Friday, October 31, 2014

Chennai - 9pm, moderate to heavy rain pushing into city. A long wet night ahead into morning.

Weather Instagram at October 31, 2014 at 06:52PM

Kabarwala, S Punjab - After long gap Today i saw cloudy Sunset  its a Nilofar Affect.. #weather

from Instagram

Chennai - 6pm, drizzle started over Polichalur zone. Rain intensity expected to increase towards early hours of Saturday.

#Chennai - 4pm, Cloud cover getting heavy now!.
Heavy rain seen upto 70 to 100km S-E,E from city.
Drizzle possible in next 1.5 hr!
Next North Indian Ocean Cyclone will be named as "Ashobaa" and not "Priya".
Pls check here for list of names... 

Chennai - 10:25am, warm now. Heavy rain has pushed up to 150 km over SE, E and ENE.
Expected to push in around late-evening.
Will it ??

If the consolidation of S Bay circulation begins from Saturday, then there'll be less or no rain along Tamilnadu coast and Chennai.

As of now, models suggest moderate to heavy showers along central , N coast Tamilnadu, Chennai from today evening till Sunday. .!

Present S Bay elongated circulation has persisted and drifted slightly to west... 
During next 2 or 3 days this S Bay circulation is expected to consolidate into Marked LOW over the same zone.
This system after 3-Nov is expected to drift N-W and develop into a Depression or even Cyclone Priya and strike central, N Tamilnadu coast 

Today, 1-Nov.
Due to this present S Bay circulation... 
Showers forecast along N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #chennai .
Due to "expected" consolidation of the system over S Bay.. the forecast showers for Tamilnadu coast on today, 1-Nov "may not materialize".

This is the model prediction of Cyclone Priya or Deep Depression striking central, N coast Tamilnadu on 7-Nov... 

Update on 31-Oct...
Next Cyclone will be named as "Ashobaa" and not "Priya".

Nilofar - Where is it?? Almost fizzled out now !

IR at 1am suggests that the entire circulation is exposed now and moderate convective activity seen only along N-E bands of the system.
Now it's just a Deep depression.

Cloudy skies with scattered light rain already prevailing over Gujarat, S,S-W Rajasthan and S-E Pakistan.
In next 24hrs... scattered moderate showers expected along S,S-W,W Gujarat, S,S-E Pakistan and into S,S-W Rajasthan.
As of now "NO Cyclone landfall expected over W,S-W Gujarat coast"

Cyclone "NILOFAR" Closing on Landfall , Weakening Rapidly ..

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Now entering Gulf of Kutch

  1. NILOFAR now entering gulf of Kutch.
  2. The wind speed is ranging from 30 kts to 45 kts along Sindh delta region.
  3. KARACHI will be experiencing heavy precipitation

4:55pm, Gloomy in Nagercoil with occasional drizzle till now from morning.

Nilofar - Tropical storm now and will be dead over sea.

During past 24hrs, the Severe Cyclone has degraded to a Tropical storm now.
Pressure has risen from 959mb to 995.1mb.
Present wind is around 90 kmph.

12:30pm, IR shows that the system has tracked N-E and convective activity is also weak.

In next 42hrs, this is expected to weaken further and fizzle out over Sea itself near to Coast of Kutch and S Pakistan.
Moderate showers expected over S,S-W,W Gujarat and over S,S-E Pakistan on 31-Oct and 1-Nov.

Looks like the easterlies have picked up strength today in Karaikal.
10:33AM,Gusty wind here.

Chennai - wind has picked up over low-levels but the direction is from NE. In next 24 hrs it'll become ENE and rain will start pushing in.

Moderate showers will start pushing into central , N Tamilnadu coast , #Chennai from morning or noon of Friday.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Nilofar - "going down"

4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... 
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... 
Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. 

Weather Instagram at October 29, 2014 at 03:18PM

#chennai - 3pm, another dry day. Feels like early December. Stiff breeze from north. #weather

from Instagram

Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... 
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!

N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday ! 
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... 

NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... 
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! 
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. 

Nilofar - Will track N-E from now and weaken !

Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity) 

Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.

Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" intensifying Rapidly , a "CAT-4"cyclone

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

#Chennai - Today had a DRY day. Now low-level winds is from N-N-E and expected to change to E-N-E in 36 hrs S-S-E bay circulation moves west

Scattered showers may push into N,central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai around morning, mid-morning.

5:30pm, less T showers today over Tamilnadu. T showers seen over S Tip, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... 

A weak W.D circulation over N-central Pakistan is giving scattered showers  over N Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.. 
During next 24hrs, the W.D circulation is expected to drift E-N-E and vanish.

5:30pm, Severe smog visibility less than 500 meters in Kabarwala, S Punjab...

3:25pm, Rain in Lahore, Pakistan... Due to WD...