Posted Wednesday Night:
Na Nauk has tracked NW, and is located at 17.5N and 65.9E...core estimated winds at 55-60 knts and estimated pressure is 983 mb..
System will track west from Thursday, and move towards Oman...System will weaken from its strongest phase, and may strike lower than Cat 1. Na Nauk may cross Oman coast near Masira island in the region between Sur and Khaluf on Saturday.
Muscat may get intermittent rains from Friday.
For Mumbai, the best would be for the system to first cross west of 65E. That would "detach" the SW winds from being engulfed, and would be free to flow SW into the West coast of India.
Hopefully, the 65E boundary would be crossed by Thursday night, and revival of Monsoon would start from Friday/Saturday.
In the meantime, some convective thunder cells are likely to pop up around Mumbai and Pune on Thursday..giving the region a hit/miss chance. Convective chances are good in Madhya Mah. and Marthwada.
From: www.vagaries.in
Na Nauk has tracked NW, and is located at 17.5N and 65.9E...core estimated winds at 55-60 knts and estimated pressure is 983 mb..
System will track west from Thursday, and move towards Oman...System will weaken from its strongest phase, and may strike lower than Cat 1. Na Nauk may cross Oman coast near Masira island in the region between Sur and Khaluf on Saturday.
Muscat may get intermittent rains from Friday.
For Mumbai, the best would be for the system to first cross west of 65E. That would "detach" the SW winds from being engulfed, and would be free to flow SW into the West coast of India.
Hopefully, the 65E boundary would be crossed by Thursday night, and revival of Monsoon would start from Friday/Saturday.
In the meantime, some convective thunder cells are likely to pop up around Mumbai and Pune on Thursday..giving the region a hit/miss chance. Convective chances are good in Madhya Mah. and Marthwada.
From: www.vagaries.in
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