Sunday, April 20, 2014

Monsoon Watch - 2   (20th April 2014) 
(Request see Article on Big Laptop screen as Maps and Charts will be better Understood and have been put up with lot of effort..Thanks)

Lengthy Article, please see in Vagaries..

Massive thunderheads developed in evening period at Badlapur today.


At evening 7pm ,gusty cool winds from the east direction blown the dust in the air. But no rain was occurred. 


Before that it has hot in afternoon period in Interior North Kokan. Some max temp below from the region :

Badlapur max temp 38.6°C with min humidity of 24% today. 

Thane max temp 37.9°C with min humidity of 42% today.

Karjat estimated max temp 41.6°C with min humidity of 20% today.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Fresh snowfall in Kedar valley - The Times of India http://t.co/WNJ531Ep5X

Friday, April 18, 2014

#HOT at 4pm...
Nagpur, Thiruchirapalli = 40 C
Ahmedabad, Jamshedpur = 39 C
Kolkata = 37 C
Hyderabad = 34 C

40s club of 17-Apr ...
Barmer = 40.4C
Jamshedpur = 41.1C
Nagpur = 41.2C
Akola = 42.1C
Hanamkonda = 42.5C
Rentachintala = 43 C
Vellore = 40 C


5:30pm, Massive T showers seen from central Uttarpradesh to N,S-W Maharastra and into N-W,W,central,S-W Karnataka. http://ow.ly/i/5hUCq 
5:30pm, T showers also over W-ghats of N-central Kerala, W,N-central Andhra, central Odisha, S-E Rajasthan, W Kashmir http://ow.ly/i/5hUCq
5:30pm, T showers also seen over N-W, S Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5hUCq

RT @GanpatTeli1: Rain and storm in delhi. @weatherofindia. 5:11am

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Outlook for the coming Weekend, Friday,18th, Saturday19th and Sunday 20th April;

Friday: A-4 will be precipitating in the Northern Pakistan areas of Punjab and Upper Sindh and parts of South Sindh. Many Central Sindh cities like Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad are likely to get rains. 

In India also, the WD will precipitate in Kashmir, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and some severe storms in Rajasthan and North MP.
The higher reaches of the Hill states are likely to get snow. Heavier showers in Western Nepal.
That means, continuing below normal day temperatures in the North.
A trough, and a semi formed LWD will get thunder showers to Southern Maharashtra and interior Karnataka. 
Belgaum can get the evening thunder shower.

Bangalore too can possibly get the long waited thunder shower on Friday.

Saturday:
A-4 moves east, and keeps the Sindh dry. Sporadic showers continue in Pak Punjab.
Northern India get another day of rains, which decrease by Saturday night. Rains in Punjab, Haryana and Northern Rajasthan plains will continue for another day.
Raipur can get another Thunder shower on Saturday/Sunday.
A-4 weakens and withdraws from the region. Rains almost cease in the North, bringing out the sun and heat from Monday.

Southwards, Thunder showers will lash Southern Maharashtra and Marathwada. The "line " of Thunde cells developing will be Southwards from Southern Maharashtra into adjoining N.I. Karataka, which too will get thunder showers. But rains decrease in S.I..Karnataka.

As the WD disintegrates , Kathmandu can get light showers on Saturday. Otherwise we see the days pleasant around 30c, heating up suddenly from Sunday.
Sunday:

But its Maharshtra special for Sunday,with the entire state barring Konkan poised to get thunder showers.Thunder showers cooling Nagpur and Aurangabad on Sunday.

taken from Vagaries. City forecast in vagaries

Convective cloud formation

The high pressure system in southern hemisphere is formed just 4300 km south of Cape Comerin and has lesser strength to form cross equatorial flow.  However it induced or influenced SOUTHERLY flow winds near Comrin. The western side of southern tip is slowly heated and small extent convective clouds are formed. Similarly medium level convective clouds [CTT &Minus 40 C] are formed over Rayalaseema, NE parts of Karnataka, and adjoining place capable of producing TS with 2-3 cm rainfall

South West Monsoon 2014 - update #1

The feared "El Nino" - South West Monsoon killer !!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
El Nino and IOD update by BOM on 8-Apr-2014...
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
Taken from http://www.bom.gov.au/

Central, N-W India Heat LOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As of today, the Central, East, N-W India LOW is around 1006mb.
This heat low is expected to deepen to around 994mb by end of May.
At present the progress is moderate, due to less heating over N,N-W India marred by successive Western Disturbances.


North South inland low-level trough or Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
At this time, the North South low-level trough or line of wind discontinuity is expected to be established from Central,E-central India to South Kerala, South Tamilnadu.
Today, the circulation is seen over S-E Madhyapradesh and trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu and expected to persist during next 2 days, and it has to persist even more.


Bay and Arabian sea surface temperature.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sea surface temperature of S,S-W,S-E Arabian sea is around 30 C
Same as the case with S,S-W,S-E Bay.



Bay LOW pressure.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
South Bay is expected to pop a LOW pressure system before end of April.
But latest models suggest NO Bay low till end of April.

Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Generator or Monsoon winds, the "Mascarene high pressure system" in far South Indian ocean.
At present the core pressure is around 1028mb (expected to be around 1034mb by mid May) and positioned slightly to the East.
The winds from the Mascarene high pressure system is expected to reach Equator by around end of 10-May. At present strong winds are just about starting from the system.


JAMSTEC (Japan) Long Range Forecast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAD News !!
Long range forecast model suggests below normal rains for most of India, except for South tip, Central and Eastern zones.

IMD monsoon forecast coming up on 25-Apr-2014

2:30pm, T showers seen over W-central Uttarpradesh, S-W Rajasthan, N,S-E Madhyapradesh, N,central,S-W Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/5h6sL 
2:30pm, T showers also seen over N chatisgarh, S,W,N-E Odisha, N-E Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/5h6sL

#HOT at 3:15pm,
Hyderabad = 41 C
Jamshedpur = 40 C
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Thiruchirapalli = 39 C
Kolkata, Patna = 38 C

Nagpur - 3:10pm, Temperature = 38 C.
Temperature reduced due to T showers in vicinity ... you can see that here ... http://ow.ly/i/5h6sL

At 3:20pm...
#Bengaluru - 36 C  (feels like 36.3 C, Humid = 31%)
#Chennai - 35 C  (feels like 39.6 C, Humid = 47%)

#HOT 40s of 16-Apr...
Barmer = 43.6C
Allahabad = 41.5C
Gaya = 41C
Bankura = 42.1C
Rajkot= 40.3C
Akola, Hanamkonda= 42C
Rentachintala = 43.2C

W.D and widespread showers for N,N-W,central India !!


Today, a mid-level W.D circulation, trough seen over N,central Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/5h0RW 
This mid-level W.D trough is expected to persist and drift East into N India during next 15hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/5h12W 

This upcoming W.D has already made the atmosphere more unstable over N,N-central India !
An W.D induced low-level circulation seen over central Pakistan ... this is bringing showers to N,N-E,E Rajasthan .. http://ow.ly/i/5h1bU 
This low-level circulation is expected to drift into central,N-central Rajasthan in next 24hrs... more rain ahead for N-central India !

From today evening, showers for W,central,E Rajasthan into N Madhyapradesh, W Uttarpradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/5h1g4 
Thru Friday and Saturday, scattered showers for most of Rajasthan, N Madhyapradesh, Haryana, #Delhi and into W,central Uttarpradesh !
More widespread showers for Kashmir, Himachal and Punjab on tonight, Friday and Saturday (19-Apr) ... http://ow.ly/i/5h1nu 

This W.D system is expected to clear out from N,N-W, N-central India from late evening of Saturday !

12:30pm, Showers seen over Himachal, Uttarakhand, W Uttarpradesh, E Rajasthan ... http://ow.ly/i/5h1xj 

T showers ahead for Karnataka, central Chatisgarh, Jharkhand - #Election day


Today, a low-level circulation seen over S Madhyapradesh and its trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5gZXy 
The low-level line of wind discontinuity is expected to persist from S,S-E Madhyapradesh to S Tamilnadu into Gulf Mannar during next 24hrs.

Today, tomorrow... T showers expected to persist over most of W-ghats,S,central Kerala and into S,S-W Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/5h04s 
Today as well T showers expected over S,S-W,N,N-central Karnataka after 2pm ... #election #vote 
Today, T showers also expected over Jharkhand, N Odisha, N,N-W,N-E Andhra and into N,central Chatisgarh ... http://ow.ly/i/5h0dA 
T showers over N Karnataka, S,S-E Maharastra, Chatisgarh, N-E Andhra and Jharkhand is expected to continue on Friday as well !

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Many parts of Peninsular India under TS activity..


Satellite Visible shot of INDIAN OCEAN - FULL DISC ... http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_met7_big.jpg 
Updated almost every 3 hrs !!

This image was taken at 2:30pm IST

4:30pm, Sat visible shows T showers over S tip Tamilnadu, most of W-ghats Kerala, S,S-central,N Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/5gjND 
4:30pm, T showers also over S Maharastra, N,N-central,N-E Andhra, S Odisha, N Chatisgarh, S Jharkhand into W Bengal http://ow.ly/i/5gjND

IMD Chennai's " Storm Project " ...
Check this out ... http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/storm/stormmain.htm
Daily rainfall ... http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/storm/rainfall.htm

#HOT at 2:10pm,
Nagpur = 43 C
Ahmedabad = 41 C
Hyderabad, Patna, Thiruchirapalli, Varanasi = 39 C
Kolkata = 38 C

At 2:10pm,
#Chennai - 34 C  (feels like 39.4 C)
#Bengaluru - 37 C  (feels like 36.6 C)

#HOT 40s of 15-Apr...
Jodhpur = 40.5C
Kota = 40.9C
Akola = 41.3C
Rentachintala = 43C
Hanamkonda = 40.3C
#Delhi - 12pm, Airport reports "Rain with thunderstorm"
Temperature = 28 C
RT @KumarVimal: @weatherofindia West #Delhi - It was raining with thunder an strong wind in the morning. Clear sun right now (1:08pm)

12:30pm, Cloudy over central,N-E Rajasthan, Showers clearing from Kashmir, Himachal ... http://ow.ly/i/5gcqW 
12:30pm, Cloudy with rain seen over W,N-W Uttarpradesh and Uttarakhand .. http://ow.ly/i/5gcqW

More W.D rain ahead for N,N-central,N-W India including #Delhi on Good Friday, 18-Apr ... http://ow.ly/i/5gcEF 

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 6.50pm, Cloud formation started in the afternoon, Cloudy skies in the evening.. http://t.co/VyWEFBarBc 

Present weak W.D system is expected to give rise to a strong mid-level trough over Pakistan on 17-Apr ... http://ow.ly/i/5fyC9 
A W.D low-level circulation is also expected over central Pakistan on 17-Apr, and expected to drift East ... http://ow.ly/i/5fyJj 
On 17-Apr, a good W.D upper-level circulation and trough expected along N,N-central Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/5fz2t 

Cloudy day with Scattered showers to continue over Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand and some parts of Haryana, Punjab on tomorrow !
17-Apr, HEAVY, scattered rain due to upcoming W.D is expected over Kashmir, Himachal, Haryana, N,E Punjab, Uttarakhand and even for #Delhi.
On 17-Apr, due to W.D... showers expected into W Uttarpradesh, N,N-E Rajasthan and N Madhyapradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/5fzxY 

6:30pm, Cloudy with scattered showers continue over Himachal, Kashmir, N Punjab and parts of Haryana ... http://ow.ly/i/5fzP1 
Malout - 5:54pm, "Cloudy since Afternoon Passing clouds from West TO East "
RT @zenrainman: Rain havoc in Wayanad - The Hindu http://t.co/y5hxkiH2Zl 

Kerala - fairly widespread heavy rain on 14-Apr...
Kanjirappally = 5 cm

Peermade, Ambalavayal = 4 cm

Karnataka - Heavy rain on 14-Apr...
Napoklu = 5 cm

Ponnampet, Chitradurga = 4 cm
#HOT even at 5pm...
Lucknow = 41 C
Ahmedabad = 40 C
Hyderabad, Jaipur, Nagpur, Patna, Thiruchirapalli = 38 C

Temperatures at 5pm,
#Delhi = 35 C (feels 32.9C)
#Kolkata = 36 C (feels 40.8C)
#Chennai = 32 C (feels 35.8C)
Bengaluru = 34 C (feels 34.1C)

At 4:40pm, #Mumbai = 29 C (feels like 31.4 C)

#HOT 40s of 14-Apr...
Barmer = 41.1C
Akola = 41.5C
Rentachintala = 42.9C
Bidar = 40C
Sholapur = 40.6C
Daltonganj = 40.2C

4:30pm, T showers have now popped over S,central Karnataka, W-ghats of S-W Karnataka and N,central Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/5fw7X