Cyclone Nilam - Small drift seen towards N-W in past 6hrs

5:30pm, Latest Satellite IR image .. shows that the Core is intact and Heavy convective activity seen again.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same.
JTWC continues to predict a Central/North Tamilnadu landfall on evening of 31-Oct.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST

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POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z 
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED 
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI 
ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A 
LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 
36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z 
IS 18 FEET.