Friday, November 28, 2014

9:30am, most of Kerala, Tamilnadu, S Karnataka is cloudy now.
Showers continue along S-E,central-coast Tamilnadu ..

Chennai - 11am, continue to be cloudy with winds at times. Temperature is 28.4 C now. NO rain expected till today evening !
Chennai - If the present S-W Bay circulation moves W,W-N-W, then Showers will push into city from evening, late-evening today!

Now the S-W Bay circulation is seen over S-W Bay along N-E Srilanka ... 
At present wind gusts seen along central,S-E,S coast Tamilnadu, Gulf Mannar from North.

Latest GFS expects the circulation to persist over same zone for 2 days and fizzle out.
Remember so far this Bay circulation has proved most models wrong!

GFS predicts heavy showers to persist for S-E,central coast and S,S-central Tamilnadu till Saturday evening.. 
GFS predicts that, for next 2 days the rain will be confined below 12N of Tamilnadu coast (upto Pondicherry coast) .
For next 2 days - GFS also expects LESS or NO rain for N-coast Tamilnadu and Chennai !!

But BBC model suggests HEAVY rain for N,central coast Tamilnadu, Chennai from today evening to Sunday noon.. 
BBC model suggests showers for S-coast Andhra as well from today late-evening till Sunday morning !... 

Weather Instagram at November 28, 2014 at 09:40AM

Karaikal - 7:33am, steady drizzle. Moderate showers now at 8:35am. #weather

from Instagram

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Weather Instagram at November 27, 2014 at 08:49PM

Nagercoil - 8:11pm, raining here! So the expected showers over S Tamilnadu has started. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at November 27, 2014 at 07:36PM

Karaikal beach taken at 6 pm. The sea was quite rough. #weather

from Instagram

Now, the S-W Bay circulation is seen along S,S-E Srilanka ... 

GFS expects this circulation to move North upto S-E,central-coast of Tamilnadu in next 24hrs... 
By Saturday, an easterlies trough will be established along central,N-coast Tamilnadu and a weak circulation over Gulf Mannar.
This is how it'll look like on Saturday morning ... 

By evening today into Friday, HEAVY rain expected over S,S-E-coast and central coast (below 12N) Tamilnadu ... 
1:30pm, central,S-E Tamilnadu is already cloudy with some moderate showers around ... 
HEAVY rain alert for S-E,central-coast of Tamilnadu on Friday, Saturday !
Afternoon T showers for S,central Tamilnadu.

For N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai and S Andhra coast...
Moderate Showers expected on Friday.
Heavy expected to push in on Saturday.

On Saturday/Sunday, the circulation, LOW is expected to push into Tamilnadu coast !

Weather Instagram at November 27, 2014 at 10:44AM

Chennai - 10:43am, cloudy and warm. At times windy. #weather

from Instagram

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Meanwhile, most places in N,N-W,N-central India is having below normal night temps...
Allahabad = 10 C
Delhi = 9 C
Lucknow = 8 C.

Badlapur today had a cool morning after a long time, 17.2 C.
Pune, Nashik = 12.5 C
Mumbai = 21 C.
For N,N-W India, a weak W.D system is expected to affect from tomorrow mid-morning... 
And another W.D trough is expected to affect N,central Pakistan and N,N-W India on Sunday, but less rain forecast for Indian zones!

Tomorrow, rain or snow expected over Kashmir and N Himachal due to W.D.
Analysis indicate the S Bay circulation is now along 5th parallel South of Srilanka ... 

GFS expects the present circulation to drift West along 5th parallel to S-E Arabian sea.
GFS also expects a fresh circulation along central Tamilnadu coast in the easterlies and rains expected to expand.. 

Both NAVGEM, GFS models expect the easterlies to affect coastal, interior Tamilnadu, Chennai from Friday morning.. 

Today, from now and before midnight... scattered T showers expected over S-tip,S Tamilnadu and some into S Kerala as well.
Heavy rain expected to start along S-E,S Tamilnadu from tomorrow evening ! ... 
From Friday morning, heavy rain expected for S-E,central-coast, S,central Tamilnadu.

central,S-E, N-central coast of Tamilnadu is in for HEAVY rain on Friday, Saturday !
#Chennai and N-coast Tamilnadu is expected to get showers only on/from Saturday morning or noon !

Weather Instagram at November 26, 2014 at 02:27PM

Nagercoil - 2:15pm, after a warm noon, now getting ready for a evening T shower. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at November 26, 2014 at 02:25PM

Karaikal - 8:24am, " Dark as evening here ".. Showers expected to start from tomorrow afternoon. #weather

from Instagram

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Easterly wave propagation

 This is the first easterly wave reaching TN coast for this season.  This may be considered as NEM .  The troughs in easterly is vivid and it may bring rainfall to southern coastal regions of TN.
The propagation of easterly wave is shown in the chart.
Dundee image also depicts the propagation from far east. [see wavy cloud pattern]

During past 7 days (till 22-Nov)...
N,N-central,E-central,E India are colder than usual, while W India was hotter.. 

HOT day temperatures to continue along W India, especially over Gujarat, W,N-W Maharastra for next 2 days... 
Meanwhile COLD mornings to continue over N,N-W,N-central, E,E-central,central India during next 2/3 days!

Monday morning,  Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) recorded a min temp of 4.3 C
LOW temps On Monday morning...
Delhi = 9 C
Lucknow, Hissar = 7 C
Srinagar goes below Zero, records -1 C.

Low-level circulation seen over S Bay mouth along 5th parallel followed by a good easterlies seen upto 90E... 
This S Bay circulation is expected to drift West and push into S Srilanka, Gulf Mannar on Thursday... 
The easterlies is expected to reach most of Tamilnadu coast on Thursday evening.
Heavy rain ahead on 28,29,30-Nov for coast,interior TN

T showers expected over S Tamilnadu "again" from late-evening today !!
Entire S,S-E coast, central coast Tamilnadu is in for Heavy rain from Thursday evening... 
By Thursday night or Friday mid-morning... showers will reach N-coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Weather Instagram at November 24, 2014 at 06:54PM

Nagercoil - 5:22pm, getting ready for a thunder shower. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at November 24, 2014 at 02:30PM

Tirunelveli - 2:20pm, again a fully cloudy day. Light drizzle now and light rain ahead. #weather

from Instagram

Sunday, November 23, 2014

When is the next W.D to affect N,N-W India?? May be on Thursday, 27-Nov ... 

Analysis show a low-level circulation seen over Sea just south of Kanyakumari ... 
There's also another low-level circulation seen over S Bay along 5th parallel !
This is expected to drift West.

4:30pm, More showers popping over S Tamilnadu and T showers seen along N Kerala, S coast Karnataka ... 

Some more detail about present rainfall over Southern districts of Tamilnadu ... 

Till Tuesday noon... less showers forecast for most of Tamilnadu.
As the next S Bay circulation moves towards coast... Rain is expected to be back over S Tamilnadu on 27-Nov.
After a long gap... showers are expected for N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai on 28,29-Nov... 

Southern district rainfall

The sequences of [trough] low seen over northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere is depicted in this chart distinctly. This may be the last sequence of trough during this retreating monsoon season for deep south districts Kumari , Nellai & Thoodi.

The low engulfing the southern tip of Indian main land [i.e Kumari, Nellai and Thoothukudi district] and adjoining coastal areas of neighboring coastal districts is to give light to moderate rainfall.
Flooding in some places is inevitable.

Dundee Sat imagery 23.11.2014 / 09Z

தாமிரபரணியில் வெள்ளம் என்பது நிச்சயம். தினமும் வெள்ள நீர்
[3000 கன அடி ] அளவுக்கு கடலில் சென்று வீணாகும்.
[நன்றி : பொ. ப. து / பொறியாளர் திரு. எஸ் ஜி எம் ]

As of now Tirunelveli district recorded 64cm rainfall against 34 cm Normal and Thoothukudi district  recorded 48 cm against 31cm.Normal.