Monsoon may peak next week

The South-West monsoon may ratchet up to peak strength next week with “twin engines” firing away at vanguard points in the seas across the peninsula.

The prognosis has lead to one model, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to suggest that seasonal rains could even manage to cover the entire country just ahead of the June 30 time line.

MONSOON LOW'S

This is saying much, according to experts, given that the system had stalled for a week in the onset phase with Super Cyclone Phet upending the rhythm.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees monsoon winds roaring across the farming heartland powered by the ‘twin engines' on either side of the peninsula.

By mentioning twin engines, the reference is to concurrent ‘low'/depression spearheading rains respectively from the Gujarat coast and the head Bay of Bengal.

The latter is considered the monsoon ‘sweet spot' for low's ensuring orderly march of the rains to northwest India across the Gangetic plains.

RAINS ALREADY

This would provide for the most ideal setting, not seen for a long time now, showing monsoon in full flow across the landmass.

According to the NCEP, the west coast would be active during the current week ending June 16. Crucially enough, the Bay of Bengal is forecast to continue to be active in the following week ending June 25, helping bring rains into northwest India.

North-West India has already had its fair share of heavy to very heavy but non-seasonal rains from surplus moisture fanned in by erstwhile tropical cyclone ‘Phet.'

India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the rains had caused temperatures to plunge by a massive 19 deg Celsius in the region due to overcast skies and rains.

MERCURY TO RISE

On the flip side, though, this would briefly unsettle the ‘heat low' sitting in the region with a major say on pulling in the monsoon winds.

‘Top heat,' in this manner, has now shifted to central and east India.

But an IMD outlook for the next two days said that maximum temperature would start rising by 6 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of northwest India.

On Wednesday, the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation descended to the lower levels and set up a ‘low' over west-central Bay.

Global Forecasting System (GFS) model outputs by the NCEP continued to suggest that the system may track west across the peninsula and emerge into the Arabian Sea.

The IMD saw intensification of monsoon flow over Arabian Sea, south peninsular India and Bay of Bengal during the next four days.

NCEP outlooks suggested that the system in the Arabian Sea may track north and take the monsoon with it into Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.

But it showed the system parked away from the Gujarat coast that day up to which forecasts were available on Wednesday.

The ECMWF in its short-to-medium forecast said that the system would wash ashore along the Gujarat coast and oversee the progress of rains in tandem with a ‘low' shaping up concurrently over the head Bay.

The IMD has warned of isolated heavy rainfall over the Northeastern States, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.

Forecasts until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Rayalaseema and Telangana during the next 24 hours and increase thereafter.

Forecasts until Monday suggested that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, the Northeastern States and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Rains and Pleasant Weather in North

Rains and Pleasant Weather in North:

Since Phet crossed into Northwest India, widespread rainfall has been reported from many parts in the region, as the system had interacted with a prevailing western disturbance, and formed the mini W.D,
The ongoing rainfall due to this in the North/Northwest has pushed the heat further South and South-east to cover pockets of  Bihar,  Orissa, and Chhattisgarh.
Also, as anticipated, heavy unseasonal snow  in Lahaul-Spiti and widespread rain in middle and lower hill areas provided much-needed relief to people from sweltering heat and dry spell.
The twin valleys of Lahaul and Sipti recorded heaviest snow for June for the past several decades. Keylong, the district headquarters, had received 10 inches of snowfall by the evening and it was still continuing. The Kunzum Pass and Kibber and other higher areas received even more.

The core pressure of the Monsoon seasonal low over the Rajasthan/Sindh region has suddenly gone up to 1002 mb, against a normal required at this time of 994 mb.Temperatures were well below normal since the last 2 days.(IMD Maps).
The Monsoon had not advanced beyond the Northern limit aligned Southwest to Northeast along Karwar, Bangalore, Cuddapah, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok which has been held on since on Monday.
Heat is again required to create the steep gradiant to pull up the Monsoon.

Heat Wave Forecast: 
I do not rule out the possibility of an extreme heat wave over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Vidharbh, and delhi/Haryana regions from Friday thru Sunday (11th/12th/13th). The regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan will have to gear up to face temperatures upto 46/47c, with an exceptional 48c in some pockets of Rajasthan.

Forecast for Monsoon Progress:
The Bay  has spun up a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, which forecast to intensified as a “low”on Wednesday.This would track west and cross close to the Chennai coast.
The system would continue to track to the west and re-emerge into the Arabian Sea, near Goa by Monday, 14th. June. On entering the Arabian Sea, it seems it could get embedded in a offshore trough along the west coast. This could would help intensify the system, maybe into a depression, or a deep depression, and push it northward along the coast, according to international model outlook.
According to the ECMWF, the intensified system would be pulled up towards Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.
Most models forecast the system  would track India's west coast and head towards the Mumbai-Gujarat coast.

What is apparently becoming a certain possibility is for heavy rains over the Konkan/Mumbai/Gujarat region from June 15.
After the system enters into the Arabian Sea arena, say by Sunday,the Northward progress towards Mumbai would be watched carefully.The Monsoon arrival over Mumbai could be around Sunday/Monday.

Mumbai Forecast: Cloudy and passing showers, with the same hit and miss showers continuing in parts of the city till Saturday.
Sunday/Monday will be overcast and more rainy, with rains measuring upto 20 mms/day.
Monday night and Tuesday will get very heavy rains, upto 150-200mms, with gusty winds. Typical monsoonish flooding weather on Tuesday,15th.

Cloud burst over Salem and showers over Kerala.. IMD report of 28-May-10

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhrapradesh . Dry weather prevailed over Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.

Salem and Mancompu (Alapuzha dt.) recorded a heavy rainfall of 10 and 7 centimetres respectively .

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:

Virudhunagar  6, Mavelikkara (Alapuzha dt.) 5, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Sendamangalam (Namakkal dt.) and Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 4 each, Mangalapuram and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt.), Sivakasi and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 3 each, Pechiparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt.), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt.) , Tiruchirapalli Airport, Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar dt.), Cherthala (Alapuzha dt.) , Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram Airport and Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt.)  2 each and Yercaud, Padallur and Vembavur (both Perambalur dt.), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt.), Devala (Nilgiris dt.), Sathur (Virudhunagar dt.), Vythiri (Wayanad dt.), Thrissur, Kunnamkulam (Thrissur dt.), CIAL Kochi, Peermedu (Idukki dt.), Konni (Pathanamthitta dt.) Kollam, Minicoy and Vishakapattinam  1 each.

 Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh

 On Friday, the maximum temperature rose at one or two places over Telangana , South coastal Andhrapradesh, fell markedly at one or two places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, fell at one or two places over Interior Tamilnadu and changed little elsewhere over the region.

 They were largely above normal at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, North coastal Tamilnadu, rest coastal Andhrapradesh, appreciably above normal at a few places over Kerala, interior Tamilnadu rest north coastal Tamilnadu , North interior Karnataka, rest Telangana, Rayalaseema, above normal at one or two places over rest Coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka , rest Rayalaseema, rest interior Tamilnadu , below normal at one or two places over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and were generally normal over rest of the region.

 Number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius in the region.

IMD sees monsoon onset ‘around Monday'

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala would occur ‘around May 31'.
The IMD had, on May 14, issued the forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days.
It based its latest outlook on interpretation of latest meteorological conditions and also guidance of numerical weather models.

VORTEX LIKELY
There is also good possibility for the development of a monsoon onset vortex (a small but intense low-pressure system), off the Kerala coast during this period.
But the movement of the vortex is predicted to be away from the west coast, in a north-northwesterly direction, the IMD said.
(Numerical weather model predictions seemed to suggest rapid development of this system into a likely cyclonic storm.
These predictions showed the system spinning away into the west-northwest direction but posited half-way into north Arabian Sea by June 4 up to which forecasts were available.)
Westerlies may strengthen
It is expected that the vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast, the IMD said.
Numerical models indicate possibility of strengthening of the cross equatorial monsoon flow along the Indian longitudes.
The IMD operational models also show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, northward extension and quantity of moisture content along the west coast.

STRONG WESTERLIES
Models are indicating development of organised convection over the South Arabian Sea from Sunday onwards.
Referring to two major monsoon facilitators, the IMD said that the ‘heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country.
In this manner, the north-south pressure gradient (high in south to low over northwest) has strengthened, particularly over the Bay of Bengal.
There is also possibility of further advance of monsoon up to coastal Karnataka and southern parts of Tamil Nadu by around June 1.
Forecast from various global models indicates better circulation features conducive for monsoon during June 4 to 10 with strengthening of the cross equatorial flow over south Arabian Sea.

MONSOON ADVANCE
Models are also indicating increase of rainfall over the west coast of India during this week, the IMD outlook said.
Under these meteorological conditions, there is also possibility of advance of monsoon up to south Konkan and Goa along the west coast and also over parts of the Northeastern States.

Meanwhile on Friday, satellite pictures made available by the US National Weather Service at 5.15 p.m. showed convection mostly concentrated to east-central Arabian Sea.
Some of the clouds streaked across adjoining east and southeast Arabian Sea reaching into Kerala and adjoining south Arabian Sea.
A number of international models had already hinted the cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea over the next few days, close on the heels of monsoon onset over Kerala coast.
Some of these models suggested a changed track for the brewing system, which could first approach the Kerala-Karnataka coast initially.
The system might just toy with the coast by May 31-June 1, before shifting gears and start tracking north along the west coast.
It would then start re-curving north-northwest as models suggested earlier, and head into the north Arabian Sea by June 4.
But from here, models tend to disagree with the likely track of the storm in view of the arrival of a westerly trough from the northwest that would cut across Pakistan into north Arabian Sea.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in its update on Friday suggested that the westerly trough would ‘appropriate' the storm and steer it towards the east.
This was the case with Cyclone ‘Laila' that hit the Andhra Pradesh coast last week, before being steered north-northeast by a passing westerly trough that dipped into central India and adjoining Bay of Bengal.
In this manner, the ECMWF forecast template, the farthest available on Friday, took the system tracking to the east from north Arabian Sea for a likely landfall over southwest Gujarat by June 7.
The agency had initially suggested that the system would continue to track north-northwest and cross the Oman coast in a replay of year 2007 when Super Cyclone Gonu.

Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 26-May-2010

TN toppers from 1.1.10 to 26.05.10
--------------------------------------------------- Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) – 50 cm
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 38 cm
Thalli (Krishnagiri dt) – 37 cm
Kodaikanal (Dindigul dt)– 31 cm
Boothapandi (Kanyakumari dt) – 31 cm
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 30 cm
Andipatti (Theni dt) – 27 cm
Valparai (Coimbatore dt) – 25 cm

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 26.05.10
---------------------------------------------------
Cherrapunji 481 cm
Silchar 150 cm
Passighat 146 cm
Dibrugarh 118 cm
Itanagar 105 cm
Dhubri 99 cm
Gangtok 97 cm
North Lakhimpur 92 cm
Coochbehar 82 cm
Guwahati 73 cm
Lengpui 72 cm

posted by Pradeep

IMD chennai report for 25-May

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Karnataka. Mainly dry weather prevailed over coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.

            .

The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in Centimetres:

Aluva (Ernakulam dt) 14, Kanjirapally (Kottayam dt) 8 and Kochi airport and Kottayam 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres:

Aminidivi 5, Kozhikode, Piravom (Ernakulam dt), Kayamkulam (Alapuzha dt) 4 each, Vadakara (Kozhikode dt), Haripad (Alapuzha dt), Vaikom (Kottayam dt) 3 each, Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt), Perumbavoor (Ernakulam dt), Chengannur (Alapuzha dt) and Minicoy 2 each and Kuzhithurai and Boothapandi (both Kanyakumari dt), Devala (Nilgiris dt), Vadakkancherry (Thrissur dt), CIAL Kochi, Mancompu (Alapuzha dt), Kozha (Kottayam dt), Punalur, Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram airport, Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt) and Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt) 1 each.

 Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Telangana.

 On Tuesday, the maximum temperature rose appreciably at one or two places over Tamil Nadu, rose at one or two places over Coastal Andhrapradesh, Telangana, fell at one or two places over Coastal Karnataka and changed little elsewhere over the region.

     They were  markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, North Coastal Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, appreciably above normal at one or two places over rest Tamil Nadu, rest coastal Andhra Pradesh, rest Coastal Karnataka, below normal at one or two places over South interior Karnataka, Kerala and were generally normal over rest of the region.

 Ramagundam, Nizamabad and Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 47 degree Celsius in the region.

Monsoon stuck over Sri Lanka as wind speed flags

The advance of the South-West monsoon into mainland India has been stuck at the penultimate port of call in Sri Lanka as seasonal winds failed to orient themselves and lagged in speed and vertical profile.
Winds are southwesterly just beyond the peninsular tip, tending to become westerly to the immediate north.
What prevents their further streamlining is the incursion of dry northwesterly winds from the north Arabian Sea.

RAIN IN KERALA
The southwest coast, mainly Kerala, has been witnessing widespread to scattered thundershowers over the past few days, triggered by the limited churn set up by the southwesterly, westerly and northwesterly flows in the southeast Arabian Sea.
Ideally, winds need to turn southwesterly to westerly over the southwest coast over a height of 5-6 km above mean sea level.
But half way up, the winds are still easterly over the peninsula, according to observations by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the Climate Prediction System of the US National Weather Services is of the view that the rains would spread along the entire west coast during the week ending May 31.
Meanwhile, the Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre (APCC) has come out with a June-July-August precipitation forecast that jells with the ‘overall good monsoon' outlook maintained by peer models across the world.
In the operative part of the forecast published on Tuesday, the APCC said that ‘areas of above normal rainfall lie over north India, East Asia covering eastern China, Korea and southern Japan.'
This is suggestive of a possibility of the intensification of the monsoon trough over north India and Changma over the Korean peninsula, the APCC said.

The build-up in northwest India ahead of the onset of monsoon is apace with intense heating of the plains taking place to levels not seen in the immediate past. The heating helps establish the ‘heat low' over northwest India, which is a crucial meteorological parameter facilitating the orderly progress of monsoon into the mainland. The ‘heat low' sets up the pressure and temperature gradient relative to the higher values over peninsular south where the monsoon rains set in. This pressure and temperature differential drives the system to the north of the country.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday said that severe heat wave conditions were prevailing over isolated pockets of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Heat wave conditions prevailed over most parts of the rest of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and over many parts of Vidarbha and over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and Telangana.The highest maximum temperature of 48.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Kota in Rajasthan during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
Satellite imagery showed convective (thundershower-causing) clouds over parts of central and southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Kerala and south Arabian Sea. Forecast until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands while they would be scattered over coastal Karnataka.
Towards the north, a western disturbance is forecast to bring scattered rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand from Thursday.
Scattered dust storm or thunderstorms have been forecast also over Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Churn in Arabian Sea makes forecasters sit up

A remnant circulation from cyclone Laila has waded into the Bay of Bengal and set up a fresh low-pressure area on Monday.
The system is not seen as intensifying appreciably to exert further “pull” pressure on the monsoon, currently regrouping over the southeast Arabian Sea.
This part of the Arabian Sea is showing signs of some churn, but would need to be watched for likely formation of a system and its subsequent strengthening.

ONSET DYNAMICS


System formation and its strengthening just before the onset of monsoon could have an adverse impact over associated dynamics along the Kerala coast, as witnessed in the past few years.
A strong system (or an untimely cyclone) in the Arabian Sea before the monsoon flows have settled into the ideal pattern could see itself being driven north either along the west coast or away from it, and rob mainland India of precious moisture.
Otherwise, conditions are evolving for the onset over the next two-day period, according to Dr C.K. Rajan, Professor-in-charge, Chair for Climate Change at the Kochi-based School of Communication and Management Studies (SCMS).
The system behaviour would become clear in 12 to 24 hours after the Laila remnant in the Bay expectedly dies a natural death and its impact on the monsoon flow wanes, Dr Rajan told Business Line.
Prof Paul Roundy at the University of Albany has been alluding to the development of a system in the southeast and east-central Arabian Sea and, in the latest update of May 20, he has maintained the outlook.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of northeast, east-central and adjoining west-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, the Northeastern States, Gangetic West Bengal, Kerala and south Arabian Sea.
The satellite picture update for aviators put up by the International Civil Aviation Organisation also showed convective clouds massing around the region late on Monday evening.
Winds in the south Arabian Sea are southwesterly becoming westerly to the north of 5 degree Latitude, and this wind profile would need to extend north to the 10 degree N latitude for onset conditions to generate.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction showed a calibrated rise of rain activity along the southwest coast during the course of this week.

RAIN SPURT

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University saw a spurt in rainfall around the extreme southern peninsular point around Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, the IMD said in its forecasts valid until Thursday that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast also over the Northeastern States during this period as moisture incursion continues under the effect of strong southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal.
A western disturbance is expected to cause isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next 24 hours.
Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms may occur over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in the northwest and over east India and Karnataka.

TRMM analysis as Cyclone Laila hits Coastal Andhra on 20-May

TRMM captured data used in the image above on 20 May 2010 0714 UTC just before tropical cyclone LAILA came ashore in eastern India. LAILA was at tropical storm strength with winds estimated at about 50 knots (~57.5 mph) at that time. Very intense rainfall of over 50mm/hr (~2 inches) is shown over land northwest of the storm's center in this analysis of TRMM rainfall data. Data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments were used in the rainfall analysis. These data were overlaid on a combined Visible and Infrared image from TRMM's Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS). To this date at least six people were reported killed in incidents related to LAILA and many fishing boats damaged. LAILA was forecast to weaken to tropical depression intensity by 22 May 2010 while moving to the northeast inland parallel to the eastern India coast.

The 3-D image on the right was made using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and shows that the powerful thunderstorms northwest of tropical cyclone LAILA shot up to heights above 17.5 kilometers (~57,415 feet).

Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 18 .. Stationary over Andhra

IMD warning 7:30am IST
----------------------------------------

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21^st May 2010 near Machilipatnam(Andhra Pradesh).

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.

Gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Damage to thatched huts, breaking of the tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation.

Forecast for Orissa: Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal & south Orissa and isolated heavy over remaining parts of Orissa during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa during the same period.pFishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21^st May 2010.

JTWC warning
-----------------------------

210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
TRACKED INLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW 
WEAKENING TREND. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW HAVE BEEN 
SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY 
REPORTING STATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, PARALLELING 
THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF INDIA WHILE WEAKENING. THE TRACK HAS BEEN 
SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, AND 
DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER LAND PRIOR TO ENTERING 
BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR 
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN THE VICINITY OF BANGLADESH, AS THE 
REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP 
TROPICS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. 

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------

Satellite shot at 8am IST
----------------------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 .. Started moving North-East

IMD warning at 17:30hrs IST
----------------------------------------

The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010 near latitude 15.8⁰N and long.80.5⁰E close to Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh). The latest observations at 1630 hours IST suggest that the system is now crossing the coast close to Bapatla.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve in northeasterly direction towards Orissa.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over south Orissa from today, the 20^th May and GangeticWest Bengal. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20^th and 21^st May 2010. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010.

JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

JTWC warning
------------------------

201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z

Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 16 .. Laila Inland over Andhra.

JTWC warning
---------------------------

200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHENNAI AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM A
RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCT FROM CHENNAI. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR
SOUTH-EASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, 
WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z,
210300Z AND 210900Z. 

JTWC projected path
------------------------------

Satellite shot 
-----------------------
The weakened laila system will now take the path suggested by JTWC as it is in the grip of strong S-W to N-E Upper air current.
This N-E movement will surely bring the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast, as expected by some MODELS on 23-May.

IMD warning: 13:30 hrs
--------------------------------------

The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010 l near latitude 15.7⁰N and long. 80.5⁰E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 30 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.

            The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla between 2-4 pm of today.

            

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.

           

            Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

            Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and  communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.  People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic WestBengal from today, the 20^th May and 21^st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20^th and 21^st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

            According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea.  In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.  However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 ... Now over land

IMD Warning
------------------------
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST

The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.5⁰N and long. 80.5⁰E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 50 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla by today, the 20^th May 2010 afternoon.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.

Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & EastGodavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastalOrissa and Gangetic West Bengal from today, the 20^th May and 21^st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20^th and 21^st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010.

IMD observed track & projected path
-------------------------------------------------

Satellite shot at 1pm IST
--------------------------------------
Showing signs of weakening

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 16

JTWC path
--------------------------

JTWC warning
---------------------------

200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E
IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH
DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z.

Satellite shot at 11am IST
-----------------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 15 ... Very near to Andhra coast

JTWC warning
--------------------------

200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E
IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH
DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

IMD warning
-----------------------

The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.0⁰N and long. 81.0⁰E, about 120 km northeast of Nellore, 100 km southeast of Ongole and 120 km south of Machilipatnam.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam by afternoon of 20^thMay 2010. The system is showing sign of weakening due to increase of wind shear and land interaction.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over north TamilNadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching 100-110 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during the same period. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West & East Godavaridistricts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: (Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage tothatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.

Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: According to NWP model predictions, the system is likely to move northeastwards across Orissa andWest Bengal after the landfall. The enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa andGangetic West Bengal from today, the 20^th May and 21^st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmphlikely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20^th and 21^st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20^th May 2010.

IMD projected path
--------------------------------

Latest satellite shot 7:30am IST
----------------------------------------------

South-west Monsoon
-------------------------------
We can see monsoon clouds over S-W Srilanka and very near to S-W coast of Kerala. As expected monsoon will break over Kerala on 21 or 22-May or Even today.
This showers may last till 27-May, then there'll be a break before the FULL fledged S-W monsoon current breaks in over entire Kerala coast around 30-May.