying islands were brought to cyclone shelter centres Friday, and we have prepared to evacuate other costal residents to safer places if required," said MS Akbar, chairman of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.

More than 12,000 volunteers were engaged in cyclone preparedness work.

Heavy rainfall was recorded Friday in coastal districts, and the low-lying coastal areas of Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal and Chandpur and their offshore islands were warned to expect water surge of 2 to 3 meters above normal tide.

Fishing boats and trawlers in the northern Bay of Bengal were ordered to take shelter, and the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority suspended river transport service.

Thousands of volunteers have been asking coastal residents to go to safer places, especially to cyclone shelter centres constructed after the devastation of the November 2007 Supercyclone Sidr, which killed more than 4,000 people.

"Bijli" still skimming the coast.

Here is the latest satellite pic 7 pm India Time.

We can notice lot's of small and big Electric storms along it's TAIL ...around orissa, Andhra.

And we can notice a BIG electric storm over western ghats.

News about "bijli" is that it's skimming along, and now almost crossing Bangladesh.

Next 40 days according to MJO

Present WET conditions over Bay is going to vanish after 20-Apr-09.

A mild wet disturbance to come around 1st week of May.

Super DRY and HOT spell is from 6-May to 16-May.

And South-west monsoon is coming good after 26-May-09.

We'll keep updating this MJO factor.

For the past week the MJO factor proved perfect.

No land in site for "Bijli"...!

Here is the latest tracking data and prediction from JTWC.

So far, JTWC predictions has proved right.

It seems the Cyclone will intensify further before making land fall.

POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.

Latest satellite pic (4 pm India time)... shows the CORE is almost touching the coast of Bangladesh.

Regardless of JTWC prediction, We might have a landfall over Bangladesh in another 2 hrs.

We'll update it as and when it happens.

"Bijli" then and now (videos)

THEN

NOW

Latest on cyclone "Bijli"

"bijli" now has got even more stronger after 4 PM India time. During Noon india time, the core does seem to disintegrate and then in evening it started to pickup again.

Here is the latest warning from JTWC. It has predicted that the Cyclone will intesify slightly and skim along the indian coast and make landfall near Myanmar and Bangladesh coast. But keep it crossed, this system might disintegrate near Orissa coast OR eventually make landfall into Orissa itself.

POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET

"Green Tropical cyclone alert" - from GDACS.org

Analysis based on advisory number 6 for BIJLI-09, published on 4/16/2009 06:00 UTC

• The storm is: active
• Current postion: 86.09, 17.39
• Basin: NorthIndian
• Current strength: Tropical Storm
• Current maximum sustained wind speed: 23 m/s, 45 kt

Event time line

Date and time (forecasted in italic, current between red lines)	15/4 18h	16/4 0h	16/4 6h	16/4 18h	17/4 6h	17/4 18h	18/4 6h
Advisory number	4	5	6
Wind speed	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS	TS
Population in cyclone Category I (thousand)
Population in tropical storm (million)						½
Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand)
Risk of wind damage
Affected cities

Heat is UP !!!

Taken from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com

It is hot, with few exceptions, throughout the Subcontinent in South Asia. Witness three-straight days of 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Mumbai-Santa Cruz (ended Sunday). And today, Monday, Akola, eastern Maharashtra, reached 111 degrees F/43.8 degrees C.

Normal temperatures over the Subcontinent as a whole are very high and still climbing by the day. It will top out somewhere between late April and late June, depending upon location, with heat in the south topping out first. In this light, that it has become hot is no revelation. Yet, over a wide area, this heat has become strong sooner than usual.

--Looking forward, there is little reason for a big shift in overall heat over the Subcontinent through at least this week. The subtropical Westerlies have nearly left the area south of the Himalaya and Hindu Kush allowing subtropical high pressure aloft to dominate. True, there will ripple eastward over the Subcontinent during this week of a weak short-wave trough in the Westerlies ("Western Disturbance").

By their nature, such waves have relatively cool air in their core, so slight trimming and reshuffling of the heat will happen. Maybe, the west will "cool" (by a few degrees C) first as the core of the highest heat shifts to the east. This would be followed by a slight cooling in the east as a new hot core sets up over the west.

--I have been asked what the heat means with respect to SW Monsoon onset. Short answer: I do not know. I have not studied the mechanics of the SW Monsoon any more than in a superficial way. There is a school of thought that says that relatively strong heating ahead of the SW Monsoon may bring it on early. Maybe so.

"01B" is now "Bijli"

Yesterday morning's cyclone "01B" has been named as Cyclone "Bijli".... nice name.

For the last 24 hrs it's moving rapidly in a North-west direction and now it's very close to Orissa.

Still JTWC and other GFS models suggest a "skimming of the coast"... and might get inland over Bangladesh.

Latest satellite pic shows that it's almost touching southern Orissa & northern Andhra coast and still the head is big....and there's lot of signs over northern Bay suggesting that "Bijli" will trace the JTWC path prediction.

Here is the JTWC path prediction and warning text.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 0046Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. THE NOGAPS
MODEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC
HELPING INDUCE A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF
THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS. GFS AND
EGRR CONTINUE TO HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO
NOT FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FAVORING NOGAPS AND ECMWF DUE TO
THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAVOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO 60
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS
13 FEET