Friday, October 21, 2016

Update on 99B and "Chennai & Tamilnadu may not witness NEM this October"

Typhoon #Haima has made landfall around noon today ...

Now focus shifts to 99B in Bay, at present in central Bay as a LOW ... Low level circulation is exposed with convective activity over West ...
9pm, IR shows still convective activity is over W,SW.
It's pull effect is giving T showers over Kerala and S,central,SE Tamilnadu ...

99B is expected to gain intensity slowly with an initial movement of NE towards Myanmar coast.
And take a N or NNW movement in next 2 days ...
99B in next 2 days is expected to move NE, with moderate intensification into a Depression !
Shear is less in its NE direction ! ... 

During next 2 days.
Scattered T showers over central,S Kerala.
T showers also for W,central,central-coast, SE,S Tamilnadu ... 

October 21, 2016 at 09:45PM

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October 21, 2016 at 09:07PM

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Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon Haima, Bay - 99B and NE monsoon delay !

Typhoon #HAIMA is nearing China coast near to HongKong ... Landfall expected in next 18hrs .. .. 

This Typhoon has popped a LOW in our central Bay of Bengal as well, it is tracked as 99B ...
This 99B is trying to establish/consolidate even though the low-level wind gush is still happening from S Bay to that Typhoon ...
At present 99B is a LOW with pressure around 1004mb.
Expected movement is NE during next 2 days towards Myanmar coast !

99B, Models suggest a North or NW re-curve after nearing Myanmar coast ... this will even delay the easterlies "NE Monsoon" into SE Bay. 99B 's expected re-curve may not happen if it fizzles out along Myanmar coast along with Typhoon Haima over China !
Has to watch till 23-Oct.

During next 2 days, due to pull effect of 99B, Kerala can have SW Monsoon style showers and HEAVY T showers along W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu ...
During next 2 days, scattered T showers expected to pop over central,W,SE, S Tamilnadu !

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

October 18, 2016 at 10:57PM

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October 18, 2016 at 10:43PM

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Sunday, October 16, 2016

October 16, 2016 at 02:07PM

Midmorning weather photo from Kodaikanal. #weather

from Instagram

Saturday, October 15, 2016

October 15, 2016 at 11:42AM

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October 15, 2016 at 11:40AM

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Twins Sarika and Haima !!

Present low-level circulation near #Kerala coast is expected to drift South and then weaken further before drifting East on Mondday ..  , 

At present there are 2 storms in W Pacific. Typhoon #Sarika and Tropical storm #HAIMA "twins" ..  . 

During next 4 to 6 days, Winds and Moisture will be pulled towards these two Typhoons from S,central Bay.
Drying out #India and Delaying NEM ...

The wind gush thru S,central Andaman seas can bring HEAVY rains for S,central zones of Andaman Islands during next 4 days !

On Today and Sunday, HEAVY scattered T showers expected again for central,S Kerala, W-ghats Kerala & tamilnadu and W,NW,SW,S tamilnadu ...

N,Central,NW,E-central India can enjoy a Dry day and mild,cool night !
Early wintry feeling !

#Chennai - Can expect...
DRY days.
Partly cloudy from 10am to 1pm.
Mild nights.
No rain till 20/21-Oct 

When can we expect the onset of #NEM for Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai ??
A mini chance on #Diwali , 29-Oct !
We may have a record delay !

Friday, October 14, 2016

October 14, 2016 at 03:36PM

8am, Badlapur, good bye #monsoon and welcome #winter. #weather

from Instagram

End of SW Monsoon, next what ?

Take a look at latest water vapor satellite imagery.. DRY seen over most of #India except S.India. "END of SW #Monsoon 2016" ..
Latest analysis also suggests the same "DRY has set in over most of India" and N,NW winds are prevailing ! ..

Analysis show that elongated circulation is seen from NNE Bay to Central Bay.
A weak circulation along N-coast Kerala.. 
During next 2 days, the N-coast Kerala circulation is expected to drift SSW and place itself over SE-corner Arabian sea as weak circulation ..
Ideally the expected SE-corner Arabian sea circulation is a best scenario for the winds in Bay to become East around this time of year, but, this time TS Sarika in W Pacific is and Will hinder the easterlies flow into SE Bay !

Now coming to TS Sarika in W Pacific .. this is the expected track till 17-Oct.
GFS expects another TS or typhoon following this .. 
We can see that now and in 4 days the Winds will gush towards TS/Typhoon Sarika .
GFS expects another Typhoon in making followed by Sarika..

GFS model suggests that Easterlies will not push into SE Bay till 25-Oct.
N Tamilnadu, #Chennai may have Winter like condition from 18 to 24.
As of now, there's NO chance of North-East Monsoon till 24-Oct !

During next 2 / 3 days.
Heavy afternoon, late-evening T showers for W-ghats Kerala & Tamilnadu, NW,W,SW,S,S-central Tamilnadu..

October 13, 2016 at 11:15PM

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Thursday, October 13, 2016

October 13, 2016 at 04:12PM

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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

October 11, 2016 at 05:11PM

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October 11, 2016 at 05:05PM

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NorthEast Monsoon 2016 Forecast

Sunday, October 09, 2016

October 09, 2016 at 03:47PM

2:50pm, Pune.. Showers ! #weather

from Instagram

October 08, 2016 at 07:19PM

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Saturday, October 08, 2016

October 08, 2016 at 08:26PM

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