Here is the latest satellite pic 7 pm India Time.
We can notice lot's of small and big Electric storms along it's TAIL ...around orissa, Andhra.
And we can notice a BIG electric storm over western ghats.
News about "bijli" is that it's skimming along, and now almost crossing Bangladesh.
Present WET conditions over Bay is going to vanish after 20-Apr-09.
A mild wet disturbance to come around 1st week of May.
Super DRY and HOT spell is from 6-May to 16-May.
And South-west monsoon is coming good after 26-May-09.
We'll keep updating this MJO factor.
For the past week the MJO factor proved perfect.
Here is the latest tracking data and prediction from JTWC.
So far, JTWC predictions has proved right.
It seems the Cyclone will intensify further before making land fall.
POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.
Latest satellite pic (4 pm India time)... shows the CORE is almost touching the coast of Bangladesh.
Regardless of JTWC prediction, We might have a landfall over Bangladesh in another 2 hrs.
We'll update it as and when it happens.
"bijli" now has got even more stronger after 4 PM India time. During Noon india time, the core does seem to disintegrate and then in evening it started to pickup again.
Here is the latest warning from JTWC. It has predicted that the Cyclone will intesify slightly and skim along the indian coast and make landfall near Myanmar and Bangladesh coast. But keep it crossed, this system might disintegrate near Orissa coast OR eventually make landfall into Orissa itself.
POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET
Analysis based on advisory number 6 for BIJLI-09, published on 4/16/2009 06:00 UTC
| Date and time (forecasted in italic, current between red lines) | 15/4 18h | 16/4 0h | 16/4 6h | 16/4 18h | 17/4 6h | 17/4 18h | 18/4 6h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advisory number | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||||
| Wind speed | TS | TS | TS | TS | TS | TS | TS |
| Population in cyclone Category I (thousand) | |||||||
| Population in tropical storm (million) | ½ | ||||||
| Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand) | |||||||
| Risk of wind damage |  | | | | | | |
| Affected cities |  | | | | | | |
Taken from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com
It is hot, with few exceptions, throughout the Subcontinent in South Asia. Witness three-straight days of 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Mumbai-Santa Cruz (ended Sunday). And today, Monday, Akola, eastern Maharashtra, reached 111 degrees F/43.8 degrees C.
Normal temperatures over the Subcontinent as a whole are very high and still climbing by the day. It will top out somewhere between late April and late June, depending upon location, with heat in the south topping out first. In this light, that it has become hot is no revelation. Yet, over a wide area, this heat has become strong sooner than usual.
--Looking forward, there is little reason for a big shift in overall heat over the Subcontinent through at least this week. The subtropical Westerlies have nearly left the area south of the Himalaya and Hindu Kush allowing subtropical high pressure aloft to dominate. True, there will ripple eastward over the Subcontinent during this week of a weak short-wave trough in the Westerlies ("Western Disturbance").
By their nature, such waves have relatively cool air in their core, so slight trimming and reshuffling of the heat will happen. Maybe, the west will "cool" (by a few degrees C) first as the core of the highest heat shifts to the east. This would be followed by a slight cooling in the east as a new hot core sets up over the west.
--I have been asked what the heat means with respect to SW Monsoon onset. Short answer: I do not know. I have not studied the mechanics of the SW Monsoon any more than in a superficial way. There is a school of thought that says that relatively strong heating ahead of the SW Monsoon may bring it on early. Maybe so.
Yesterday morning's cyclone "01B" has been named as Cyclone "Bijli".... nice name.
For the last 24 hrs it's moving rapidly in a North-west direction and now it's very close to Orissa.
Still JTWC and other GFS models suggest a "skimming of the coast"... and might get inland over Bangladesh.
Latest satellite pic shows that it's almost touching southern Orissa & northern Andhra coast and still the head is big....and there's lot of signs over northern Bay suggesting that "Bijli" will trace the JTWC path prediction.
Here is the JTWC path prediction and warning text.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 0046Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. THE NOGAPS
MODEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC
HELPING INDUCE A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF
THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS. GFS AND
EGRR CONTINUE TO HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO
NOT FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FAVORING NOGAPS AND ECMWF DUE TO
THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAVOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO 60
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS
13 FEET
At present "01B" is mild in strength and heading towards Orissa coast.
Latest satellite shot shows HUGE mass of swirling cloud near Orissa and it's covering almost full of Northern bay.
Here is the warning text and graphic from JTWC
POSITION NEAR 14.9N 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150159Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH BROKEN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS IT
TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM
142345Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 35KT WINDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND THE LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER ASIA MINOR. AFTER
TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA THAT WILL HELP TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. FORECASTED TRACK IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT
OF OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH EGRR BEING THE ONE OUTLIER TRACKING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POSITION
IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG,
BUT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS STARTING TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE SINGLE
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE FORECAST INTENSIFIES
TC 01B SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OBJECTIVE AIDS THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.
"94B" is now cyclone "01B", this is the first cyclone of the year 2009.
Here is the latest tracking from JTWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 142007Z AMSU-B
PASS INDICATE THAT INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 01B HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM A QUASI-
STATIONARY POSITION AND IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA HAVE CAUSED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER IN THE LAST 06 HOURS THE INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF TC 01B HAS
BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT INFLUENCE AND WILL HELP TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TURNS IT MORE NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND WILL HINDER OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL, LEAVING ONLY THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON THE
SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE
FORECAST INTENSIFIES TC 01B AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48
WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES BEYOND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141121Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 141130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET.
Here is the latest satellite pic from www.weatheronline.co.uk
Here is the latest GFS from BBC , like all GFS models this also shows the same "01B dying out in open seas" before friday (17-Apr-09)
