Friday, October 24, 2014
Latest analysis show a intensification to "almost" a Depression now, but the present pressure is around 1003mb.
Presently located at 11.7 N , 60.9 E.
Most models predict a intensification to a Cyclone in next 48hrs and slowly drift W-N-W or N-W.
Either the COAMPS model or the HWRF model can become true !!
COAMPS suggests a Cyclone and track W-N-W towards Yemen coast during next 3/4 days !
HWRF predicts a N-W movement, intensify to Cyclone and reach up to S Oman coast around 29/30-Oct.
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/grad.rxml [What is gradient wind?]
The Gradient wind analysis is the indicator of what is observed about the prevailing wind in the southern parts of India, especially in TN and Kerala
The WML in AS is expected to become depression and then to cyclone , because of the feeder from strong wind system. Still the influence of SWM over North Indian Ocean around India is valid.
NEM is still to put a foot in TN
Nungambakkam = 78.1mm
Airport = 85.8mm
IWM Polichalur = 66.9mm
Today, the low-level circulation is seen along S-E coast Tamilnadu and adjoining Gulf Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/7kApJ
During next 2 days, the easterlies is expected to be concentrated along N,central Tamilnadu coast and S Andhra .
HEAVY rain ahead for interior,S,w-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats Kerala and S,S-W,S-central Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/7kAum
Midnight today, early morning of 25-Oct..
HEAVY rain for S Andhra coast, N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai .. http://ow.ly/i/7kAwx
S-E Bay is expected to pop a strong circulation on Sunday, 26-Oct ... and expected to drift West !! http://ow.ly/i/7kAAi
Analysis suggest that S-W-central Arabian sea LOW is still persisting as a LOW and not organized.
GFS model continue to suggest a Cyclone strength in next 72 hrs over W-central or West Arabian sea.
This slow moving system "can" make a landfall as Cyclone along South Oman coast on 30-Oct
Dissipate over N-W Arabian sea itself around that time.
9am, Good convective activity seen along the system, but not orgazined.
Chennai - 6:40am, more rain pushing in and expected to last till 9am.
RT @fabwrite: It rained through the night & it's still raining.. @chennaiweather is it a holiday for schools today? @weatherofindia 5:53am
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Analysis show a big low, mid-level circulation over S-central Arabian sea.
This is persisting there during past 2 days and now the pressure over the system is around 1007mb.
During next 3/4 days, GFS expects a N-N-W movement with instensification upto a Cyclone.
But ECMWF model predicts a Gujarat coast landfall round 29-Oct.
12:30pm, visible shows less organization and good convective activity around the system.
Meanwhile, N-E monsoon is expected to be active along Chennai, Tamilnadu coast and interior zones, S Andhra during next 2 days.
Chennai - 8:33am, warm and sunny, but rain expected around noon! Heavy rain seen along central coast Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/7jJwh
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
#chennai - 9:29pm, sharp shower now over Polichalur zone.
RT @fabwrite: #Chennai - Rain clouds over Kathipara Junction at 2.30pm @weatherofindia @chennaiweather http://t.co/ZRViyM9SKX (3:55pm)
3:30pm, Heavy T showers over central,N-E,S Tamilnadu, S Kerala.
While S-central Arabian sea circulation persists.. http://ow.ly/i/7j6wC
Fresh weak low-level circulation has popped over S-S-W Bay and expected to drift to Central Tamilnadu coast in 40hrs http://ow.ly/i/7j6Dc
The BIG low-level circulation over S-central Arabian sea persists and expected to drift N-W slowly during next 4 days !
From morning of 23-Oct, HEAVY showers expected to push into N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai ... due to today's S-S-W Bay circulation.
Scattered rain for Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand.