Chennai - 9pm, moderate to heavy rain pushing into city. A long wet night ahead into morning.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Chennai - 6pm, drizzle started over Polichalur zone. Rain intensity expected to increase towards early hours of Saturday.
Heavy rain seen upto 70 to 100km S-E,E from city.
Drizzle possible in next 1.5 hr!
Chennai - 10:25am, warm now. Heavy rain has pushed up to 150 km over SE, E and ENE.
Expected to push in around late-evening.
Will it ??
If the consolidation of S Bay circulation begins from Saturday, then there'll be less or no rain along Tamilnadu coast and Chennai.
As of now, models suggest moderate to heavy showers along central , N coast Tamilnadu, Chennai from today evening till Sunday. .!
Present S Bay elongated circulation has persisted and drifted slightly to west... http://ow.ly/i/7posc
During next 2 or 3 days this S Bay circulation is expected to consolidate into Marked LOW over the same zone.
This system after 3-Nov is expected to drift N-W and develop into a Depression or even Cyclone Priya and strike central, N Tamilnadu coast
Due to this present S Bay circulation...
Showers forecast along N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #chennai .
Due to "expected" consolidation of the system over S Bay.. the forecast showers for Tamilnadu coast on today, 1-Nov "may not materialize".
This is the model prediction of Cyclone Priya or Deep Depression striking central, N coast Tamilnadu on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7pp2H
IR at 1am suggests that the entire circulation is exposed now and moderate convective activity seen only along N-E bands of the system.
Now it's just a Deep depression.
Cloudy skies with scattered light rain already prevailing over Gujarat, S,S-W Rajasthan and S-E Pakistan.
In next 24hrs... scattered moderate showers expected along S,S-W,W Gujarat, S,S-E Pakistan and into S,S-W Rajasthan.
As of now "NO Cyclone landfall expected over W,S-W Gujarat coast"
Thursday, October 30, 2014
4:55pm, Gloomy in Nagercoil with occasional drizzle till now from morning.
During past 24hrs, the Severe Cyclone has degraded to a Tropical storm now.
Pressure has risen from 959mb to 995.1mb.
Present wind is around 90 kmph.
12:30pm, IR shows that the system has tracked N-E and convective activity is also weak.
In next 42hrs, this is expected to weaken further and fizzle out over Sea itself near to Coast of Kutch and S Pakistan.
Moderate showers expected over S,S-W,W Gujarat and over S,S-E Pakistan on 31-Oct and 1-Nov.
Looks like the easterlies have picked up strength today in Karaikal.
10:33AM,Gusty wind here.
Chennai - wind has picked up over low-levels but the direction is from NE. In next 24 hrs it'll become ENE and rain will start pushing in.
Moderate showers will start pushing into central , N Tamilnadu coast , #Chennai from morning or noon of Friday.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7o2XP
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... http://ow.ly/i/7o31d
Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/7o3jG
Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... http://ow.ly/i/7nWGU
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!
N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday !
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWNW
NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWRx
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! http://ow.ly/i/7nWTb
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. http://ow.ly/i/7nWV7
Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity)
Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.
Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Scattered showers may push into N,central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai around morning, mid-morning.
5:30pm, less T showers today over Tamilnadu. T showers seen over S Tip, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nikQ
A weak W.D circulation over N-central Pakistan is giving scattered showers over N Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.. http://ow.ly/i/7nix8
During next 24hrs, the W.D circulation is expected to drift E-N-E and vanish.
5:30pm, Severe smog visibility less than 500 meters in Kabarwala, S Punjab... ow.ly/i/7niRC
3:25pm, Rain in Lahore, Pakistan... Due to WD... ow.ly/i/7niZk