POSITION NEAR 18.5N 92.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 211533Z TRMM PASS AND A 211730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=4.0 FROM PGTW AT 211730Z AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04B HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND BY TAU 24, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET.
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