Cyclone Nanauk - Intensifies further but may not reach Oman coast !!

"After Cyclone Nanauk crosses west of 65E, the S-W monsoon winds will again gain strength and reach S-W coast" ... http://goo.gl/inPscS
"Monsoon power house - The Mascarene high is in a very diffused stage with 1020hPa near Mauritius." ... http://goo.gl/ZRYXLM

11:30am, analysis of Cyclone Nanauk suggests that it is continuing to move in N-W direction.
Slight intensification observed during past 12hrs.
Pressure around 977 mb
Winds upto 115 kmph
Present position is plotted here...

11:30am, Visible photo shows cloud structure of Cyclone Nanauk.
But deep convective activity is now witnessed around it center with cloud temps touching -81.7C
Heavy Monsoon rain ALL along Kerala, Karnataka coast.

JTWC report at 8:30am
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112359Z 
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION 
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONG (30 
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY HINDERING 
THE DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO A REDUCTION OF FORECAST INTENSITY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TC 02A TO 
PEAK AT 65 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VWS AND 
POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL WEAKEN TC 02A QUICKLY, LEADING TO 
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DUE TO TRACK AND INTENSITY 
UNCERTAINTY AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
120000Z IS 18 FEET.

Forecast 

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NAVGEM model expects the Cyclone to come near to Oman coast then get stagnant for 2 days and loose energy and fizzle out on 16/17-Jun.

GFS model expects the Cyclone to weaken drastically in next 72hrs (15-Jun) over N Arabian sea. Also suggests that good S-W monsoon winds striking #Mumbai coast as well on 15/16-Jun !!