Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 16

JTWC path
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JTWC warning
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200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E
IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH
DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z.

Satellite shot at 11am IST
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