The monsoon has covered good ground to make up for most of the delayed onset forced by tropical cyclone Phet, reaching Karwar on the west coast on Monday.
UNDER WATCH
Conditions are favourable for its further advance over some parts of Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next three days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Tuesday.
The system had not advanced beyond the northern limit aligned southwest to northeast along Karwar, Agumbe, Hassan, Bangalore, Cuddapah, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok reached on Monday, the IMD said.
The northward progress from here into Mumbai would be watched carefully. Indications are that the arrival over Mumbai could get delayed beyond the scheduled June-10 timeline. According to international model prognosis, this would be more than made up by a monsoon surge to follow with the Bay of Bengal too getting into the act.
The monsoon flows are shown to strengthen from Thursday with the likely formation of a full-blown offshore trough along the west coast.
The Bay of Bengal has spun up a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, which is forecast to intensify as a “low”.
This would track west and cross close to the Chennai coast.
The system would continue to track to the west and emerge into the Arabian Sea where the strengthening flows would help intensify the system and push it northward along the coast, according to international model outlook.
WESTERLY TROUGH
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the intensified system would be appropriated by a westerly trough dipping into the south and pulled up towards Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15. In fact, the ECMWF sees the westerly trough making a “double dip” – into the Arabian Sea as explained above and even into the Bay of Bengal across the peninsula – to drive the monsoon to peak activity.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too sees the Arabian Sea system heading towards the Mumbai-south Gujarat coast.
However, Global Forecasting System model of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy has a slightly different take on this.
According to this model, the northward-moving weather system may split, with one sibling spinning away into the outer seas towards the Oman coast. The other one would track India's west coast and wheel towards the Mumbai-Gujarat coast.
What is apparently becoming a foregone conclusion is the possibility for heavy rains over the Mumbai-south Gujarat-west Madhya Pradesh region from June 15.
On Tuesday, the remnant “low” from erstwhile super cyclone Phet lay over northwest Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarkhand.
During the last 24 to 48 hours since Phet washed ashore and crossed into northwest India, widespread rainfall has been reported from many parts in the region.
While the system had interacted with a prevailing western disturbance, the IMD sees another westerly system drifting into the region over the next three days.
The ongoing rainfall in the northwest had driven away “top heat” further south and southeast to over pockets of east Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The highest maximum temperature of 44.7 deg Celsius was recorded at Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
An IMD forecast has warned of isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and over the Northeastern States during the next two days.
Thunder squalls may occur at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
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