Thursday, October 21, 2010

Typhoon Clowns

More Bogus Hurricane Predictions From "Experts" - Is It Time To Hold Experts Criminally Negligent For Promoting Fraudulent Predictions?

After years of prediction failures, the experts powered up their climate models to have another go at. After these models kept predicting more frequent and intense hurricanes due to global warming, the actual results (see more here) were stunningly different than predicted:

Global_running_ace
The past hurricane predictions of the IPCC "scientists" has been found to be embarrassingly bad - 100% of the IPCC statements were found to be wrong.

Why are experts, climate models and the IPCC always so wrong on hurricane and other tropical storm predictions? Simple. The climate models used are worthless as prediction tools but are true perfection for ego-driven public relations, and the need for raising more research funds.

"Despite warnings by scientists that identifying an actual trend in storm variability is impossible due to a lack of reliable historical data, a new report in Nature Geoscience is being cited as a solid prediction of future trends in tropical cyclone activity. The other thing not mentioned is that this research is based on models of questionable accuracy....In it, the authors warn that there is precious little that can be predicted from past data. But this does not stop them from blithely predicting the future based on new “high-resolution” models."

"Once again, climate scientists are predicting future climate behavior based, not on empirical data, but on computer models. They go on to state that confidence in some of their predictions is low “owing to uncertainties in the large-scale patterns of future tropical climate change, as evident in the lack of agreement between the model projections of patterns of tropical SST changes.”

These researchers know that these widely publicized predictions have a very low probability of being correct, yet they are not held accountable for their demonstrably false proclamations. Does that sound far-fetched? Others are starting to think along the same lines.

Here's our prediction (sans model): at some point, a smart group of lawyers will figure out how to structure a class action lawsuit against the hurricane-clowns and their supporting institutions for the billions wasted, not only on the "models" research, but for all the wasted billions spent by businesses to prepare for non-existent hurricanes. Or, maybe it's possible to do a class-action on the mental anguish and fear caused by these false prophets? Or, maybe it will be a few states' attorney generals that go after the deep endowment/foundation pockets that incentivize bogus/fraudulent research. Certainly the FTC and/or FDA wouldn't allow fraudulent predictions like these to made by corporate concerns on any given number of subjects.

Courtesy:

1 comment:

  1. Rajan Alexander9:17 AM

    Thanx Kaneyen. The global warming crowd creates hysteria over many things, including supposedly increasing frequency of tropical cyclones. And as the ACE graph shows, these have no factual basis.

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