Friday, October 24, 2014

Moderate rain expected to push into #Chennai, N-coast Tamilnadu and along S-coast Andhra in next 7/8 hrs.

90A - Slowly taking shape and intensifying !


Latest analysis show a intensification to "almost" a Depression now, but the present pressure is around 1003mb.
Presently located at 11.7 N , 60.9 E.

Most models predict a intensification to a Cyclone in next 48hrs and slowly drift W-N-W or N-W.
Either the COAMPS model or the HWRF model can become true !!
COAMPS suggests a Cyclone and track W-N-W towards Yemen coast during next 3/4 days !
HWRF predicts a N-W movement, intensify to Cyclone and reach up to S Oman coast around 29/30-Oct.

NEM is to set in




http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/grad.rxml  [What is gradient wind?]
 The Gradient wind analysis is the indicator of what is observed about the prevailing wind in the southern parts of India, especially in TN and Kerala

The WML in AS is expected to become depression and then to cyclone , because of the feeder from strong wind system. Still the influence of SWM over North Indian Ocean around India is valid.

NEM is still to put a foot in TN




5:30pm, Cloudy over most of Maharastra, S,central Gujarat, Madhyapradesh due to 90A in Arabian sea ... http://ow.ly/i/7kNl4 
5:30pm, T showers along W-ghats Karnataka, W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu and S Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/7kNl4
RT @rajesh26: Mumbai: Should get relief showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cooler day with rain on Saturday. Saturday Max temp 25/26c. 
#Chennai - Rainfall till 8:30am...
Nungambakkam = 78.1mm
Airport = 85.8mm
IWM Polichalur = 66.9mm

Today, the low-level circulation is seen along S-E coast Tamilnadu and adjoining Gulf Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/7kApJ 
During next 2 days, the easterlies is expected to be concentrated along N,central Tamilnadu coast and S Andhra .

Before midnight...
HEAVY rain ahead for interior,S,w-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats Kerala and S,S-W,S-central Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/7kAum 
Midnight today, early morning of 25-Oct..
HEAVY rain for S Andhra coast, N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai .. http://ow.ly/i/7kAwx 

S-E Bay is expected to pop a strong circulation on Sunday, 26-Oct ... and expected to drift West !! http://ow.ly/i/7kAAi 

90A - still a LOW, disorganized and tracked W-N-W


Analysis suggest that S-W-central Arabian sea LOW is still persisting as a LOW and not organized.
GFS model continue to suggest a Cyclone strength in next 72 hrs over W-central or West Arabian sea.

This slow moving system "can" make a landfall as Cyclone along South Oman coast on 30-Oct 
[or]
Dissipate over N-W Arabian sea itself around that time.

9am, Good convective activity seen along the system, but not orgazined.

Chennai - 6:40am, more rain pushing in and expected to last till 9am.

RT @fabwrite: It rained through the night & it's still raining.. @chennaiweather is it a holiday for schools today? @weatherofindia 5:53am

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Prevailing wind and TN rainfall

                                                                                                                




22.10.2014 /04LT
The series of LOW in Indian Ocean and adjoining Ocean is the result of weak westerly originating from
south Indian Ocean pressure system.

The TMD chart is showing that.  

It is further withdrawal of SWM from below 8 Degree North i.e further SOUTH below INDIAN  MAINLAND MASS.[KANYAKUMARI]

This make EAST-WEST trough (in weak westerlies)which is the origin of rainfall in TN

The usual strengthening of  HIGH PRESSURE system over Asia (Siberia & neighborhood and the Tibetan HIGH at 5000m high.) is to follow to enhance NEly in TN

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 07:12PM

This is Bangalore at 4:30pm, " Strong drizzle at brigade road in Bangalore." #weather


from Instagram

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 02:55PM

#chennai - 2:50pm, round 2 of heavy T showers now lashing chromepet zone. #weather


from Instagram

90A - S-central Arabian sea LOW


Analysis show a big low, mid-level circulation over S-central Arabian sea.
This is persisting there during past 2 days and now the pressure over the system is around 1007mb.

During next 3/4 days, GFS expects a N-N-W movement with instensification upto a Cyclone.
But ECMWF model predicts a Gujarat coast landfall round 29-Oct.

12:30pm, visible shows less organization and good convective activity around the system.

Meanwhile, N-E monsoon is expected to be active along Chennai, Tamilnadu coast and interior zones, S Andhra during next 2 days.

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 10:54AM

#chennai - 10:20am, heavy rain over poonamalle. Also over madipakkam, Polichalur, chromepet zones. #weather


from Instagram

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 09:20AM

Pudukottai, Tamilnadu - 9am, heavy rain. #weather


from Instagram

Chennai - 8:33am, warm and sunny, but rain expected around noon! Heavy rain seen along central coast Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/7jJwh

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

#chennai - 9:29pm, sharp shower now over Polichalur zone.


RT @fabwrite: #Chennai - Rain clouds over Kathipara Junction at 2.30pm @weatherofindia @chennaiweather http://t.co/ZRViyM9SKX (3:55pm)

3:30pm, Heavy T showers over central,N-E,S Tamilnadu, S Kerala.
While S-central Arabian sea circulation persists.. http://ow.ly/i/7j6wC 

Fresh weak low-level circulation has popped over S-S-W Bay and expected to drift to Central Tamilnadu coast in 40hrs http://ow.ly/i/7j6Dc 
The BIG low-level circulation over S-central Arabian sea persists and expected to drift N-W slowly during next 4 days !

From morning of 23-Oct, HEAVY showers expected to push into N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai ... due to today's S-S-W Bay circulation.

Weather Instagram at October 22, 2014 at 01:53PM

#chennai - 1:50pm, Happy #Diwali !! City got some scattered light rain. Now some heavy rain over NW zones. #weather


from Instagram

Diwali 2014

Happy Diwali to all our followers, readers, friends and weather enthusiasts !! 

A weak upper-level W.D trough is expected to affect Kashmir on 23,24-Oct.
Scattered rain for Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand.